As a bookmaker determines the coefficients. Strategy of rates for high coefficients Search for overestimated coefficients

Value Betting How to play and how to find a wound rate in bookmaker coefficients, we will spend 2 experiments with a scanner and manually.

Wound rates or bets with a translate how to play

The Value Betting system is a strategy that offers to put users on undervalued events.

Vyuyan bets (bets with a translate) - these are bets on undervalued events from bookmakers. That is, where the BC coefficient is higher than the real one.

To fully understand the nature of this strategy, we climb a bit into the theory of probability.

Question: Why most players lose their money from bookmakers?

Answer: Because they put a bet on the coefficient proposed by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and probability in the long run.

Unclear? I will explain on the example, the bookmakers will not tell you about it: let's say you always put the 200r on the coefficient of 1.6. This means that the bookmaker determines the likelihood of the passage of these events as 100 / 1.6 \u003d 62.5%.

Which in turn says that according to statistics in an invisible long term you will lose in 37.5% of cases. And it negates all the money won before that.

Total mathematical expectation of your average arrival in time will be:

Profit \u003d P * (K-1) * V - (1-p) * v

• P is the probability of an event (value from 0 to 1);
• K - the coefficient of the 2007 Offer;
• V - money you put.

Calculate on real numbers from the example above

Profit \u003d 0.625 * (1.6 - 1) * 200 - (1-0,625) * 200 \u003d 75 - 75 \u003d 0

Bad news? There is even worse. An important nuance: the bookmaker has a margin (it means the default probability is more real, and the coefficient is less -), which automatically reduces profits in the figure less than 0. I think you understand what it means.

How to be?

And now let's go back to the definition of a bet with a translate or Value Bet.

Renewed bets (wound bets) is a strategy at which you must put on undervalued coefficients with an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, the probability issued by the bookmaker, in your opinion, is not a real probability of outcome.

Example: Match Argentina-Chile Bookmaker puts on the victory of Argentina coefficient 1.6 which means, the likelihood of this event is 62.5%, and you consider that the probability of 80%, which means the real coefficient must be 100/80 \u003d 1.25

How to understand that this is a bet with a translate? The condition (formula Value Betting) must be executed:

• K is the coefficient of the bookmaker
• P- Your probability of positive outcome.

We will calculate, substitute the data from the example:

1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28 > 1

1.28 - 1 \u003d 0.28. This means that if you bet on such events, then in the long run despite the loss your profits will be 28% of each bet.

(You can find the calculator below, so as not to count it all by hand)

Substitute the data in the formula reflecting the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player will make 100 rates

Profit \u003d 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200R - 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200r \u003d 9600 - 4000 \u003d 5600 rubles

Q.E.D

How much to put

To choose the optimal amount of the rate depending on the risk and abundance of outcome, often use the strategy. It allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank you can put on the current rate.

How to find winged rates

All this is great, but how to find wound bets on football, hockey and other sports, where the value of the bet is determined by the overestimated coefficients.

Here you have 3 possible ways

Find in line overvalued bet ratios

If you are very well versed in a specific sport and consider yourself a true expert who can estimate all the factors affecting the result of the event, the flag in your hands. But I dickly doubt that your expertise will be stronger than the team of experts from BC engaged in this professionally.

Using a rack scanner with a translate, he also service Wuyan rates

The principle of their action lies in the fact that they scan the coefficients to a specific event in a large number of the offices and calculate the arithmetic average. Then compare it with each coefficient separately, which give off the offices.

According to the assumption, the average value is the most accurate value, because all experts from all scanned BC worked on it.

We conclude that, the value that differs from the average to the biggest and there is an undervalued event.

Where to find sites of scanners of bets with a translate? Many of the services of the forks in provide such an opportunity, for example, Supiet.

Search for bets with a turn among the forks.

Fork - source. The very existence of the fork denotes that one of the events underestimated. The plug is essentially the initiator bet with a translate. Read more, you may find out a lot of new things for yourself.

If the service gives more liva fork, then here you are wound bets in Lyiv. Their main minus lack of time for careful analysis.

Let's go back ... After conducting an analysis of the coefficients of other offices, you can easily guess which of the events is more undervalued.

