Abstract: Strategic risk management. Risk accounting in strategic management of enterprise development

In general, all risks that may arise in the process of enterprises are conditionally divided into the following types.

1. Well-known risks arising from a certain kind of impacts or changes in factors affecting the analyzed business type for example, the risks of payment of fines, the loss of part of the resources due to theft or security disorders, etc.

2. Anticipated risks, the possibility of which is predictable on the basis of the accumulated experience of enterprises. This is a loss of quality due to non-compliance with the requirements of the developed standards, contractual risks on the terms of prepayment, certain types of currency risks, etc.

3. Unforeseen risks that are predictable in advance due to the lack of experience and (or) information. To such risks should include changes for shareholders, changes in the political situation in the country, etc.

It should be noted that the strategic choice process always occurs in the conditions of multivariate alternatives, each of which is inherent in one or another type of risk.

Objective factors include those that do not depend on this enterprise and its stakeholders: the factors of the external business environment. Subjective factors include those factors that are directly related to the activities of the enterprise, its resource potential and the activities of its stakeholders.

To measure risks, it is necessary to determine the possible embodiments of the strategy that corresponds to a certain level of risk, and then the likelihood of each of these options. In practice, there are many criteria and indicators by which the level of risk is measured. Mostly the risk is characterized by two aspects: Volatility (variability of estimated indicators, the likelihood or frequency of events) and the sensitivity of criteria for their consequences. There are two main categories of risk meters:

Sensitivity indicators;

Probabilistic (statistical) values.

For the purposes of strategic planning, it is advisable to apply a risk level indicator recommended by many authors. This indicator for each specific strategy must be defined at the departure stage. This level can be set as a set of estimated criteria and borders of their deviations. The strategy is considered to be implemented if pre-defined deviations from evaluation criteria are achieved.

Initially, the risks that need to be considered when justifying and developing the development strategy of enterprises are divided into their scope:

Catastrophic; critical; significant; moderate; minor.

In addition, in the process of making strategic decisions at the enterprise level, it is necessary to take into account the different degree of sensitivity to the risks of various groups of stakeholders. In accordance with this, the following types of risks can be allocated;

Permissible; acceptable; unacceptable.

By performing risk analysis, it is advisable to classify them on the spheres of influence.

Accordingly, they can be divided into two groups.

1. Risks of an external business environment: Macroeconomic risks of the far environment; Risks of the neighboring environment.

2. Internal risks.

1. Macroeconomic risks of the long-environment can be conditionally divided into the following types:

1) political; 2) economic (financial); 3) Environmental; 4) production; 5) risks associated with the emergence of unforeseen force majeure circumstances.

The following types of risks should be attributed to the risks of the neighboring environment: 1) production; 2) scientific and technical; 3) socio-economic.

Subjective internal risks include the risks of making management decisions at all stages of planning and implementing the strategy (in particular, the risks of erroneously selected goals, improper discharge of SZH, breaking in strategic, tactical and operational planning, violation of the hierarchy of the subordination of the goals and plan, etc. ).

The objective internal risks include risks associated with various activities of the enterprise.

It should be noted that the above classification of risks is sufficiently conditional, since it is difficult to determine clear boundaries between different types of risks. All of them are in relationships, changing and complementing each other as in the direction of enhancing the effects of risk factors and in the direction of the weakening of such an impact. Risk levels can be different and depend on a large number of factors.

25. Management of strategic alliances: theory and practice of implementation

Strategic Alliance (Union) -Type of cooperation between enterprises (organizations) and the formation of their coalitions based on mutual needs.

examples of strategic alliances

In the Strategic Alliance, all partners must be equal when leaving it.

Secondly, most researchers do not recognize the existence of strategic alliances in other market spheres other than the labor market.

Thirdly, within the framework of the strategic alliance, equality is expected to benefit, which is provided for all its participants.

