Russession of Russians in the Russian Empire. Where most lives Russian abroad

On December 18, the Planet celebrated the International Migrant Day, proclaimed by the UN General Assembly. It was on this day that the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and their families was adopted in 1990. Russia from this point of view is a unique country, because it is at the same time a large and "exporter" and "importer". We already wrote about migration to our country, and more than once. This time we decided to tell about how much different countries The world lives people who consider the Russian native language, and find the largest "islands" in the global archipelago of our compatriots.

The Russian diaspora in the world today is about 30 million people and in its number it ranks second after Chinese. Moreover, if for China, the reason for such a mass emigration is in the country's overpopulation, then about Russia, with its huge semi-empty spaces, you can't say that. Russians left not in search of free lands, but in search of best Life. Going where the eyes look and often as far as possible from their native shores. The best indicator of this is the dry figures of the last World Congress of compatriots, which took place at the end of 2009. The delegations from 88 (!) Countries participated in it.

Many, however, became members of the diaspora, without moving anywhere. First, together with the inhabitants, America was transferred to Alaska, and then Russians in the blink of an eye turned out abroad under the division of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.

Currently, the Russian language is native for 26.4 million residents of the Republics of the CIS and the Baltic States, that is former USSR, and almost 7.4 million residents of foreign countries. Due to this, in the degree of prevalence, Russian is still occupied by the fourth place in the world, yielding only English, Chinese and Spanish.

In the XIX century, Russia left the Old Believers in a massive manner, fleeing from religious repressions. We left not only to Europe, but also for the ocean, and in China. Even in Latin America - Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, etc. - Then the large Russian colonies were formed. Many Russian emigrants settled in the United States and Canada.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the next wave of emigration was caused by devastation due to royal repression, and then wars - the first world and civilian. Then the country left, according to various sources, from 2 to 5 million people. Last year, in the state of Rio Grandi do Sul in the south of Brazil, where there are especially many of our compatriots, the law was even adopted, according to which October 9 will be celebrated as a holiday - the day of Russian immigration. In the city of Campina Das Missoys, the monument was opened - established at the entrance to the city of the Orthodox cross, at the foot of which are the sculpture of John the Theologian and the family of Russian peasants. Mother and daughter hold in the hands of the spikelets of wheat and the inflorescence of sunflowers, and the father with a hoe on his shoulder looks out of the palm of the horizon.

The events of 1939-1945 were kicked out of the country about 6 million people. After the collapse of the USSR followed new wave - People saved from criminal terror and galloping inflation. Then about 4 million people emigrated from the post-Soviet Russia. Germany became the most popular destination, the second place was held by Israel, the third - the United States, the fourth-fifth - Canada and Finland. Almost 97% of emigrants left for one of these five countries.

Then the flow of emigration seems to be diet, but in last years I began to grow sharply. Over the past five years, Russia left about half a million people. And the fifth part of leaving - young people aged from 20 to 24. This is another - quiet, unwashed emigration. Most of them de Jura retain the citizenship of the Russian Federation, although de facto constantly live, taxes work and pay taxes at the new place of residence. Having worked for two years under contract and work visa, many then receive a residence permit.

About 40% in recent years are leaving in search new work and implementation. Among them, most are highly qualified specialists in different technical spheres, lawyers, scientists, entrepreneurs. According to the director of the Institute for the Problems of the Globalization of Mikhail Deljagin, "First of all, the most active citizens are going from Russia, who are tired of the powerful decision of economic problems, and this leads to the degradation of the remaining." Another 22% of emigrants are asked asylum as refugees. Russians in this status have already accepted in 37 countries of the world. Two thirds of Russian refugees live in Poland, Austria, France and Belgium, the sixth part - in Norway, Sweden and Germany. At the same time, for example, in Norway, refugees from Russia are included in the low-pass three leaders along with Iraq and Somalia, and by the growth of their numbers are comparable only with Afghanistan.

The third largest group of Russian emigrants (20%) is those who left to learn, and then stayed to live and work in the country where he was educated. Thus, from Russia to the UK on educational visas, over 30 thousand people are leaving annually, more than 5 thousand students go to Germany, France, Canada and Australia. Statistics show that approximately 30% of them are not returned.

Compared with the 90s, a list of priorities for modern migrants has changed a bit. In the top ten of the current channels of emigration include USA, Germany, Canada, Greece, Spain, Italy, Norway, France, United Kingdom, Sweden. As can be seen, dried flow to Israel, but the large Russian diasporas appeared in Southern Europe, Scandinavia and on Misty Albion.