Let's try to do all this in the field on the real coefficients.

Value Betting in practice. 2 Case

Case 1. Search for a fork scanner

Take the real plug in the hockey match of the United States - Canada

1/1,5+1/3,32 = 0,9678 < 1, значит вилка есть

Now let's try to determine which of the coefficients is overvalued by analyzing other bookmakers

Calculate the average there and there:

(1,47+1,4+1,43+1,4+1,46+1,42+1,42+1,45) / 8 = 1,43

(2,82+3,0+2,9+2,85+2,94+2,85+2,85+2,78) / 8 = 2,87

Live broadcast, perhaps everything, so we get both outcome undervalued

• 1,43 < 1,5 на 1,5-1,43 = 0,07 это 3,27%
• 2,87 < 3,32 на 3,32-2,87 = 0,45 это 4,72%

and you can put on any, but the outcome Under (4,5) He same TM (4,5) More undervalued, so we put on it.

Case 2. Manual search

Case as you can manually try to determine Value Bet

As an example, take the match of the British Premier League between Newcastle and Tottenham. Suppose that even before the start of the match, you conducted a deep analysis and realized that the bookmaker set the coefficients with distortion. Now you need to check if you are right.

To do this, use the formula that was previously given:

The coefficient for the victory of the host is 4.6. If you believe the statistics of past matches, Newcastle usually wins 1 match out of 4. This means that based on the theory of probability, the owners win 25% of the fights.

If we substitute our data in the formula, then we get: 4.6 * 0.25 \u003d 1.15. If the result is more than one, then this rate will be profitable.

As can be seen from the example above, our bid has played. However, our system itself is quite dubious. The Value Bet strategy is good at a long distance. You can also apply it in symbiosis with the strategy "". The main thing is the final result of the calculation according to the formula must be greater than one.

Calculator Voyan betting

For convenience, the Value Betting Calculator is located online service - a program where you can calculate the profitability of the bet.

1. field - enter the coefficient that gives a bookmaker to an event
2. field - We introduce your personal probability estimate in percent

Conclusions. Is it profitable to use Valeueng. Feedback.

According to the theory of probability, yes, but:

1. You need a really large number of bets so that the statistics do their job (not 10, not 20 and not even 100, and more). Are you ready for this?
2. Are you sure that the bets that you will really be will be vuance?

But in defense can also be given arguments:

1. Compared with forks, you do not need to risk and put a bunch of bets on all the shoulders at the same time.
2. Your account will not block, since your behavior will most like the behavior of an ordinary player.
3. Profit is more than in forks.

15.11.2017

The concept of valuable bet (Value Betting) is one of the key in the bookmaker. Evaluation of the real probability of a particular event allows not only to find unreasonably overpriced coefficients, but also to be in a plus.

Heavy coefficients

The essence of the game on the overestimated coefficients is that the player estimates the likelihood of a particular outcome, compares it with bookmaker quotes, and if the coefficients are overestimated (there is an underestimation), it is possible to testify about the wounds of this event and the prospects of the bet. For a better understanding of Value, consider a well-known example with a coin, it is possible only two outages: an eagle or a rush.

If you provide the likelihood of each event in the coefficients, they will be equal to two. This follows from the fact that the coefficient is equal to the attitude of the probability, that is, 50%, to 100%.

Suppose that the bookmaker office has proposed the markets, exposing the coefficients for the falling out of the eagle and the rushka 1.90 and 2.10, respectively. Considering that in reality, the likelihood of both outcomes is absolutely equal, the copyright coefficient is valuable, insofar as bookmaker set an overwhelmed coefficient.

Value is calculated so:

(probability of outcome * decimal coefficient) - 100%

We define the value of the bet on the col.

We know that the chance of the loss of the rush is 50%, and the bookmaker is peded at 2.10

(50 * 2.10) - 100% = 5%

The bid is Voyan and definitely suits us, because Its value is 5%. If the same formula calculates Value for an eagle, then it will be negative and, in this case, it is better to refuse the bet. The main principle of valuable rates is that the player risking a smaller amount is trying to win more.