Taking into account the need to solve the above problems, it is possible to determine the strategic alliance as a coalition of two or more enterprises (organizations) created to achieve strategically significant goals that are mutually beneficial for them. These goals may have a political and (or) economic nature and be quite flexible.

At the same time, it should be noted that mutual benefit does not imply income equality, but all members of the alliance receive profits in proportion to their contribution.

Strategic alliances have a different purpose and number of participants. However, it is necessary to determine the minimum criteria that contribute to the formation of alliances. As such criteria are:

Strategically significant goals of activity;

The ability to get mutual (but not necessarily equal) benefits by participants;

The possibility of obtaining the benefits that cannot be obtained in a different way.

The formation of strategic alliances makes it possible to firms enough to penetrate new global markets, and without assistance.

As part of the Strategic Alliance for organizations, there is a real opportunity to quickly implement and master fundamentally new technologies.

The formation of strategic alliances creates the most favorable opportunity to ensure and develop competitive advantages.

Strategic alliances allow a certain extent to avoid the formation of trade associations, which are expensive and ineffective.

An important problem arising from the study of the process of formation and functioning of strategic alliances is to determine the balance of forces and power within the Alliance.

In modern conditions, the action of the entire spectrum of motivational factors and environmental conditions is pushing the organization to the need for the formation of strategic alliances. At the same time, the alliance participants should resolve the issue of the most acceptable and effective form. Experience in Western countries indicates that today the two most common forms of strategic alliances are known:

Alliances of equal partners (all participants in the alliance strong or all participants are weak);

Mixed alliances, or mixed-type alliances (a strong partner - a weak partner or a weak partner - a strong partner).

It is quite clear that each form of the strategic alliance has its own characteristics and features of functioning.

Alliances of equal partners are between equal partners in resource support, size, financial capabilities, etc.

The most typical example of the alliance of strong partners are GM-Toyota and ATT-Philips alliances. This kind of alliances concluded mainly to maintain or increase the competitiveness of partners. At the same time, within the framework of the alliance of equal partners, where the latter are equally strong, the definition of the rules of functioning and the nature of the distribution of benefits derived from its activities is extremely important.

As the experience of foreign countries shows, the alliances of this species are relatively stable and can actively function quite a long time. Such stability is mainly due to the equality of power and resources that partners have.

Strategic alliances of weak partners who do not have advanced technologies and do not have the necessary funds to develop and implement them, are created for the purpose of survival. As a rule, partners in such alliances are merged into one legal entity. In practice, the alliances of weak partners are the most impermanent and there are relatively short time. This is due to the fact that partners do not attach significant relationships within the alliance.

Mixed alliances, or mixed-type alliances form themselves between partners of various power. Currently, in foreign countries, such alliances arise, as a rule, in the following cases:

One partner takes a dominant position or controls access on a specific market segment;

One partner owns advanced technology or controls access to new types of technology.

The most characteristic examples of mixed alliances are IBM-Rolm and Olivetti-Line unions.

The most difficult task that should be solved in the formation of mixed alliances is to determine the degree of independence and autonomy of a weaker partner incoming to the alliance. At the same time, as evidenced by the practice of foreign countries, ultimately the functioning of most mixed alliances is completed by the absorption of a weaker partner. It should be noted that the mixed alliance may be relatively stable and functioning a long period of time only if it provides for a fair nature of the conversion with a weaker partner. The most significant example of an unfair and incorrect relationship with a stronger partner to the weak can serve as the relationship in the framework of the educational alliance of the large German company Thissen AG to the small American company Pevco.

Study of the life cycle of strategic alliances, i.e. the process of their formation, functioning and decay, is extremely important for the formation of future alliances. As foreign researchers believe, any strategic alliance in its development passes sequentially five stages:

The process of forming any strategic alliance begins with the ritual of "Clearing". At this stage, partners are studying each other, evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each other, establish the initial contacts between themselves and lead preliminary negotiations, critically evaluate future costs and benefits that will arise from the future alliance. The successful passage of this stage allows to largely minimize the costs associated with the formation of a strategic alliance, as well as reduce the likelihood of destruction at subsequent stages.