In recent years, the emigration of Russians from the Far East has become a serious phenomenon and from Siberia to China and to a lesser extent to South Korea. In general, according to a survey conducted by the radio station "Echo of Moscow", 72% of listeners want to go on permanent place Residence to another country. Of course, this is not a full-fledged sourceland, but it is about the active, thinking part of society ...

However, in all the origin, you can see and good side. The Great German Philosopher Martin Heidegger noticed that "the language is a house of being," that is, the foundation on which the life and personality, and family, and the state holds.

A special phenomenon is Russian in the CIS countries. Thanks to it, millions of cultural, economic and simply household ties between the republics of the former USSR are supported. Thanks to him, we actually live in one Megassan. Russian people in the CIS countries, like Moldavian, Kazakh, Azerbaijan, Uzbek, Georgian, Tajik, Armenian in Russia, feels at all such a "foreigner", as, for example, an American or Frenchman.

How many Russians live in Russia and on earth?

I will give an analysis (not mine, but also not bad!) With an understated estimate of the number of Russians in the world

There is only taken ethnic composition - Pure Russians

and speech about Russian-paternal will go another time (their more than 220.000,000 in the world)

About 127,000,000 ethnic Russians live on Earth.

About 86% of Russian lives in Russia.

The remaining 14% of Russians - in different countries of the world.

Most Russians outside Russia - in Ukraine and in Kazakhstan.

Russians outside the Fatherland lately It is quickly reduced, as well as the number of Russians in Russia.

Although it will be more honest here is the picture of the Russian family - with one (maximum two) children ...

According to estimates from different researchers in the middle of the XVI century, in the Russian state lived - from 6.5 to 14.5 million people, at the end of the 16th century - from 7 to 15 million, and in the XVII century - up to 10.5-12 million. human.

The exact data on the number of Russians for those periods is certainly absent.

FROM mid XVIII century to the 80s of the XIX century, European Steppes (Novorossnya, the Lower Volga region, South Ucharal), partially before the beginning of the 20th century - the Taiga Places of the Northern Surgeons, some areas of the North Caucasus; The steppe in southern Siberia continued to be mastered, and with the second halves XIX. century - middle Asia and the Far East.

Part of the Russians in the XVIII century remained in the West, where the territory of the Russian state expanded, fully absorbed by the fragments of the Commonwealth, Poland, Malorosia and Belarus.

From the end of the XVIII and century, the first half of the XIX century, these lands were part of the Russian Empire, along with Finland, Bessarabia, and part of the mouth of the Danube.

There are also among of various nations lived Russians.

But their number was insignificant.

TO eND XIX. - The beginning of the 20th century, the main territory of the Russian settlement was the Central-Industrial, Central-Agricultural Areas and the European North, where Russians were among those who reside about 90%.

In separate regions European Russia The Russian number was: in the Ural region - up to 70% of the total population, in the Volga region - 63%, in the North Caucasus - more than 40%. In Siberia, by this time, the Russians have already made three quarters of the population (77.6%).

Only in the Far East and in Kazakhstan, the number of Russians did not exceed the number of other peoples, and they inferior to the Ukrainians from the nagging peoples.

Everywhere in European Russia, except for the southern outskirts, the main reason for increasing the population was a natural increase.

The natural increase in the fortress peasants was significantly lower than other categories of the population.

The fortresses were about half of the population (but the very concept of serfs were very blurred - in Siberia and they were not at all. From the word completely!). Exception - Stroganov "Urgents".

The most significant increase in the population from the European province was in Novorossia (Ekaterinoslavskaya, Kherson, Tavrichesky province, the area of \u200b\u200bthe Troops of the Donsky and the troops of Chernomorsky). In terms of population growth, Novorossia was inferior only to the South-Eastern and Siberian provinces.

A rather stable growth rate of the growth of the Russian population was celebrated at that time and on the Middle Volga region, which included the Kazan and Simbirsk province. His intensive settlement had to be in the XVIII century. The conditions for agriculture here were more favorable than in the center of Russia. Along with the Chernozem Center, the region was the main supplier of commodity bread. Together with the Russians, Finno-Ugric and turkic peoples (Tatars, Udmurts, Bashkira, Chuvashi, Mordva, Marine), Germans (in the Saratov province) and the descendants of the "assignment serve ingenians" - rated XVII century.

Elevated population growth rates in the first half of the XIX century. Siberia was distinguished late XVIII - early XIX. in. The solid Russian settlement was observed in its western regions with centers in Verkhoturia, Tyumen, Tobolsk and in the Irkutsk province. In the north of Western and Eastern Siberia, there were only certain foci of the Russian settlement. At the beginning of the XIX century. (1811) The population of Siberia (Tobolskaya, Tomsk, Irkutsk province) consisted of 682597 male shower, among them the Russians were 68.93%

By the way, the second is ethnic group after eastern Slavs In the Russian Empire were the Slavs Western - Poles. Hence the reason for the growth of pancakers. In general, in Russia, according to the census of 1897, the Russian language was called native 47% of its inhabitants, Ukrainian - 19%, Belarusian - 5%, other languages \u200b\u200bare less than 5%. Together with Ukrainians and Belarusians, Russians amounted to 71% of the population of Russia.

