How the bookmaker works on matches. Secrets of bookmakers

What is the bookmaker office (BK)? The bookmaker is a bet on betting (enclosing people) to various events, most often, sports and other media lighting activities.

Usually, offering to make a bet, BC provides a player to choose the desired option from the entire possible list of outcomes. For example, in the Russian-England football match, the player can add to the choice of both the victory of Russia and England, or at all on a draw. For each outcome of the BC offers predefined bookmaker's payment ratio (rate ratio), the magnitude of which depends on the estimated capabilities of the specified result.

What does the bet be betrayed?

Rate coefficient ("KEF", "Cooph", "Kef") - This is the value of which the possible benefitment gain is calculated. They are several species:

• Decimal factor bet (adopted in Russia and the CIS countries).
  Example: 1.64. It means that the amount delivered in case of winning will be multiplied by 1.64 (if the rate was 100 rubles, then the payment will be 164 rubles, i.e. 64 rubles. Win).
  The bookmaker is likely to calculate the coefficient: (1 / 1.64) * 100% \u003d 60.98%.
• Fractional factor bet (Accepted in the UK).
  Example: 3/8. It means that as a pure winnings, we obtain 3/8 of the amount set (put 100 £, the net win 100 * 3/8 \u003d 37.5 £, and the entire payment will be $ 137.5).
  Bookmaker probability in this case is calculated by the formula: probability \u003d (denominator / (numerator + denominator)) * 100%. In our case, will be: (3/3 + 8) * 100% \u003d 27.27%.
• American factor bet (The most pushed, it is rare, used in the countries of North America).
  Examples: 110 or -140 (that is, it may have both positive and negative meaning). Consider on the example of the match "New York Rangers" - "Boston Bruins" (+150 for the victory of New York, -140 to Boston's victory). Positive means putting $ 100, in case of winning New York, we get $ 150 pure profits (payment will be $ 100 + $ 150 \u003d $ 250). Negative means that in order to get a $ 100 net profit in case of winning Boston, we must deliver $ 140.
  For positive coefficients, the bookmaker probability is calculated by the formula: the probability \u003d 100% * 100 / (cooph + 100). In our case: 100% * 100 / (150 + 100) \u003d 40%.
  For negative, probability is calculated as follows: the probability \u003d 100% * (- (coefficient)) / ((- (coefficient)) + 100), in our case, 100% * (- (- 140)) / ((- -140)) + 100) \u003d 58.33%.

Regardless of the view in which the coefficient is presented, it always performs the same function: it reflects how the gain will be at the bet in the bookmaker in proportion from its size.

Calculation of rates coefficients. Where does the bet depends on and from what depends?

The bet ratio is calculated by the bookmaker, based on the intended probability of different events. To calculate these probabilities, special analysts are involved using abundant statistical databases, opinions of various experts and specialized programs that take into account many input data.

Consider the situation on the example of the Russian-England football match. Analysts made the following predictions (a net bet ratio is calculated by the formula: 100% / probability):

The resulting table is called "Clean Line" ("Clean Chances"). And then the logic is turned on - so that the bookmaker can make a profit from rates, he needs to take part of the arrival itself. Therefore, the BC lowers the coefficients and the table takes approximately the following form:

And this line is called "Bookmaker Line". If we are now in the opposite way, consider the probability on the basis of the coefficient of the bookmaker office, then we get the probability of bets:

The amount of probabilities of rates becomes not 100%, but 108.41%. In this case, 8.41% is bookmkera margin - pronounced as a percentage of the likelihood. Rejection of the coefficients of the bookmaker made to retrieve profit from rates.

How to win at the bets in the bookmaker?

In the example above, we calculated the probability of the bet, but what is it? The probability of a bet is the border probability of the rates, taking into account the proposed coefficient that shares the "positive" and "minus" rate. For example, if in the considered match, the likelihood of victory of Russia over England:

• there will be at least 15%, then the bet on it will be a "positive" with an expected translate of 0.71% (15% - 14.29% \u003d 0.71%);
• it will be equal to the probability betting by analysts by analysts at 12%, then the rate will be a minus with a negative anticipated transcendence equal margin 2.29% (12% - 14.29% \u003d 2.29%).

We are talking to the expected advantage, because it is impossible to predict the exact result of the match and, having made a bet on the victory of Russia at $ 10, you either win $ 60 (with Kef 7), or lose $ 10. But, in the hypothetically large number of such matches, in 15% of which Russia will win, in total at the rates you will be in the plus.