As the stage of launching the strategic alliance, partners involved in it are usually transmitted to the service stage. In the event that the Strategy Strategic Alliance Stage fails, partners may, bypassing the service stage, immediately go to the final stage.

The three possible options for the end of the existence of the Alliance are practically known.

1. Partners who have united in the framework of the Strategic Alliance for the implementation of a specific type of activity take a mutually agreed decision to further extend these relations, reorienting them to other market areas or areas of activity (for example, carrying out the combined marketing research). In this case, partners are studying the prospects for the further functioning of the Alliance, taking into account additional involvement of potential partners into it.

2. Partners who have previously united in a strategic alliance can choose friendly separation even if the operation of the alliance brought positive results. This is happening in cases where partners do not see the prospect of possible ways of their joint activities. Taking into account the plans and the prospects for the further development of each participant of the past alliance, it is possible to combine them in the future as part of its strategic alliance.

3. Partners in the Strategic Alliance terminate their relations due to serious disagreements and contradictions. In practice, this kind of breaking relationships within the framework of the alliance occurs, as a rule, is quite "noisy" and can lead to the collapse of the professional career of individual officials. Partners who have chosen this option to end the existence of a strategic alliance will continue to be very careful and pricious when solving the issue of their participation in any strategic alliance.

1. Means of placement: Basic classification of UNWTO

UNWTO- World Tourist Organization for the UN. Order of the Ministry of Sports, Tourism and Youth Policy of the Russian Federation (MINSportTurism of Russia) of January 25, 2011 N 35 "On approval of the procedure for classifying the objects of the tourist industry, including hotels and other means of accommodation, ski slopes, beaches"

The main objectives of the classification of the objects of the tourist industry in accordance with the specified classification systems are:

Providing the quality of tourist services that meet the requirements of the classification systems developed in accordance with international standards, recommendations of the World Tourism Organization with the United Nations (UNWTO) and existing foreign practice;

Providing consumers with necessary and reliable information providing a competent choice, on the compliance of the object of the Tourism Industry of the category provided for in classification systems;

Increasing the competitiveness of tourist services and attractiveness of the objects of the tourist industry aimed at increasing the tourist flow and the growth of income from inbound and domestic tourism;

strengthening the confidence of Russian and foreign consumers to the objectivity of the assessment of the category of objects of the tourist industry and the quality of tourist services.

Classification includes:

a) consideration by the organization that has passed accreditation in the prescribed manner (hereinafter - an accredited organization), applications and documents stipulated by the relevant classification system, and submitted by a legal entity or an individual entrepreneur who are owners of the Tourism Industry facility or operating its operation (hereinafter - the applicant), and making a decision on the classification;

b) assessment of the conformity of the Tourist Industry object with the requirements established for the category in the corresponding classification system;

c) registration of the results of the assessment of the objects of the tourist industry;

d) adopting an accredited organization based on the results of an assessment of the decision to assign the object of the Tourism Industry category provided for by the relevant classification system.

Placement enterprises can be classified for a number of features.

One of the signs implies the division of all means of placement by two main types: hotel type accommodation means and additional accommodation facilities.

Hotel enterprises classified depending on the location, the set of services provided and the level of the proposed service.

By location, you can allocate the following categories of hotels:

Hotels in the city center - usually high-rise buildings with a closed parking for cars in the hotel itself or next to it;

Roadside hotels, as a rule, small floors with open parking lots, restaurants, snacks, the presence of a minimum of means for meetings and meetings, in some cases, with swimming pool in the open air;

Hotels in city and airports are usually buildings of small and medium-sized parking lots for cars, leisure and entertainment facilities, banquet halls and meetings for meetings and conferences;

Floating hotels are plauscase, equipped with a hotel, to accommodate and rest tourists from the shores of the sea, rivers or lakes. The floating hotel is placed, usually, on the pier in a picturesque place, not far from tourist attractions. If necessary, the hotel can be departed along the water along with tourists to another parking lot;

Resort hotels are located outside urban areas, because they use natural and / or hand-created landmarks to attract tourists. Since such hotels serve mainly tourists who come to leisure and entertainment, for them a wide range of recreational facilities, food supply and beverages, banquet rooms and meetings for meetings are typical. Resort hotels are striving to have their own "image", and advertise themselves as specific recreation enterprises.