According to its estate composition, it looked like this: the peasants of all discharges (the Cossacks including) - 80%, urban estates - 15%, other - 5%.

Soviet period.

Growth rates of the number of Russian people in soviet period Slightly decreased, but continued to be high. Russian people during soviet power Despite wars and repression rose by more than two-thirds: from 86,000,000 people. In 1914 to 145 000 000 in 1989.

And as a result of the so-called. Liberal-democratic reforms of the 90s.

In millions, losses are calculated from liberal-democratic reforms of the 90s. Back in 2007, Rosstat's data on natural loss of the population of Russia for the period from 1992 were published. Then it was stated that the population was reduced primarily by Russian.

During this period, a decline of 12,400,000 people was indicated.

And according to U. S. Census Bureau, International Data Base for the period 1992 - 2008. Natural settlement of the population of Russia amounted to 13,300,000 people.

This is more than, for example, the population of Belgium, Hungary, Greece, Sweden or Switzerland. True, the relocation to Russia 5,700,000 compatriots from the countries of the near abroad partially compensated for this decline in the population. But the situation is catastrophic.

According to the results of the 2002 census in historically Russian regions of the Russian Federation Central, North-West and Volga federal districts 21 areas were recorded in which the Russian share was more than 90% of the population: Vologda (96.6%), Tambov (96.5%), Bryansk (96.3%), Lipetsk and Kursk (95.8%), Orlovskaya (95.3%), Tula (95.2%), Yaroslavl (95.1%), Nizhny Novgorod (95%), Vladimir (94.75%), Ryazanskaya (94.5%), Pskov (94, 3%), Arkhangelsk (94.2%), Voronezh (94.1%), Novgorod (93.9%), Ivanovo (93.7%), Kaluga (93.5%), my family Smolenskaya (93, 4%), Belgorod (92.9%), Tverskaya (92.5%), Moscow (91%), in the Leningrad Region, the Russian share was 89.6% of the population.

I still leave without a commentary factor of multi-million external migration, the main part of which the chronicles of Rosstat persistently show do not show.

Rosstat reports in their birth rates, mortality, natural growth / natural loss (extinction) in each region of the Russian Federation. All listed, historically Russian regions die out! To calculate the landmark, the figures of the extinction of the Russian people, the author applies the obvious method: among these regions, three with maximum and three are taken with minimal indicators of natural loss-extinction (exceeding mortality over
birth rate per 1000 population) is calculated by the average extinction rate, which is multiplied by the current number of Russian people. The result and result is a guide figures of extinction of the Russian people for a specific year.

According to the census on January 12, 1989, the number of Russian people in the RSFSR was 119.9 million. In 1989-1990 and in the first half of 1991, the rapidly fading natural increase in the Russian people increased its number in the RSFSR to 120.5 million in mid-1991 Russian mortality exceeded the Russian fertility, and the Russian people began to die out. According to the 2002 census, Russians in the Russian Federation turned out to be 115.9 million, and according to the 2010 census - 111 million.

Migration growth for 1989-2010 Rosstat showed 7 million. Suppose that this is a guideline of the number of migration growth of the Russian people during this period. Still, the Russians in these years were mostly entrusted to Russia than leaving. Based on these numbers, we approximately determine the current number of Russian people for a specific year. Consider calculations for several years.

1995. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year were shown: the Pskov region (minus 13.1 per 1000 population), Tverskaya (minus 12.3) and Tula (minus 12.1); Minimum: Belgorod (minus 5.4), Bryanskaya (minus 6.7) and Orlovskaya (minus 7.4). The average extinction rate for regions, the belarus share is more than 90% of the population, it turned out to be in 1995 - minus 9.5 per 1000 population. By the way, this 1995 indicator for the whole of the Russian Federation was minus 5.7 per 1000.

Suppose the number of Russian people in 1995 was 119 million from here the landmark of the extinction of the Russian people in that year it turns out to be 1,130,000. The overall rate of extinction in the Russian Federation was minus 840 thousand. It turns out that all other people of Russia, and above all have The most historically indigenous Muslims and all the fools from external migration were noted, a natural increase (exceeding fertility over mortality) was noted, which was approximately plus 290 thousand in 1995.

year 2000. Maximum extinction coefficients this year showed: Pskov region (minus 14.9 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 14,1); Minimum: Vologda (minus 7.2), Belgorod (minus 7.5) and Lipetsk (minus 8.7). The average extinction rate for regions, the belarusian share is more than 90% of the population, it turned out to be in 2000 - minus 11.1 per 1000 population. By the way, this figure of 2000 for the entire Russian Federation was minus 6.6 per 1000.