Advantage of bookmakers office

Obviously, in practice not everything is so simple. The reality is that such situations will not offer such a bookmaker, because simply goes. Moreover, even 1.90 coefficient for equilibly outcomes is a rarity. Everything is explained by the fact that bookmaker establishes margin that guarantees it to receive income from all rates. It is worth noting that when choosing a bookmaker office to do this, pay special attention, because high margin negatively affects the player's earnings, especially on a long distance.

Consider a real example. In early October, a match in a female single discharge was held at the Tennis Tournament in Beijing between M. Sharapova and Romaniac S. Halep. The victory of Mary was estimated to the coefficient of 1.74, Simons - 2.22. It was explained by the fact that in the history of full-time meetings, the Russians led with a score of "7: 0", and the last match between the rivals took place a little more than a month ago. However, with a detailed analysis of the match, which includes not only the assessment of statistical data, but also viewing matches broadcasts, it becomes obvious that the chances of Romanian are above 45.5% proposed by the bookmaker. Suppose it is 50%.

Calculate the value of the bet on p. Halep in this match:

(50 * 2.22) - 100% = 11%

FirstlySharapova began to make much more mistake. SecondlyIn the event of victory in the tournament, Romanian would be the first racket of the world. Thirdly, thirst for revenge, which no one has canceled. Based on the foregoing, it was possible to say that the chances of Halep over 45.5%, which means that in front of the player a good prospect of a successful bet.

Search for overestimated coefficients

The "overwhelmed" coefficients are one of the strategies (Value Betting strategy), which is based on tactics not only experienced, but also beginner kapper. However, it is necessary to understand that you can find such coefficients only by analyzing the event, take into account all the factors affecting the outcome.

Evaluation of the real probability and comparison with the coefficient proposed by the bookmaker will allow you to identify undervalued events and reduce the bookmaker. Therefore, it is not surprising that professional players are constantly trying to calculate the possibility of outcome, comparing it with bookmakers in the search for Voyny rates, while conducting time on news sites in search of valuable information, including information about injuries, weather conditions, personnel permutations.

Strategy of bets on the overestimated coefficients, which is customary called « Value.betting. "This is nothing more than bets on those that the bookmaker office underestimated and put the coefficient higher than the player identified by conducting its own analysis.

The player of the bookmaker office is purposefully looking for an event in the bookmaker line, where the coefficient for a certain outcome will be higher than that should be. In other words, the likelihood that the outcome will actually play higher than the bookmaker determined.

Player, defining the likelihood of outcome, compares the resulting indicator with probabilitywhich the bookmaker defined and if the coefficient of the bookmaker is valuable (Value), the player bets. If the coefficient is not valuable, the bet on this outcome is not done.

Of course, you say, the likelihood that Barcelona will win at Elche high, why all these analyzes and how the bookmaker may underestimate the chances of Barcelona to win. Naturally, such outcomes are not taken into account, the coefficients will be minimal on them, which means they will not earn.

In order to make a profit in the bookmaker, you need to be able to find winning outcomes with good coefficients. Making bets on smaller coefficients, so to speak, play by favorites, you are doomed to losing, which awaits you at the distance. Sooner or later, Barcelona stood up and your bank burns.

Strategy Bar

Value Betting rates strategy Ensures the game on equal commands, or even on outsider.

It happens that the coefficient to the outcome is reduced even before the event starts. The fall in the coefficients may not always be due to the fact that the bookmaker makes changes in quotes based on the fact that the commands have increased.

Chances of the team can stay the same as before lowering the coefficient. However, the bookmaker lowers the coefficient when the number of rates is growing. The bookmaker thereby insures itself using the coefficient reduction strategy.

A similar phenomenon with a decrease in the coefficient is called " proof" That is, the coefficient falls (emerges) due to the growth of the amount and the number of bets on this outcome.

The meaning of the strategy of bets on the overestimated coefficient is that it is necessary to find an outcome with good coefficientwhich will only fall in the future. It means that he will play, will only increase.

An example can be the game on the currency exchange, or on other similar stock exchanges, etc. The task of brokers is to predict the further movement of quotations and make appropriate purchases.