Federal Agency for Education

Belgorodstate Technological University

they VG Shukhova

Departmentstrategic management

by discipline: "Strategic Management»

On the topic:

Performed: Studentc.EK- 431.

Zubritskaya E.A.

Checked: Sazonov D.G.

Belgorod2006 .

Introduction .................................................................................... ..3.

History of the development of risk management ................................................ ..6

The concept and classification of strategic risks .............................. .... 13

Methods for assessing risks .................................................................................................................

Risk reduction measures ............................................................ .. ... ..22

Forecast of strategic risks in Russia .......................................... ..32

Conclusion .............................................................................. .... 39

Practical part ................................................................................... ... 41

List of used literature ................................................ ..48

Introduction

Each new enterprise or a new project inevitably faces its path with certain difficulties that threaten its existence. For the entrepreneur, it is very important to be able to foresee such difficulties and develop their overcoming strategies in advance. It is necessary to assess the degree of risk and identify those problems with which the business may encounter.

The success in the world of business decisive depends on the correctness and validity of the chosen entrepreneurial strategy. This should take into account the likelihood of critical situations. It would be highly naive to consider possible entrepreneurial activities without risk.

The threat can come from competitors, from their own miscalculations in the field of marketing and manufacturing policies, errors in the selection of leadership personnel. The danger can also be a technical process that is able to instantly "aged" any novelty.

For any business, it is important not to avoid risk in general, but an anticipation and reduction of it to a minimum level.

To reduce losses from possible miscalculations, special procedures are provided to help take into account uncertainty and risks at all stages of project implementation.

Knowing the types and significance of risks can affect them by reducing their impact on the effectiveness of the project. In other words, the following tasks are in front of the expert: to identify risks; risk assessment; determining the method of reducing risk at each stage of the project; Organization of risk management work.

The problem of risk management is very relevant. Activities of any organization are associated with the danger of emergence of unforeseen losses. That is why it is important for each company to provide a change in factors and conditions that can have a significant impact on its functioning.

Risk can be controlled. The most successful will be the activities of the firm that correctly calculated their capabilities, who chose the direction of activity with the optimal risk ratio and profitability.

As business vulnerability increases from financial risks, many companies recognize that the search for solutions of risk problems should be put on a professional basis. The manager must ensure the protection of all assets and profits of the firm from losses due to changes and fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, manage the percentage costs. Only a fairly experienced and qualified managers will cope with this difficult task. It seems to me that risk management should be one of the main activities of the modern manager.

The relevance of this work is that many conditions and factors affect the outcome of the decisions taken by people, the effect of some of them is very difficult to predict, many business decisions have to be taken in conditions of uncertainty. The risk is inherent in almost any field of human activity. Now more attention is paid to research, forecasting, risk analysis. The ability to foresee the consequences of certain actions are simply necessary for the normal functioning of organizations.

The purpose of this work is to determine the concept of risk management, its influence on the activities of risky enterprises, a description of the assessment methods, risk analysis and methods of its decline. In general, issues required for effective risk management will be considered.

In accordance with this purpose, the following tasks are set:

Consider the history of the risk management development;

Explore the concept and classification of strategic risks;

Consider risk assessment methods and risk reduction measures.

The information base for writing the work served: educational and periodic literature and Internet resources.

1. Risk Management Development History

Modern problems and trends in the development of risk management have recently attracted the attention of domestic researchers and entrepreneurs. Like their Western colleagues, Russian scientists, researchers and entrepreneurs face numerous risks associated with market changes in shares, currencies, commodities, etc. The liberalization of the national economy, as well as an increase in the degree of openness contributes to the tightening of competition, causing additional difficulties in economic entities.