Suppose that the number of Russian people in 2000 was 117 million from here the landmark of the extinction of the Russian people in that year it turns out to be 1,300,000. The overall rate of extinction in the Russian Federation was minus 958.5 thousand. It turns out that all other people of Russia, and before In total, the most historically indigenous Muslims and all the fatal peoples from external migration are noted, the natural increase, which in 2000 was about plus 340 thousand in 2000.

2005 year. The maximum extinction coefficients this year was shown: the Pskov region (minus 15.7 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 13.7); Minimum: Belgorod (minus 7,1), Vologda (minus 8.3) and Lipetsk (minus 8,6). The average extinction rate for regions, the belarus share is more than 90% of the population, it turned out to be in 2005 minus 11.25 per 1000 population. By the way, this figure of 2005 for the whole of the Russian Federation was minus 5.9 per 1000.

Suppose that the number of Russian people in 2005 was 114 million from here the landmark of the extinction of the Russian people in that year it turns out to be 1,285,000. The overall extract in the Russian Federation was minus 846.5 thousand. It turns out that all other people of Russia, and before In total, the most historically indigenous Muslims and all the nagging peoples from external migration, a natural increase was noted, which in 2005 approximately plus 440 thousand.

2010. Maximum extinction coefficients this year showed: Pskov region (minus 10.5 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 9.3) and Tverskaya (minus 9.0); Minimum: Belgorod (minus 3.8), Vologda (minus 3.85) and Lipetsk (minus 5.3). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population, turned out to be in 2010 minus 7.0 per 1000 population. Please note that this 2010 indicator for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to just 1.7 per 1000 minus.

The 2010 census showed that the number of Russian people in 2010 was 111 million from here the landmark of the extinction of the Russian people in that year it turns out to be minus 770,000. The overall rate of extinction in the Russian Federation was minus 240 thousand. It turns out that all other people of Russia, and First of all, the most historically indigenous Muslims and all the nagging peoples from external migration, a natural increase was noted, which in 2010 was about plus 530 thousand. Pay special attention to how this indicator steadily grows!

As a result, all the calculations it turns out that for 1992-2011 in Russia extinct, approximately 22.5 million Russians! Not died - this is not a mortality rate - and not died, namely extinct! And not the average "expensive Russians", which no science knows, namely Russians!

At the same time, I want to hope that in Russia, in Russia, the demography of the Russian people is still better than its average in historically Russian regions, in which the Russian share is more than 90% of the population. But in this case, there is every reason to argue that the digit of the extinction of the Russian people for 1992-2011 the mark of 20 million has already passed! That is, the Russian mortality for 1992-2011 exceeded the Russian fertility at least (!) By 20 million! Multimum, because it is calculated from the official reports of Rosstat if they inform us the truth.

Just wondering: why V.V. Putin about the national question came to talk to the North Caucasian FD, where with demographics more than in order, and not in Pskov, Tver or Tula regionwhere the Russian people die out 1-1.5% per year?! I repeat: not dying, but - dying out!

We summarize. In the years 1992-2011, in the current Russia, the overall indicator of natural loss-extinction (exceeding birth mortality) amounted to Rosstat, minus 13.5 million. At the same time, the Russian people are extinct not less than minus 20 million. Consequently, all other peoples Russia, the Muslims are historically indigenous for Russia (give them God!) And all the nagged peoples from external migration, a natural increase is noted at least plus 6.5 million.

I will immediately indicate that, on the basis of my calculations, the Russians at the time of the 2010 census were unlikely to be hardly more than 100 million! However, the 2010 census showed that the number of Russian people is 111 million. So it turned out if there were not two "saving" process!

The first "saving" process was the mass return of Russians in the Russian Federation from the former Union republics. Rosstat showed that the migration increase in 1989-2010 amounted to 7 million. Since the actual border control data on the total entry into Russia and the total leaving of it is still closed, assume that the migration growth of the Russian people is not more than 7 million.

The second "saving" process was the change in the noticeable part of the respondents in the census 2002 and 2010 to determine their own nationality. So, the Ukrainians in the 1989 census in the RSFSR recorded 4.3 million; According to the 2002 census already in the Russian Federation - 2.9 million, and according to the 2010 census - 1.9 million! 2.4 million less than in 1989! And this is despite the fact that the Russian Federation with Ukraine has a positive migration balance.

Belarusians in 1989 were recorded 1.2 million, in 2002 - 808 thousand, and in 2010 - 521.5 thousand, 680 thousand less than in 1989!