In this note, we will not go into the details of the betting at the rates and will try to disassemble this question in more detail in a separate article. We only note the basic principle of earnings at the rates: the search for bets, the bookmaker probability (incorporated in the coefficient, taking into account the margin of the bookmaker) which is lower than the real probability of such an outcome.

Movement of the line of bookmakers

The incorrect assessment of the probabilities of the event outcomes by bookmakers is a very - very common phenomenon (there are many reasons for this, ranging from analyst errors and ending with a conscious shift of the coefficients by the bookmaker's office with regard to customer preferences). Therefore, the BC during the reception of the bets constantly "hold the hand on the pulse."

Re-turn to our example. A day after the publication of the line on the match "Russia - England", the bookmaker is analyzed and sees that the total amount of rates made at $ 100,000 distributed between possible outcomes as follows:

It turns out that, depending on the outcome, the bookmaker must draw the following payments and obtain such financial results:

The bookmaker is interested in excluding risks for himself and remain in the winning amount of all rates regardless of the outcome (this is possible due to the presence of margin in the coefficients). To correct the situation, the BC will take the coefficient to the victory of Russia, say, to 6.5, at the same time raising the coefficient to the victory of England to 2.2. Such a change in the line and is called the "Movement of the Line of Bookmakers" (sometimes also called the "Line Proof").

Taking into account the changing KeFs, the total distribution of bets made on the second day will shift towards England national team, for example:

The financial result in the amount of two days for the bookmaker in this case will be in plus at any outcome.

Now, of course, all bookmakers use special programs continuously tracking the distribution of amounts of rates between outcomes and promptly regulating the motion of the lines according to the principle presented above.

The presence of such powerful software in the BC allows the largest of them even more casually approach to the calculation of the initially exhibited coefficients. Thanks to the rapid response of the line to the "Progres", it quickly comes to its "equilibrium". And small losses from losing on bets concluded at favorable coefficients (players who know such coefficients to identify) are leveled against the background of huge amounts of prisoners after finding an "equilibrium" line of the line, in which the bookmaker remains in the plus at any outcome.

20.11.2017

The bookmaker office is a company that makes bets on the outcomes of certain events, most of them sports. The operation of the office is built on the calculation of the probability of the likelihood of a particular outcome, and not only on the basis of real probabilities, but taking into account the laid margin. In other words, the assessment occurs in such a way that the bookmaker has the opportunity to get the maximum profit at any end.

Example with coin

For a better understanding, we use a well-known example with a coin. As you know, throwing the coin only two probable outcome: eagle and rush. Suppose the bookmaker office decided to accept rates on this event.

Considering that the probability is absolutely the same, the coefficient and on the fallout of the Eagle, and the rush is equal to the loss and amounted to 2.0. Two players, one of which put 1000 rubles on the eagle, and the other - 1000 rubles per hatch, began to expect the result. Suppose that the eagle fell. In such a case, the bookmaker will have to pay 2000 rubles to the first player who made the right forecast. But is such a reality?

Certainly no. Because if so, then the bookmaker's office simply did not exist. In fact, the coefficient would hardly exceed 1.90. For the most part - even less. Therefore, the net profit of the bookmaker will minimally be 100 rubles. These are the very creams that take away bookmakers. And therefore, when choosing a bookmaker office, pay special attention to the criterion of "margin", since even the difference in 0.1 plays a huge role in distances.

Each self-respecting player must have a bill in several bookmakers, which will allow you to choose favorable rates for bets. To not spend time on analysis and comparison of the bookmaker's office, pay attention to our reliable bookmaker rating - anyone of their list is worthy of your attention.

Battle with bookmaker

At the very beginning of his acquaintance with bookmakers, it is necessary to understand that the search for a response to the question "How to beat the bookmaker's office?" Useless occupation. This is due to the fact that bookmaker at any outcome remains in the plus.

By and large, we are talking only about the tools that someone lost (the second player in an example with a coin). Therefore, you should only tune in what if the winning forecasts will be more than losing with the average coefficient 2, it will be enough to be in the plus.

In addition to the mood, it is important to choose a game and financial strategy for yourself, as well as carry out a number of recommendations:

1. Constantly improve your own knowledge.
2. Do not resort to large rates of the Wa-Bank.
3. Study analysts.
4. Determine overestimated coefficients.
5. Play only in reliable offices.