The formation of risk management as a new paradigm of strategic management in modern business refers to the mid-90s. Advanced technology, globalization of world housekeeping, deregulation, restructuring, Internet, development of the derivatives market, information and technological development and other important factors affecting modern business, radically changed the approaches to risk management. Until the 90s, risk management was carried out only at the level of individuals.

Until recently, a highly specialized, fragmented approach to the risk management "Bottom up", which considered all the risks as certain non-interconnected elements was used. At the same time, their estimates had heterogeneous nature, which did not allow them to compare them with each other and analyze the results obtained.

Over the past year, the views and approaches on the established problems in the field of risk management have changed, which immediately led to the formation of a new risk management model, which comprehensively considers the risks of all departments and areas of the organization's activities. There was an opportunity to obtain comparable assessments for all types of risk due to the optimal approach between methods and models to determine specific types of risks.

Many experts believe that risk management should be an integral part of each successive enterprise, therefore, it should include:

identification, analysis and risk assessment;

development of a program of measures to eliminate the consequences of risky situations;

development of enterprise survival mechanisms;

preservation of the goals of the enterprise;

reduction of costs;

creating an insurance system;

forecasting the development of the enterprise, taking into account the possible change in the conjuncture and other events.

The leaders of most organizations traditionally consider risk management specialized and separate activities. For example, this concerns the management of insurance or currency risks. The new approach is the orientation of employees and managers of all levels to risk management. In tab. 1.1. The main features of the new and old risk management paradigms are presented. As shown in Table. 1.1., Earlier, enterprises used the risk management system, fragmented, episodically and in a limited direction. New trends in the economy make management move to a new paradigm, using risk management - integrated, continuously and expanded throughout the organization. It follows that the development of various risky situations in the present and the future should be monitored and tracked, in other words, the Organization should be implemented in the management of strategic risk management.

In our opinion, the term strategic risk management more accurately reflects new trends and trends in the modern economy, since the foreseen of the development of a situation makes it possible to avoid or reduce the risk of entering an indefinable condition, which can further affect its finances or reputation.

Strategic risk management is the art of risk management in an indefinite economic situation based on the prediction of risk and remediation.

Table 1. 1.

The main features of the new and old risk management paradigms

Consequently, strategic risk management is a targeted search and work to reduce the degree of risk, which is focused on obtaining and increasing profits in an indefinite economic situation. The ultimate goal is to obtain maximum profits with an optimal ratio for a profit and risk entrepreneur.

Strategic risk management forms the basis and integrate the risk management process as a whole. The scheme of this process is shown in Figure 1.1.

Fig. 1.1. Strategic risk management process at the enterprise

Initially, it is necessary to develop a risk policy in the enterprise. This is the advantage of the company's goals and risk management purposes. And, as you know, the risk management objectives are directly related to the goals of the enterprise. The production and economic purposes can be attributed (as the objectives of the technology, market goals, the purpose of the product, the purpose of quality), as well as financial goals (accrual of capital interest, efficiency).

The risk management objectives in particular are:

ensuring the safety of the enterprise's goals of an additional cost-oriented chance of risk management;

ensuring the safety of the company's success;

reducing risk costs.

After establishing risk management purposes, the enterprise's management should become the highest instance in the risk management strategy.

The purpose of strategic risk management is the risk awareness as an element of the culture of the enterprise. For the management of the enterprise, it is necessary to realize: "What can be easily described on a sheet of paper can be difficult to be created in the complex context of the enterprise." Therefore, it is necessary to carefully approach the planning of complex systems at the enterprise, in order to comply with the response efficiency to the upcoming risky situations.

Operational risk management contains the process of systematic and current analysis of the risk of enterprise and livelihoods. However, with the cost-oriented risk management, it is necessary to take into account along with the risk component also chances. The goal should be the optimization of the risk profile and the chance in the enterprise. It is necessary to achieve the optimal possible reliability (safety) of the enterprise, and not as possible.