So, in order to understand the value of the coefficient, which offers us a bookmaker, you need to make an independent analysis and calculate the likelihood of outcome.

Beginner players often do not pay attention to the lowered quotes in the tennis rates. Having a minimal margin, the bookmakers beat the tettors on a long distance. A small difference in margin significantly affects the increase in the gaming bank and the income of the Bettor at the distance.

Today we consider a special way to find overestimated quotes from bookmakers.

Fast passage

The way to search for overestimated CEFs in tennis

For example, consider a standard tennis duel consisting of three sets. The bookmaker appreciated the victory of the first tennis player for 2.1, and the exact account was applied for 4.5. Of course, the Bettor can conclude two equivalent betting on the exact account that in the end will give a slight plus. For example, if the initial bet amount was 1.000, then 1,000 can be divided into two equal parts and put on the exact account, namely 500 to 2: 0 and 500 to 2: 1. Of course, the only condition is the victory of the chosen tennis player. As a result, when victory wins one of two bets and the winnings will be 2.250. And if you initially take a pure victory for 2.1, then the profit would be 2.100. The difference in 150 played a key role.

We consider that one bookmaker will not allow such an oversight, so it is worth finding the necessary quotes in other bookmakers. For example, in the first bookmaker's office, the exact account 2: 0 is estimated by analysts in 5, and in the second 2: 1 for 4.5. It would seem that there is a small difference of 0.5, but in fact a small difference in the coefficients will play a crucial role, which will affect the increase in the game bank at the distance. Similar actions of the Better can be carried out with the search for the net profit of tennis player. For example, Better is confident in the victory of a specific tennis player, but the pure victory is estimated at 1.5. To find the right coefficient, we view the lines in other bookmaker offices. Even a small difference in 0.1 - 0.2 at a distance will give significant fruits, especially if the amount rate is essential.

Stages of searching for overestimated quotes for the match

To find the overestimated coefficient, follow the following plan:

1. The first step is the choice of the appropriate event. Often, before the start of confrontation, the coefficients are very much falling at the Victoria of the tennis player, which makes it possible to play the "Fork" strategies, namely to make two opposite rates in order to get 100% profit. Of course, such actions, the office leaves the root to the root and blocks the player's account, so we will stop exclusively on the search. The first thing is important to view - what tennis player put the most. Often, it is the selected tennis player - a favorite of the meeting, which complicates the task, since quotes instantly fall and find the overestimated coefficient is difficult. In this case, you need to select matches a day before the meeting started. Often, it was on the day of the match the quotation match down and misses the chance to catch an overwhelmed coefficient for the upcoming match. After selecting a suitable event, proceed to the second step.
2. The second step is to preliminarize the event. "Blind" choice will not give substantial profits, especially on a long distance. It is important to identify the motivation of the tennis player to the upcoming match, the state and stimulus to victory, as well as view the statistics of the last meetings.
3. The third, the final step is to find the overestimated coefficient on the bookmaker's lines. As mentioned, a minor margin will affect the playing bank at the distance. Therefore, it is important to view all the available lines and bet on the selected outcome.

Following such a plan, the Bettor will be able to search for suitable events and put the twisted bet on the long distance.

Event search example

Given that this article is written in the early morning of September 9, choose the nearest tennis event. For example, the choice fell on the evening finals of the US Open - a significant tennis tournament. Confrontation Novak Djokovich and Juan Martin Del Potro. Favorite meeting - Novak Jokovic. Without the analysis of the upcoming event, we assume that the Bettor chooses the victory of the Argentine tennis player, going outsider in the match. Opening the line in Beth City, the Better notices that the coefficient for the victory of the Argentine is 2.9, which is very risky for the bet. Then the betor looks at all sorts of lines in order to catch the overestimated coefficient. In "Parimatch" - 2.9, "Marathon" - 2.99, "Favbet" - 2.7, "1xbet" - 2.77. As can be seen, quotes differ significantly. Of course, the choice of player falls on the marathon, where the victory of the Argentine tennis player is estimated at 2.99. The difference in quotes is 0.29, which will significantly affect the possible gain at the rate.
For example, if the difference is 0.2, then for five winning rates, the bank will increase the rate. Suppose that the maximum bet is fixed and is 1.000. With five bets won, Better will replenish the game bank for extra 1.000.