Proven and legal bookmakers:

As already noted above, analysts of bookmakers are directly involved in the formation and adjustment of the coefficients, perfectly understanding in certain intricacies of one or another state of sports, as well as knowing the basic laws of the mathematical model.

Properly laid coefficients are the key to the success of the office. Promotional attention, bookmakers pay for real-time coefficients, which are responsible for Live analytics. Interestingly, the automatic method of maintaining Live matches is mostly used today.

Bar stock exchanges

It should be noted that professional kappers make bets not in the bookmakers, but on rates exchanges. The most popular on these moment of exchange is Betfair. The essence of the game on the stock exchange is that kapper plays against each other, independently exposing the coefficients that sometimes are an order of magnitude higher than that of the bookmakers. However, do not forget about the Commission on winning rates, which, as a rule, is up to 5%.

Today, the Exchange has more than four million people, and performs more than seven million transactions per day. For beginners, an excellent service has been created, which describes in detail all the principles of operation. However, the beginning of the player will have to be not easy, as professional players will try to oust an inexperienced player.

The network you can find a lot of tips and strategies in which they tell, "how to win from the bookmaker." This, of course, is extremely interesting, but here the mistake lies - to win at the bookmaker, the player cannot in principle, simply because the bookmaker tries to prevent the situation when they play against him, because then he is losses. In fact, his task is to be a mediator between players, and not one of the parties bet. But precisely because of this, any person has a chance to earn a game in the bookmaker.

But let's figure it out in order, how the bookmaker works, what is his weak and strengths and what its weaknesses are.

How the coefficient is formed

Theoretically coefficient that offers a bookmaker on an event is a reflection of the probability. It is calculated according to the simplest formula - 1 it is divided into the likelihood presented in the form of 0 to 1. T. The probability of 80% is 0.8, 50% - 0.5, etc. Thus, for the probability of 50%, we must obtain the coefficient 1 / 0.5 \u003d 2. This is "honest chances."

For example, if we consider the meeting of the tennis player and with the chances of winning 70% and tennis player in with chances of 30%, we will get:

for a - 1 / 0.7 \u003d 1.43

for in - 1 / 0.3 \u003d 3.33

But the bookmaker will first take care of his earnings, because he adds his "margin", which can be from 5 to 15% (some laid and more, there is enough for how much conscience). This margin is distributed between the two players, and not necessarily equally. But for simplicity, suppose that the BC asked Margin (profit Margin. ) 10% and distributed it equally between the players. Then, by the probability of the victory of each of them, we must add 5%, accordingly, probability will become 75 and 35%, which will give in the amount of 110%. The coefficients will take this kind:

For a - 1 / 0.75 \u003d 1.33

For in - 1 / 0.35 \u003d 2.86

Due to the margin, the bookmaker receives a mathematical advantage over any player who will bring profit to it. Here we can say that the roulette in this regard is even "kinder" to the player, since there the mathematical advantage on each draw is only 2.77%. But the bookmaker has its subtleties that do not allow him to be so loyal to the player.

How it works

And this subtlety is that most people prefer to put on favorites, creating a certain overcast of the line. Let's continue consideration of the proposed match, in which the tennis player A is a clear favorite. And we assume that the bookmaker took on the match the rates a total of 10,000. At the same time, 8,000 was put on a favorite, and 2000 on an outsider.

If a tennis player and wins the match, then the bookmaker will have to pay 8000 * 1.33 \u003d 10 640, i.e. it will receive a loss of 640 units.

If the match will win the athlete in, the bookmaker pays: 2000 * 2.86 \u003d 5720, i.e. it will receive a profit of 4,280 units.

If you count, then at each such match, the bookmaker specifically loses 640 * 0.7 \u003d 448 units and will conditionally receive 5 710 * 0.3 \u003d 1,284 units. Those. Mathematically, each such match will bring 836 units to the bookmaker.

As you can see, due to the uneven distribution of bets, the bookmaker in some cases will lose money (although in the long-term period he still wins them). But he doesn't want to lose money, because we come to the most interesting - influence of the opinion of the players.

The influence of "the opinions of the crowd"

The bookmaker is much more interesting to make a profit from each match, let it be a little less. Therefore, in fact, all analytical departments of the BC are forced to predict not so much the chances of each tennis player (although this is also important, because it is a certain extent the basis of the coefficient), how much to determine the "opinion of the crowd" - where and how many people will be supplied. What the most interesting thing is, it is actually much easier.