Next, the risks of the enterprise are determined and analyzed. After analysis, it is necessary to obtain the highest possible information about the stages of growth and trends in the development of the risk situation in the enterprise. The informational task is the hardest phase in the risk management process and at the same time one of the final stages of risk management. It is necessary to organize and establish a systematic, oriented risk management process, the image of the actions of all employees of the enterprise.

A feature of the "risky situations" is currently the fact that a significant place should be given to economic and mathematical methods that allow you to quantify qualitative factors in contrast to verbal estimates. Economic and mathematical methods and models make it possible to imitate economic situations and give an assessment of the consequences when choosing one or another decision, going around without expensive experiments. These include: game theory; imitation methods and models; theory of graphs; A special place is currently being discharged and econometric methods. In the composition of analytical calculations, testers of factor analysis, balanced methods, probability theory in combination with other methods and others are also involved.

The risk and uncertainty of the outcomes of certain "risky situations" depend on the accidental state of the environment or the choice of the appearance of competitors, or the probabilistic nature of the appearance of the desired result on possible strategies. Depending on the script developed for the entrepreneur, it is important to know the criteria for which you can get optimistic pessimistic, realistic results. It follows that the risk does not occur if there are no simultaneous conditions in the situation:

uncertainty;

there is no choice alternative;

the outcome of the selected solution is not viewed.

Modern computer programs allow you to solve the problems, using imitation methods and models. They provide ample opportunities for statistical and economic and mathematical modeling by analyzing econometric and temporal sequences, allowing accurate risks to accurately. An important feature of such programs is to assess the risk factors with a minimum amount of available data. Imitation models allow you to simulate and predict the risk distribution, which gives operational space to analyze and develop possible bottlenecks for the purpose of their coverage. In addition, such programs have a simple, convenient and understandable interface. Consequently, it leads to an improvement in decision-making process, since in this case all employees have a common strategic idea of \u200b\u200brisks, and are not lost view of the items. At the same time, heuristic methods are played with a decisive role using expert assessments.

The economic situation in Russia forces Russian companies to enter international markets and at the same time Western companies seek to settle in our market. All this is a reason to change attitudes towards enterprise management methods. In addition, Russia has planned a course as soon as possible and without complications to join the World Trade Organization - WTO (WTO). Therefore, enterprises who wish to effectively develop their activities not only in Russia, but also abroad should follow the new rules of the game and to keep track of the strategic aspects of the risk management development as a new paradigm. This is especially true for the Kaliningrad region - a Russian enclave located in the center of Europe, which has close relationships with the European Union's business environment.

2. Concept and K.ladification of strategic risks

The risk is a complex phenomenon having a plurality of inconsistent, and sometimes opposite bases and prerequisites. This causes the possibility of the existence of several definitions of risk concepts from different points of view.

Here are just a few of them:

The risk is a potential, numerically measurable loss, and under the concept of risk it is understood as the uncertainty associated with the possibility of occurrence during the implementation of the project of adverse situations and consequences;

The risk is the likelihood of losses, losses, not allowed planned income, profits;

The risk is the uncertainty of our financial results in the future.

As a classification feature, strategic risks chosen the main spheres of the state (Table 2): political, economic, social, natural and technogenic, scientific and technical. Currently, domestic scientists have implemented preliminary research on the allocation and evaluation of the importance of strategic risks to ensure the national security of Russia in each of the spheres of the state.

Strategic risks in the political sphere

In Russia in the twentieth century Political risks acquired a strategic nature during periods of cardinal shifts of the foundations of the state system, the forms of property and the nature of the economy. In theory of security, these periods can be characterized by the occurrence of instability and bifurcations in the political sphere.

Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences are allocated strategic risks in the political sphere, which are expressed in the degree of importance to ensure the national security and sustainable development of Russia for the long-term perspective.