Chuvash in 1989 was recorded 1774 thousand, in 2002 - 1637 thousand, and in 2010 - 1436 thousand, 340 thousand less than in 1989
year!

Udmurts in 1989 were recorded 715 thousand, in 2002 - 637 thousand, and in 2010 - 553 thousand, by 160 thousand less than in 1989! Etc. Plus, the prosperous migrants, some of which were also called with Russian census.

In my opinion, such a process can be estimated by a number - up to 5 million. That is, the Russian people "arrived" by 5 million as a result of this process, and all other peoples are "loss". Everyone can make sure that if these are not these two "saving" process, Russians in the Russian Federation would have today not more than 100 million.

External migration

Ten years ago, for six months before the census-2002, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation V.P. Ivanov published in AIF (№15. 2002) an interview with an incredible level of substantive frankness. It can be stated that this interview this six months before the Census-2002, indicatively refuted (!) The results of not only this, the nearest at that time, the census, but also the results and the next - 2010 census! V. Ivanov warned that this "estimated law enforcement data, which, by the way, was never published before."

Through the posts of border control only from the CIS countries to Russia in the past (2001), 14.5 million people arrived, and left 11.5 million rubles from the country - 3 million. A similar picture was in 1999 and 2000.

Compare. V. Ivanov said that only for these three years (1999-2001) and only from the CIS countries, the migration increase was plus 9 million! However, the official reports of Rossatat on the migration exchange of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries for 1999-2001 still report something completely different.

1999: Profit - 362 708, left - 127 807, "Balance" - 234 901.
2000: Profit - 346 774, left - 83 312, "residue" - 263 462.
2001: Profit - 183,650, left - 61,570, "residue" - 122 080.

From here, according to Rosstat, the migration increase from the CIS countries for 1999-2001 was the total plus 620 443. Please note: the version of Rosstat is dispersed with numbers from the interview V.P. Ivanova 15 times!

If we take an indicator of 3 million (from V. Ivanov) for a stable maximum, then for 1992-2001, the positive balance of the migration exchange of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries will be plus 30 million. If, during the remaining years of this period, a positive migration balance is to suggest a minimum of 1 million This was a plus of 16 million. Thus, it can be assumed that the average migration target landmark for 1992-2001 only from the CNC station stations plus 23 million.

According to law enforcement agencies, about 600,000 citizens of Azerbaijan live in Moscow, of which only 60,000 were officially registered, and only 13 people got up for tax accounting. After half a year, the census-2002 counted, but not in Moscow, but in general, in the Russian Federation, 621,840 Azerbaijanis, and the 2010 census and is less than 603 070.

CNR citizens in the capital more than 100,000, and only 216 people are on tax accounting. Censulation-2002 found only 34,577 Chinese within the Russian Federation; And census-2010 - 28 943.

The question is inevitable: how many citizens of the PRC are located today within Russia? Something is known to this. Oleg Slobodchikov, Candidate political Sciences, the demographer reports the following: "There are different assessments of the number of visitors of the Chinese on russian territory: from 2-2.5 million to 5-10 million "(" AIF "№46. 2005). These were estimated for another 2005. A year later, he was supplemented by Dr. Economic Sciences of Krasnikov, without specifying, however, the source: "2 million Chinese annually settle in Russia" (28.06.2006. "Our version". TVC).

But nothing like Rosstat does not lock up hard. Meanwhile, the number of CNR citizens within the Russian Federation can already be estimated at 10 million; And it turns out that the factors are no longer the second in numbers of Russia, but only the third! The second is the Chinese! It is even interesting how to react to the ardent Tatar public (and not only Tatar), when it is aware of what is happening.

According to the 2002 census, only 6.5 million Russian citizens lived in the Far Eastern Federal District, and according to the 2010 census - 6.3 million. In addition to Chinese, which in the country, already, are already 10 million, as we have Vietnamese and Koreans ? Legally the question: we give up, pass the Far East? And how many migrants in the Russian Federation from the Arab world and from Africa?

And from the interview V.P. Ivanova: "The total number of foreigners in Russia today exceeds 10 million about half of them compile illegal immigrants. If legislative measures are not taken, the number of illegal immigrants by 2010 can grow to 19 million. " Capture-2002 took into account 239 thousand people, temporarily (less than 1 year, according to Rosstat) were in the territory of the Russian Federation; And the 2010 Captition recorded 489 thousand.