We continue to consider an example with tennis players A and V. Bookmaker (by experience, statistics of previous draws, etc.) suggests that players will prefer to "ship" on the favorite of the match, and the share of an outsider will have to maximize 15 - 20% of rates. Since he doesn't want to "oscillations" at all, which we described above, the bookmaker will turn the situation in such a way as to always be in profits. For this, it will simply take off the coefficient on the favorite in accordance with the expected distribution of rates, and therefore on the tennis player and it will lay 80% + 5% margin, and on tennis player in - 20% + 5%.

As a result, we will see the coefficients in the line:

for a - 1 / 0.85 \u003d 1,18

for in - 1 / 0.25 \u003d 4

Now, with a similar distribution of rates in the victory of the player, 9,440 will be paid (and will receive 560 income units), and in the case of the player's victory in - 8,000 (profit 2000). On average, the bookmaker will earn less at each match, but in any case will make a profit.

It is this desire to make a profit in any case, the fact that the line is almost constantly "floats" - the bookmaker reduces the coefficient on the favorite in accordance with how players put money on it, thus balancing cash flows in accordance with their wishes.

How to earn

This bookmaker's strategy gives a chance to the player to make mathematically favorable bets. "Clean chances" looked initially as 1,43 and 3.33, and in the end we came to the coefficients of 1.18 and 4. Naturally, putting on the favorite it becomes not profitable (although his chances of winning and higher), each such rate will be To a loss. For example, with the amount of the rate of 100, we will receive each time (mathematically) only 100 * 1.18 * 70 \u003d 82.6, i.e. 17.4 units of loss.

But the bet on the outsider becomes profitable. It is clear that he wins less frequently, but any bet on it will, on average, bring us (100 * 4 * 0.3 \u003d 120) 20 mines.

Actually, on this, the strategy "" - to find events whose coefficient is seriously overestimated in comparison with the real chances of athletes. This does not mean that it is necessary to put exclusively on outsiders (although the line is practically "overwhelmed" in favor of the favorite), if only because in some matches, the expected distribution of funds and pure chances approximately coincide and the bet on the outsider will also become unprofitable. It is necessary to seek the advantage over the line in each case and put if you discovered it.

The latter, what I want to say - notice, in fact, you do not win not at the bookmaker (which is still, he will receive a profit anyway), but for those players who put with a negative mathematical expectation on the opposite outcome. The wording "Win from the bookmaker" was initially erroneous. Actually, all experienced players know about it perfectly well, but they do not like to tell about it at all. Where it sounds neutrally "won in the BC".

Almost every sports amateur knows what the bookmaker office is. Many even make bets in them, and some earn good money. And yet, what is the bookmaker and how does it work?

Bets - This is a company that accepts rates on the outcomes of various events. As a rule, these are sports, tournaments and matches. However, forecasts and unfortunate events are common in the West. For example, to elections to the authorities or for events of cultural and entertainment, such as Eurovision.

How the bookmaker : All the work of the bookmaker office is based on a mathematical model, which allows you to make the calculation of the probability of outcomes of various events in such a way that the bookmaker has large chances of profit. How do the bookmakers do you earn?

It all begins with the fact that the bookmaker constitutes a ruler of the events to which you can bet. Depending on the magnitude of the office in the line can be from several tens to several thousand different events at the same time. Each of the events has several outcomes. For example, in football this is the victory of the team A, the victory of the team b or draw. Each outcome is assigned a coefficient depending on the probability of outcome: the higher the probability, the coefficient will be lower and vice versa. For example:

Manchester United - Everton 1.15 2.60 6.80

In the above example, the ultimate favorite performs MJ, so the coefficient for their victory is only 1.15 points. This means that putting, for example, to the victory of UNITED 100 USD. In case of victory of mancuniters, the winnings will be 100x1.15 \u003d 115 cu or 15 cu net profit. At the same time you can risk and put on Everton. Then, if successful, net profit will be 100x6.80-100 \u003d 580 USD. But the risk is too large.

The majority will put on the MJ and in the event that no sensation occurs, the bookmaker will be forced to pay winnings to its customers with 15% of profits. However, partially losses will be offset by those who risk to put at least a draw or to win guests. At the same time, one person who was not the victory of Manchester United, will cover his bet on payments 6-7 to customers who made a bet on the MJ in comparable amount. For example, if one person will deliver 100 cu on a draw, and another 6 people will be put on 100 cu To the victory of the hosts, the cash flow of the office will look like this:

The arrival of rates: 1 client x 100 cu + 6 clients x 100 cu \u003d 700 cu

Payments to the winners: 6 clients x 100 cu x 1.15 \u003d 690 cu

Profit / loss: 700 cu - 690 cu \u003d 10 cu

As can be seen even in such a situation, the bookmaker can make a profit. In addition, you should not forget that according to statistics in such confrontations, the favorites win in 70-75% of cases. That is, at least in every fourth case, the bookmaker will receive a substantial profit due to the fact that many of his clients, putting on an explicit favorite, will lose their money because of the unfortunate game of the team chosen by them.