The main ones are (in brackets - the significance of risk):

strengthening the position of the United States in the modern world and their desire for dictate (1.00);

increasing the relics of China (0.61);

reducing the country's defense capability and combat capability of the Armed Forces (0.59);

the possibility of domestic interethnic and interfaith conflicts (0.55);

increasing military threat from the United States and NATO (0.44);

the possibility of regional and local military conflicts (0.40);

formation of a new center of militant fundamentalism south of the borders of Russia (0.34);

increasing threats to international terrorism (0.27);

the possibility of exacerbation of the interparty struggle

political extremism (0.13).

Strategic risks in the economic sphere

Strategic risks in the economic sphere with varying degrees of depth and detail were subjected and being analyzed for many decades in our country and in the world. At the same time, the analysis and forecasts of economic development focuses, as a rule, was paid to trend patterns and the main average of the state of the economy: profits, GDP, revenue and expenditure parts of the budget, the level of inflation, the fare of natural monopolies, the national currency rate. These economic parameters are trying to manage the Government of the Russian Federation.

Domestic scientists and experts allocate the following main risks for Russia in the economic sphere (in brackets - the significance of risk):

an inertial choice of priorities and proportions of the development of the economy, strengthening the structural deformation of the economy of the country (1.00);

criminalization of the economy and leakage of capital from the country (0.56);

reducing production potential and low investment activity (0.42);

the possibility of an energy crisis (0.32);

exceeding the openness of the national economy in international globalization (0.29);

unfavorable economic conjuncture, decline in world energy prices (0.17);

external debt that creates a danger of exacerbation of the financial crisis (0.15);

low product competitiveness (0.12);

reduction of agricultural production, loss of food independence (0.11).

Strategic risks in the social sphere

The main purpose of managing strategic risks in the social sphere is to enter the trajectory of evolutionary and projected development while maintaining the priority of ensuring national security. At this stage of stabilization development, the structure of strategic risks will change, the probabilities of developing adverse social crises will decline, the horizon of forecasting increases, and the damage to decline.

The main risks for modern Russia in the social sphere are (in brackets - the significance of risk):

corruption, criminalization and incompetence of power structures, reduce confidence in power (1.00);

reducing the standard of living and antagonization of the social structure (0.76);

spiritual crisis in society (0.29);

unevenness of the socio-economic development of regions of the country (0.27);

crime growth (0.23);

growth of alcoholism and drug addiction (0.19);

aggravation of the demographic situation in the country (0.18);

the possibility of biological and social emergencies (0.08).

Strategic risks in the scientific and technical sphere

Further development of all areas of Russia's life should be based on a direct analysis of strategic risks in the scientific and technical sphere, because It determines the economic and export potential of the country, creates the scientific basis of the material production and the real sector of the economy.

The main risks in the scientific and technical sphere are (in brackets - the significance of risk):

internal choice of scientific and technical policy priorities (1.00);

reducing scientific and technical and innovative potentials: brain leakage, personnel aging, education system crisis (0.70);

growth of information vulnerability of all spheres of the Company's life (0.33);

increasing the threat of unauthorized use of modern technologies (0.17);

uncertainty risks of future technologies (communication, information, gene, space, etc.) (0.10).

Strategic risks in natural and man-made spheres

These risks are currently becoming a strategic nature in connection with the global change in the habitat, the development of the technosphere and the increasing scale of natural disasters.

The main risks for Russia in these areas are:

risks of the development of dangerous natural phenomena (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, flooding, karst, forest fires, etc.) (the significance of the risk of 1.00);

risks of accidents and disasters on potentially dangerous objects (0.94);

environmental pollution (0.43);

risks associated with global climate change, environmental degradation, planetary risks (0.24);

exhaustion of natural and biological resources (0.15).