On February 21, 2011, I received the sixth letter from the FMS of 08.02.2011 NMS-3/2383 on No Snov-4/4 of 01/25/2011, which signed the head of the organizational and analytical department Ms. E.A. Radochin. The most incredible is in the "Appendix" to the sixth letter of the FMS - this is the data of border control for 2005-2010! I draw attention to the fact that neither on the site of the FSB (www.fsb.ru), nor the website of the FMS (www.fms.gov.ru), nor the website of Rosstat www.gks.ru this information is not available!

March 1, 2011 I received the sixth letter from Rosstat from 02/18/2011 №8-0-20 / 146 at SNI-4/5 of 01/25/2011, which, as always, signed the head of the management of the statistics and health statistics Ms. I.A. Zbars. I will quote his fundamentally important fragment: "The temporary criterion for attributing the population to the constant is 12 months" ("Recommendations of the Conference of European Statistics on Copy of the Population and housing Fund 2010, United Nations Economic Commission, New York, Geneva, 2006).

Citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens and states of civility registered in the territorial bodies of the FMS at the place of residence are subject to statistical observation, registered in the territory of the FMS and more (who arrived), as well as those who have taken part in the place of residence in connection with Residence outside the Russian Federation (dropped out). Rosstat's position on accounting for long-term migration set forth in previous responses (letters dated 11.21.2004 No. 8-0-20 / 694; of 10.11.2006 No. 8-0-20 / 601; from 13.11. 2009 No. 8-0-20 / 916), has not changed. "

I will add that the letters from Rosstat are not mentioned from 30.03.2007 No. 8-0-20 / 164 and from 28.05.2010 No. 8-0-20 / 507. In total letters there were five, it is sixth.

We will fix the "Rosstat's position": if the migrant "registered in the territorial bodies of the FMS at the place of residence," but he lived on a nonemumen 1 year, or did not register at all, then it is not subject to statistical observation "! That is him in Russia as if not?! Nice how!

And still pay attention: I ask about border control data, and Rosstat provides data on registered (!) Long-term migration. I ask about one, and Rosstat responds at all about the other! But after the sixth letter of the FMS, such a reception of Rosstat looks just stupid. Now we will study the parameters of unregistered (!) Long-term migration for 2005-2010.

There is a danger to overload the reader's attention by secondary figures from the "Appendix" to the sixth letter of the FMS. Therefore, I quote principles. At the same time, immediately show, and what reports the same official website of Rosstat www.gks.ru.

"2005 year. The total number of filled bulbs of migration cards received from the border borders of the FSB of Russia, 25,506,720; Including inbound units - 14 226 286, exit parts - 11,280,434. " From these data, the FSB follows that the migration increase (excess of entry into Russia over the departure from it) in 2005 amounted to 2,945,852 (14,226,286 minus 11,280,434). And Rosstat reported to us that only 107,432 (drove - 177,230, left - 69,798). Hence the hidden (not reflected by the Rosstat reports) part of the migration growth was 2 838,418 (2 945 852 minus 107 432). As they say in Odessa, feel two big differences!

"2006. The total number of filled bulbs of migration cards received from the border border bodies of the FSB of Russia, 27 848 010; Including inbound units - 15 184 268, exit parts - 12,663,842. " According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2006 - 2,520,426, and in Rosstat - 132 319 (drove - 186,380, left - 54,062). Hidden part of migration growth - 2 388 107.

"2007. The total number of filled bulbs of migration cards received from the border bodies of the FSB of Russia, 30 710 199; Including inbound units - 16 416 852, exit parts - 14 293 347. " According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2007 - 2,123,505, and in Rosstat - 239 943 (drove - 286,056, left - 47,013). Hidden part of migration growth - 1 883 562.

"2008. The total number of filled bulbs of migration cards received from the border border bodies of the FSB of Russia, 33,684,200; Including: inbound units - 18 011 718, exit parts - 15 672 482 ". According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2008 - 2,339,236, and in Rosstat - 242 106 (drove - 281,614, left - 39 508). Hidden part of migration growth - 2 097 130.

"year 2009. The total number of filled migration card forms received from the border border bodies of the FSB of Russia, 36,241,127; Including inbound parts - 18,762,080, exit parts - 17 479 137. " According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2009 - 1,282,943, and in Rosstat - 247 449 (drove - 279 907, left - 32 458). Hidden part of migration growth - 1 035 494.

"2010. The total number of filled bulbs of migration cards received from the border border bodies of the FSB of Russia, 39 501 010; Including inbound units - 20,588,911, exit parts - 18 912 099. " According to the FSB, the migration increase in 2010 - 1 676 812, and in Rosstatu - 158 079 (drove - 191,656, left - 33,577). Hidden part of migration growth - 1,518,733.