What are the sports bets?

Sport rates Interesting and exciting and gambling. The principle of sports betting is pretty simple: the bookmaker (bookmaker) offers players to betrayal (make a bet) according to the coefficient it set by the outcome of any sporting event.
Simply put, each outcome of the sports event corresponds to its coefficient set by the bookmaker. For example, in the tennis match, Dementieva - Kuznetsova, the victory of Dementieva is estimated at 1.6. That is, putting 1000 rubles for the success of Elena, in the case of its winning, the player receives 1600 rubles. The Svetlana Kuznetsova's victory is 2.2, and with its success, you can get 2,200 rubles.
The bookmaker establishes the coefficient on the basis of the likelihood of this or that results in its assessment. The coefficients are usually constantly changing. Their changes affect the news and opinion of the players, people who make bets. But if the bet is already concluded, the winning coefficient will change can no longer.
Any bookmaker tries to imagine as much sports and betting options for sporting events, trying to please anyone desire for the player. For example, who will score the first goal, or how much will be in the match of yellow cards and folshes or the exact match of the match. In the first place in the number of bets at bookmakers is football, then hockey, basketball and tennis. Sport rates make fans on their favorite teams, professional players
For a beginner, the sport rates may seem like a very simple M for a profitable occupation. In fact, everything is not so easy. A lot of different factors affect the result of the competition: the physical condition of the players, motivation, mood after the last match, judges, weather conditions, is a game of home or away, etc. Therefore, cases where the explicit favorite loses the outsider - not uncommon.
The profession of the bookmaker is to predict sports events and in providing the opportunity to make a bet on the outcome of any game. The skill of the bookmaker is to determine the likelihood of a particular match as accurately as possible. How many people are so many opinions. From here and the subject of an intellectual dispute arises - each player has its own alignment for the upcoming duel. Moreover, you can win both a player and a bookmaker, and the outcome of betting becomes known only after the end of the sporting event.

How do bookmakers work?
Bookmakers work exclusively to extract profits. And, contrary to widespread opinion, the profit of the bookmaker depends not on the number of lost rates, but from competently exhibited coefficients. This means that with any, even the right unexpected event, the bookmaker will remain with profit.
Consider how coefficients are formed. First, analysts define the chances of the teams. This is done in different ways that can be divided into two groups: analytical and heuristic. Analytical is mostly statistics and mathematics (probability theory), heuristic - these are expert assessments. Those or otherwise combining the results obtained, the probabilities of the event outcomes are output. Suppose, as a result of the work of analysts and experts, the following probabilities of outcomes were obtained:

That is, from each players delivered by all the players in the amount of one hundred thousand rubles, 75,000 was put on a victory 1, 15,000 on a draw and 10,000 - to win 2. Most players most often puts on the obvious favorites, based on such outcomes most of the eccresses . What will the bookmaker receive hundreds of thousands of dollars in the case of various outcomes?

Those, in the event of the victory of the favorite, which happens most often, the bookmaker will incur losses. This is certainly unacceptable for any business, and the bookmaker must eliminate even theoretical probability of such a situation.
To do this, he must artificially underestimate the coefficient on the favorite. The bookmaker does not know in advance how the bets are distributed exactly, but knows for sure that the players will "ship" on the favorite, so for insurance oversleep the likelihood of favorite victory.
In reality, neither the actual chances nor the distribution of funds by the players cannot accurately calculate, there is always some error. Therefore, the bookmakers are trying to initially underestimate the coefficients on the favorite to guarantee their profits, i.e. Determine the chances of the teams and add 10-20% victory to the calculated probability. And as rates are received, depending on their real current distribution, varies with the coefficients so that the profit is the greatest.

The bookmaker's bookmaker depends only on the professionalism of analysts that exhibit coefficients. Therefore, at 1000 bets, 100 rubles, a player as you can win, it is quite likely that a million rubles can also lose all your money. Success in the sports betting directly depends on the player's intelligence and the results of sports matters independent from the bookmaker.