Output

At first glance it will seem that the search for the desired quotations is a waste of time. However, if you take extra 5-6 minutes to search for suitable quotes for each individual event, you can significantly increase your own gaming bank on a long distance.

If you make bets on the outcome of sports competitions, you need to be able to deal with betting coefficients. In addition, you need to learn how to quickly calculate the likely win for various rates, especially when they change along the sport event. Rate coefficients determine the likelihood of a certain event (the team wins, the boxer will win) and the amount you will receive in the event of your winnings. But there are several ways to transfer such information.

Steps

Part 1

1. Rate coefficients determine the likelihood (chance) of the accomplishment of a certain event, that is, what a team, a horse or an athlete has a higher chance of winning. There are various ways to record rates coefficients, but they all indicate the likelihood of a particular outcome of the sports event.

   • For example, throwing the coin, either eagle or the rush will fall out. Chances are the same, that is, the "one to one" is equal.
   • For example, rain will go with a probability of 80%, that is, there are 20% chance that the rain will not be. Chances: 80 to 20. Or they say that the likelihood that rains will go four times higher.
   • Circumstances change spontaneously, therefore, chances (and with them and rates) also change. This is not an accurate science.

2. In most cases, rates are made on the outcome of a particular sporting event. For example, on the likelihood of team victory, athlete or horses. Bookmakers use statistical data (teams, athletes, horses) to predict who wins.

   • The team, an athlete or horse with a higher chance of "favorite". If the chances are low, then, most likely, the event will not happen.

3. Remember that low chances bring more profits. Put on outsiders more risky than on favorites, but the higher the risk, the higher the potential win.

   • The smaller the chance of victory, the more money you can win.

4. Know the terminology of rates. The value of such terminology can be found in the bookmaker, but it is better to know it in advance (before you bet).

   • The bank is the amount of money allocated by the betting player.
   • Bookmaker ("Buki") - a person or agency, receiving rates paying winnings and setting rates.
   • Favorite is a competitor to the competition with the highest chances of winning (according to the bookmaker).
   • Fork - bets at the same time on the favorite and on the outsider, allowing you to reduce losses to a minimum.
   • The line is a certain list of events and their outcomes with installed coefficients.
   • The rate is the amount of money that the player puts on the likelihood of a certain event

   Part 2

   British (fractional) rates coefficients

   Part 3.

   American rate coefficients

   1. Remember that there are only the chances of winning the bets. American rates coefficients are positive or negative numbers affixed near team names. A negative number determines the favorite, and the positive is an outsider.

      • For example, "Dala-Cowboys", -135; "Seattle Sihoks", 135. This means that the "cowboys" are favorites, but you will get a smaller win in the event of their victory.
      • If you do not understand American coefficients, find the online calculator to calculate your winning and profit. But over time you will learn how to do it manually.

   2. A positive coefficient indicates what profit you get for every $ 100 set (you will also pay the amount that you set). For example, if you put 100 dollars at Sihox, then in case of victory of this team you will win $ 235 (your profits will be $ 135).

      • If you put 200 dollars, then your profit will double. To calculate the profit for each dollar delivered, divide the amount you put on 100.
      • The result resulting multiplies the bet ratio to calculate the profits. For example, if you put 50 dollars, then (50/100) x 135 \u003d 67.50 dollars. This is the size of your profits.
      • For example, if you put $ 250 on "Cowboys", in case of victory of this team you will win $ 587.50 (250 + 135 x).

   3. A negative ratio indicates how much you have to put to get 100 dollars. Putting on the favorite, you are less risky, therefore, and less win. For example, to make a profit of $ 100, on Cowboys, it is necessary to put $ 135 (you will also pay the amount you set).

      • To calculate the profits for each dollar delivered 100 to the rate ratio. If the bet ratio is -150, then you will receive 66 cents per dollar supplied (100/150).
      • For example, if the bet ratio is -150, and you put $ 90, your winnings will be $ 150 (90 + 90 x).