We summarize. PS FSB of Russia recorded that the actual (!) Migration increase in 2005-2010 - 12 888 774. And in Rosstat, a long-term migration increase, registered (!) Territorial FMS bodies, - 1 127 328. Thus, unregistered, and therefore hidden , part of the migration increase in 2005-2010 (not reflected by the chronicles of Rosstat) amounted to 11,761,446. caught "subtlety"?!

In 2005-2010, Rosstat with his chronicles "legalized" less than 10% of the real migration growth of this period!

Compare. According to Rosstat, the migration increase in 1989-2010 amounted to 7 million, and the PS FSB of Russia recorded that only 2005-2010 the actual migration increase was 12,888,774. In my opinion, Interview V.P. Ivanova in "AIF" (№15. 2002) and "Annex" to the sixth letter of the FMS unconditionally refute (!) Results of Cupisks 2002 and 2010 from Rosstat!

Finally, to illustrate what is happening, consider the absurd situation. Imagine that for 2005-2010 Ms. I.A. Zbarskaya (head of the management of statistics and health care Rosstat) in its own apartment or in its own cottage recorded a migration increase in 13 external migrants! Naturally, she turns into all the instances and asks to bring order. And in response hears that at its address "registered in territorial body FMS and lives more than 1 year »Total 1 (one) Migrant! The remaining "statistical observation is not subject to"!

Missed Chapter "Strategy-2020"

So far beyond discussion demographic situation in the Russian Federation, and now national QuestionThere are two key indicators. For 1992-2011, the extinction of the Russian people (from Rosstat's reports) was at least minus 20 million and the migration increase, as we saw above, is in reality on average, no less than plus 2 million per year, and for 23 years (1989 -2011) guaranteed exceeded 40 million and since the migration increase in Rosstatu for 1989-2010 amounted to only 7 million (5.5 million in 1989 and 1.5 million for 2003-2010), then The hidden part is at least today than plus 35 million!

Due to this default, the specified discussions simply cannot go to the level of these two processes in one! Meanwhile, the presentation of these two processes in continuously produces a strong impression, especially if you enter into calculations hidden part of the migration increase! Since the author does not have full border control data for 1992-2011, further calculates at the level of the order of numbers.

Each year of the 1992-2011 period, Russia in the minus is 1 million dying Russians (if proceeding from these Rosstat) and in the plus to 2 million migration growth (if proceeding from an interview with the highest officials of the Russian Federation and border control data for 2005-2010). The migration growth of the Russian people approximately balanced by the natural growth of all other peoples of the Russian Federation, both historically indigenous for Russia and the sucked from external migration.

It follows that each year of the period 1992-2011 excess of the number of Russian people over the number of all other nations of the Russian Federation has been reduced by 3 million! That is, this excess should have been reduced over the years for 60 million. It should have reminded that when Corresponding to 2002 and 2010, 5 million respondents revised their national affiliation and called Russian. Russians on these 5 million "arrived," and all other peoples are "loss".

And therefore, the excess of the number of Russian people over the number of all other peoples of the Russian Federation has declined for twenty years (1992-2011) not by 60 million, but "only" by 50 million! Total!

According to the census on January 12, 1989, the number of Russian people in the RSFSR was 119.9 million, and the number of all other peoples - 27.1 million. That is, the Russian people exceeded the rest of the Nations of the RSFSR by 92.8 million.

I repeat once again: as soon as the calculations are introduced in charge of the hidden part of the migration growth for 1989-2010 - not less than 35 million, statistics on demography in the Russian Federation immediately undergoes a dramatic revision!

Currently, the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation is not at all 143 million, as Rosstat assures, and approximately 180 million: Russians - 110 million (60%), all other peoples - 70 million (40%). Exceeding the number of Russian people over the number of all other nations today is not more than 40 million! By the way, there is a reason to relate 180 million permanent population of the Russian Federation and the mortality rate of 2 million per year has been revealed to Rosstat in recent years.

And finally, the main thing: what's next? What predictions are calculated on the basis of the already known dynamics of extinction of the Russian people and replacing it with external migration? Nothing comfortable: the unified process of extinction of the Russian people and replacing it with external migration goes to the next stage.

Here you should remind something. In 1987, the RSFSR was born
2-2.1 million Russian children (with a total fertility of 2.5 million). And in 1993, only 1 million (with a total fertility less than 1.4 million) was born in the Russian Federation. And after 1993, 1 million (plus-minus 100,000) of Russian children per year is born in the Russian Federation.

In 2011, the first "Novorosssian" Russian generation of 1993 began to give birth to her children. If the ratio of "two to one" in the neighboring generations of the Russian people will continue (and other prerequisites have not yet), then in 2015-2020, the second Novorossyanskaya Russian generation will be used, which will be in its number only 500,000 (plus-minus 100 000 ) in year.

