Fed rate. What will increase the raising of the Fed? Raising rate. What will happen to the dollar after the decision of the Fed what is the federal backup system

On December 16, 2015, the US Federal Reserve raised a key rate by 0.25%. It caused a considerable resonance in the global economic community - after all, the last time the rate was changed in mid-2006. What is the need for such changes, and what can they lead to?

What is the basic interest (key) rate?

This indicator is a percentage, which bank organizations occupy funds from the central bank of the country (in America its function is performed by the Fed). Interest rate interest rates, under which banks issue loans to ordinary citizens, cannot be lower than the established key rate - otherwise credit institutions will start working at a loss. The 2008 financial crisis, which began in America and gradually spread to the whole world, forced the American authorities to go to an unprecedented step and reduce the value of the key bet before a record low, varying in the range from 0 to 0.25%.

The temporary measure, aimed at stimulating the economy and the exit from the current difficult financial situation, was delayed, and the importance of the basic interest rate was changed towards the increase only in mid-December 2015.

How is the change in the key rate of the Fed affect the dollar?

According to analysts, the change in the interest rate will have a significant impact on the dollar rate in relation to the ruble (). Thus, Moody's rating agency prepared a report in which the substantial vulnerability of the Russian economy to changes in the internal financial policy of states. The same opinion adheres to I. Didenko, which is a member of the International Union of Economists. According to him, the increase in the key rate will lead to the strengthening of the dollar, and, as a result, decrease in the ruble exchange rate.

Russian analysts that are representatives of the authorities are much more optimistic. The Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation S. Shvetsov announced the likely strengthening of the ruble and reducing the dollar.

E. Nabiullina, who occupies the head of the Central Bank, noted that the ratio of the ruble and the dollar is influenced by the set of many factors, including oil prices, the foreign policy situation in the world, the economic interaction of Russia with partner countries, so the change in the key rate will not have a significant Influence on the value of the dollar.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukayev said that the decision made by the Fed was not a surprise to anyone, and the intended growth of the key rate was taken into account when concluding contracts for oil supplies.

Changing the US FRC key rate by 0.25 points increased the cost of the US currency in the global market. However, the rather small size of this indicator allows us to conclude that the radical jumps of the currency exchange rate will not happen - so, since the decision to increase the rate of the dollar rate relative to the ruble increased by no more than the ruble. A much greater impact on the ruble price is provided for oil prices ().

Moscow, 14 Dec - RIA Novosti.The US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate to 1.25-1.5% from 1-1.25% per annum. World oil prices after this news continued to decline.

Three more raises

Most members of the Fed Open Markets Committee predict three rates of the base rate in 2018 to an average level of 2.25%.

According to the DOT Plot schedule (forecast of the rate speakers), six representatives of the regulator expect that the rate in 2018 will increase to the average level of 2.25%.

Three of them expect rates of another 0.25 percentage points, the rest believe that the rate should be increased only to a level of 2%.

As for 2019, four members of the Council regulator do not exclude that the bet will increase in five or more times. In the long run, the Fed now predicts a bet at 3.1%, increasing the forecast from the past 3%.

The market is fully ready

An independent economic expert Anton Shabanov believes that the market's reaction to the Fed solution will be minimal.

"Very good strong reporting was constantly stably in the American market, and the market assumed in advance that this raising raising would be on 25 basis points, which happened," he said.

According to him, over the next year, it is also expected to continue increasing this rate.

Forecast for GDP growth

In addition, the Fed raised the forecast for the growth of the US economy in 2017 to 2.5% from the expected 2.4%, in 2018 - up to 2.5% from 2.1%.

In the long run, the Fed expects the growth of the US economy by an average of 2%, unemployment of 4.7% and inflation at a level of 2%.

About Bitcoin

The head of the US Federal Reserve System, Janet Yellen, also expressed the opinion of Bitcoin. According to her, this is an unfortunate high-alkaline asset that can be used to launder money.

"Fed does not want to play any regulatory role in relation to Bitcoin," she said.

About successor

She also stated that I was confident in the ability of my successor to manage the organization.

The term of office of the current chairman of the Fed Janet Yelevlen expires the third of February 2018. In the fifth of December, the Banking Committee of the Senate of the US Congress by a majority of votes approved the candidacy of a member of the Board of Governors of Fed Powell.

"He is one of those who work in the Council of Governors of the Fed for several years. He was part of the solutions that we took. Mr. Powell is very well prepared. It has an excellent understanding of what is happening," said Yellen.

She also emphasized that she believed that Powell would retain the apolitical nature of the decisions taken by the Fed.

The Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) of the United States decided to increase the base rate - by 0.25 percentage points, up to 0.75-1%. The previous increase in the indicator took place three months ago, in December 2016. Then the regulator gave a forecast that in 2017 the rate will be raised three times - to the level of 1.375% this forecast that talks about tightening politics, preserved. The increase in the borrowed price of the dollar contributed to a confident employment growth in the United States and the approach of American inflation to the target. The Russian ruble, the Fed decision can have a limited weakening effect through a possible decrease in oil prices.

According to the results of the two-day meeting, the Open Market Committee raised the basic interest rate located in the target range of 0.5-0.75% per annum, by 0.25 percentage points - up to 0.75-1%. This is only a third increase in the rates over the past ten years. For the first time during this period, it was raised in December 2015, the second time - in December 2016.

Just a few weeks ago, raising rates were considered at the March meeting, participants in the markets as not too likely an event - however, in recent weeks, the consensus has changed. The head of the Fed Janet Yellen and the leaders of other reserve banks, hinting at the increase, referred to the improvement of the situation in the economy: the unemployment rate in the United States in February decreased again - up to 4.7% from 4.8% in January (235 thousand jobs were created. that is higher than the average). Business indexes are at maxima, pointing to potential acceleration of growth. Inflation in the United States in January accelerated to 2.5% - a five-year maximum - from 2.1% in December (however, the indicator on which the Fed is focused, the inflation of personal spending remains below 2% - in January 1.7%). In addition, the Fed no longer experiences former concern about the influence of the US global economy's influence - the growth of the Eurozone GDP accelerated, and the Chinese economy has stabilized.

Since the confidence in raising the rate today was almost universal, the main event was the publication of new macroeconomic forecasts of the Fed and the possible schedule of the following increases. The regulator has retained its forecast for the growth of the US economy in 2017 at the level of 2.1%, the forecast for inflation dynamics is also left for the same - at the level of 1.9%. The forecast for unemployment has not changed - 4.5%. Most members of the open market committee are expecting two more raises in the base rate in 2017 - to an average level of 1.375%.

The Russian financial market, new rates in the United States will affect, rather indirectly - through their pressure on the price of oil. The International Monetary Fund in the review prepared for the "Twenty meetings" does not exclude the acceleration of capital outflow from emerging markets due to the decision of the Fed. However, to financially isolated Russia, this applies to in a lesser extent - it is primarily about developing countries with a high level of public debt and economy, closely linked to the US dollar.

Vadim Vistoguz, Tatyana Evodina

Fed moved a bet on raising

The Fed of the United States in December last year raised a rate of 0.25 percentage points - to 0.5-0.75%. Most of the participants in the open market committee predict that in 2017 it will be raised three times. Such expectations indicate the tightening of monetary policy - against the background of the forecast growth of inflation in the United States due to the fiscal initiatives of Donald Trump administration. For the ruble and other Russian assets, the effects of raising the rate will be limited, experts believe.

Improved US GDP growth forecast for 2018

Moscow. December 13th. Website - Federal Reserve System (Fed) The United States on the meeting December 12-13 decided to increase the interest rate on federal credit funds (Federal Funds Rate) on 25 basis points - up to 1.25-1.50% per annum, refers to the federal communist Committee on Open Markets (FOMC).

The FOMC decision coincided with the overwhelming majority of economists and market participants.

In 2018, three increase in interest rates still predicts.

The heads of the US Central Bank improved US GDP growth forecast for 2018 from 2.1% to 2.5%, confirmed the forecast of PCE inflation at 1.9%.

"The information obtained after the November meeting of the FOMC indicates the continuing strengthening of the labor market and the growth of economic activity with confident (Solid) pace," the communiqué says.

At the previous meeting, the Fed gave the same assessment of the situation in the economy.

"The average growth rates of the number of jobs for the period after were confident, and the unemployment rate continued to decline," the consumer spending was marked by a moderate pace, and the growth rate of business investments in fixed capital accelerated in the last quarters. "

"In annual terms, both the overall inflation rate and inflation without taking into account food prices and fuel, inflation slowed down this year and are below 2%," the document says.

"The market indicators of inflation compensation remain low, the indicators of long-term inflationary expectations based on surveys generally changed slightly," the leaders of Fedrev.

"The duty FOMC is to promote the maximum employment of the population and price stability. The negative consequences of hurricanes and restoration work influenced economic activity, employment and inflation in recent months, but did not lead to significant changes in the forecast of the American economy," the statement is noted.

"Accordingly, FOMC continues to expect that with the gradual correction of the nature of the monetary policy, economic activity will increase by moderate pace, and the labor market indicators will remain strong. It is expected that inflation in annual terms will remain somewhat below 2% in the near future, but stabilizes Near the target level FOMC in 2% in the medium term, "the statement said.

"Short-term risks for an economic forecast look approximately balanced, however, FOMC carefully tracks inflation indicators", it is noted in the document.