And in the current decade (2010-2020) there will be a sign transition-shift: the Russian people of children will begin to be born less than all other nations of Russia! Let me remind you that more recently, in 1987, the Russian people have four times more born more than all other nations.

Since 1994, Russian mortality regularly reaches
marks 2 million per year; Total mortality in Rosstat, up to 2.37 million in 2003. However, given that in the 50s of the 20th century, more than 2.5 million children were born to the RSFSR, given the current life expectancy, and especially considering the migration growth, there is every reason to expect that in 2015-2020 total mortality in Russia will reach 3 million per year. Russian mortality will be released at 2.5 million per year.

Since 1993, the Russian people die out of 1 million per year. But, as we see, there are good reason to expect that in 2015-2020 the extinction of the Russian people will reach 2 million per year!

Suppose that the migration increase will continue at the level of 2 million per year. At the same time, the migration growth of the Russian people will continue to decline and can move into a migration loss. Obviously, the natural increase of all the other peoples of Russia, indigenous and surpasses will continue their height. Consequently, there is every reason to expect that the excess of the number of Russian people over the number of all other nations of the Russian Federation during this period (2015-2020) will begin to reduce 4 million per year!

At the same time, it can be assumed that with the relief of the visa regime with the European Union, the United States and other countries from the Russian Federation will begin a massive departure, and above all Russian youth - cultural, educated, law-abiding, with the European FairyControl! Today, sociological surveys show that over the past twenty years (1992-2011), the proportion of those who would like to leave from the Russian Federation increased from 5% to 21%; And this is at least 30 million people!

We summarize. Until 2020, the Russian people will sweep at least 10 million yet than a minus; All other nations of Russia will increase their number of natural growth for another plus 7-8 million; The migration increase in the external migrants of external migrants will be more plus 20 million, minus quite a possible departure from Russia of several million Russians. Nothing forgotten?

These calculations show that by 2020 the current excess of the number of Russian people over the number of all other people of the Russian Federation in 40 million will evaporate! And in the region of 2020, the share of the Russian people in the total population of the Russian Federation will fall below 50%. In my presentation, this is an objective condition for the beginning of the last decay of Russia in the Yugoslav scenario. With our, of course, the specifics, but it will not seem to see any anyone.

This does not mean that Russia's decay will begin exactly in 2020 or once later. Disintegration may begin until 2020! We all see that the course of history is dizzyfully diminishing and that weak states are crushed and sweeping mercilessly! I hope no one will argue that over the past twenty years (1992-2011), Russia has become stronger than 20 million extinct Russians?! Or that the hidden migration increase in 35 million incorporated external migrants "raised Russia from the knees"?!

Its first election article by V.V. Putin called "Russia focuses". But the achieved dynamics of extinction of the Russian people and replacing it with external migration shows directly the opposite: Russia is rapidly dispersed! Really for 12 years of his stay at the highest posts of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin did not understand this?!

And Moscow and St. Petersburg clever, those that first composed "Concept 2020", then "Strategy-2020", in which the stages " further development"" New Democratic Great Russia "until 2020, those that after the release of the next election article by V.V. Putin for hours tweed in television, - they also did not understand this?! What to say to this: the poor fellow perceived the ideas of "market democracy" and "rooted globalism" on the most now!

And think about what: after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the current Russia was released only thirty years for the fact that Russians in it have become less than half of its population. And twenty years from these thirty have already passed!

Andrei Pshenitsyn
izhevsk

The status of one of the world (global) languages \u200b\u200bhas been deserved for a long time. Now on the planet they own about 300 million people, which automatically puts Russian to the honorable fifth place according to the degree of prevalence. MORE HALP (160 million) respondents consider this language to be native. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian was official language Communication of all nationalities. Now he is a worker in the CIS and one of the official officials - to the UN.

The number and territorial prevalence of Russian-speaking

Before the revolution in Russia owned Russians 150 million citizens. By 2000, their number rose to 350 million. The number of Russian speakers who consider this language with their own, approximately 280 million. Just over 70 million citizens were not bad for them and enjoyed in everyday life. For 114 million Russian was the second language. Basically, these were the inhabitants of the Union republics.

Now there are many Russian-speaking in Ukraine, Georgia and other countries that are once in the Union. Native speakers live in Germany, in the Balkans, in Asia, in Israel. A huge Russian diaspora exists in the USA and Canada. Now the Russian stands on 2 place after English for prevalence in the global Internet.

Unfortunately, the growth trends of the number of Russian-speaking users do not instill large hopes. Separate from the USSR states are trying to revive their national cultures. By 2005, the number of Russian-speaking citizens living in the former territory of the Soviet Union decreased from 350 to 278 million in 2006, it was recognized only 140 million people. Basically, these are citizens of the Russian Federation.