"Taking into account the past and expected conditions in the labor market and inflation, the Committee decided to increase the target range of interest rates on federal loan funds up to 1.25-1.50%. The monetary policy rate remains stimulating, maintaining a strong labor market situation and Sustainable return to 2 percent inflation, "said Fedrezer.

"When determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target interest rate on federal loan funds, the Committee will evaluate both already implemented and expected economic conditions compared to targets: maximum employment and inflation at 2%. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information , including indicators of the conditions in the labor market, indicators of inflationary pressure and inflation expectations, as well as data on changing financial and international conditions, "is noted in the document.

"The Committee will carefully monitor the actual and expected change in inflation regarding the target level. The Fed expects the nature of the economic situation changes will give grounds for a gradual increase in interest rates. For some time, the interest rate is likely to remain below the level that will prevail in the long-term In the future. However, the actual trajectory of the interest rate change will depend on the economic forecast based on the incoming data, "the Fed clarifies.

The solutions were a majority in seven votes "for" at two "against". The head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Chicago Charles Evans and his colleague from the FRB Minneapolis Nile Cashkari voted against because they still wanted to preserve the interest rate at the same level.

The next FOMC meeting will be held on January 30-31, 2018 and will officially become the last for Janet Yelev as the head of Fed. From February 3, it will be changed in this post by Jerome Powell. According to the expectations of market participants and members of the Fed, in the January meeting, the rate will not change.

Of the 100 economists surveyed 95 expected an increase in key rates by 0.25 percentage points. According to futures at the CME Group (group of the Chicago Commodity Exchange), on the day before the meeting, the probability of increasing the rate of 0.25 percentage points. accounted for 93.5%.

"Most investors have long been confident in the tightening of the US FRC's monetary policy in the June meeting, which means that this factor was taken into account when making changes to their portfolios," said Bogdan Zvarich, analyst of the FINAM GC.

Meaningful decision

"When making the decision of the Fed was guided by the achievement of the so-called full employment in the labor market," says Expert FG BCS Ivan Kopeikin.

Following the results of the last meeting (May 2-3), the experts point out the fact that significant decisions are accepted at expanded meetings with a press conference. So it happened - in the expanded meetings in March and in June it was decided to raise the rate. In 2017, two more expanded meetings will be held, September 19-20 and December 12-13.

The US Federal Reserve began a policy raising policy from December 14, 2015, raising a bet on 0.25 percentage points. A year later, in December 2015, the Fed raised a bet on 0.25 pp. The following increase by 0.25 pp It was in March 2017.

As stated on June 8 in an interview with Reuters, the head of the Department of Monetary Policy Central Bank Igor Dmitriev, the June increase in the Fed rate is already taken into account in the monetary policy of the Central Bank. According to him, it is necessary to pay attention to the associated comments. Fed accent on inflation or on the labor market will make it clear further Fed plans for raising the rate, he indicated.

Experts surveyed by RBC are also advised to pay attention to the comments of the Fed. As Zvarich notes, with an increase in the rate funding in dollars is becoming more expensive. As a result of this spread between the cost of funding and the profitability of Russian assets, it becomes less. Hence the decline in interest in Russian tools, explains the expert.

"The increase in the base rate is likely to reduce the appetite, and accordingly, it will negatively affect Russian assets and ruble, but the effect will be insignificant, as the decision has already been laid down in prices," said Expert FG BCS Ivan Kopeykin.

The change in the rhetoric of the Fed and the market expectations about the trajectory of raising the rate can affect the next steps of the Central Bank, indicates the senior analyst IR ATON on the macroeconomics and the debt markets of Jacob Yakovlev. According to Zvarich, if the Fed takes a pause in the rates cycle until December 2017, the Central Bank will be able to continue to reduce the rate at the nearest meetings.

"Naturally, raising the Fed rate will lead to some pressure on the Russian ruble (which, however, moderately favorably for exporters and the federal budget), indicates the Macroeconomic Counselor of the General Director of the Opening Broker Sergey Hestanov.

Reactions of markets

For the decision of the Fed, American indices reacted with a moderate decline. By 21:45 Moscow time in relation to the level of opening today, the S & P 500 decreased by 0.25%, to 2434.1 points, NASDAQ - by 0.53%, to 6188.2 points, industrial index Dow Jones - by 0, 06%, up to 21314.9 points. The DXY index (showing the attitude of the US dollar to the basket of six major currencies - US key trading partners) decreased by 0.07%, to 96.9 points.

For the ruble rate, the decision influenced moderately negatively. On the MICEX, the ruble rate in relation to the dollar decreased by 0.78%, to 57.42 rubles, in relation to euro - by 0.98%, to 64.51 rubles.