3. Risk assessment methods

The risk of an entrepreneur is quantitatively characterized by a subjective assessment of the expected value of the maximum and minimum income or loss from capital investment. Usually, the larger the range between the maximum and minimum income (loss) with an equal choice of their preparation, the higher the risk. The risk of an entrepreneur is forced due to the uncertainty of the economic situation, the unknown conditions of the political and economic situation and the prospects for changing these conditions. The greater the uncertainty of the economic situation when making a decision, the higher the risk.

The risk to which the enterprise is subjected is the likely threat of ruining or carrying such financial losses that can stop the whole thing. Since the probability of failure is always present, the question arises about the risk reduction methods. To answer this question, it is necessary to quantify the risk, which will allow you to compare the size of the risk of various solutions and choose from them that most of all meets the risk strategy selected by the enterprise.

American expert B. Berlimer proposed to use some assumptions when analyzing:

Risk losses are independent of each other.

The loss in one direction of activity does not necessarily increase the likelihood of loss other than (with the exception of force majeure).

the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.

Two types of analysis can be distinguished - quantitative and high-quality.

Qualitative analysis allows you to determine factors and potential risk areas, identify it possible. Quantitative analysis is aimed at quantifying risks, analyze their analysis and comparison. With a quantitative risk analysis, a statistical method is used, an analysis of the costs of costs, methods of expert assessments, analogies, valuation of solvency and financial stability.

The method of expert assessments is based on the generalization of the opinions of expert experts on risk probabilities. Intuitive characteristics based on the knowledge and experience of each expert are taken into account. Expert methods allow you to quickly and without large temporary and labor costs to obtain the information necessary to generate a management solution.

The analogy method is usually used when analyzing the risks of the new project. The project is considered as a "alive" body having certain stages of development. The project life cycle consists of a stage of development, a stage of deriving to the market, stage of growth, a stage of maturity and a stage of decline. Studying the life cycle of the project, you can get information about each stage of the project, to allocate the causes of undesirable consequences, assess the degree of risk. However, in practice it is quite difficult to collect relevant information.

The method of assessing the solvency and financial sustainability of the enterprise makes it possible to provide for the likelihood of bankruptcy. Annual accounting reporting is analyzed.

You can estimate the likelihood of an insolvency of the enterprise. The main criteria for insolvency are the current liquidity ratio, the provision of own means and the coefficient of solvency recovery.

The method of expediency of costs allows you to determine the lower limit size of the output, at which the profit is zero. Product production in volumes less critical brings only losses. The critical volume of production should be assessed in reducing the production of products caused by the fall in demand, reducing the supply of materials and components, replacing products to a new and other reasons.

To carry out appropriate calculations, all costs of production and sales are divided into variables (materials, components, tools, wages, transportation costs, etc.) and permanent (depreciation deductions, managerial expenses, rent, interest for credit and etc.)

The critical volume of production can be represented as:

About kr \u003d s post / (c - z trans)

where OCD is a critical volume of production, C is the price of a unit of products, 3 posts - constant costs, 3 per - variable costs.

The greater the difference between the actual production volume and critical, the higher the financial stability.

Any change in the volume of production or level of sales has a significant impact on the profit (the effect of production leverage). Production Leverge shows the degree of influence of permanent costs (losses) with changes in production.

The statistical method is to study the statistics of losses and profits that took place in a given or similar enterprise, in order to determine the likelihood of an event, the establishment of risk. The degree of risk is measured by the average expected value and the variance of a possible result.

In cases where the information is limited, analytical methods are used for quantitative risk analysis, or standard probability distribution functions, such as normal distribution, or Gauss distribution, indicative (exponential) probability distribution, which is quite widely used in reliability calculations, as well as the distribution of Poisson, which is often used in the theory of mass service.

In foreign practice as a method of quantitative determination of the risk of capital investment, it is proposed to use a tree of probabilities.

This method allows you to accurately determine the likely future de-tender flow of an investment project in their connection with the results of previous time periods. If the project of attachments of Ka-feed is acceptable in the first period of time, it can also be acceptable in subsequent periods of time.

If it is assumed that cash flows in different periods of time are independent of each other, then it is necessary to determine the likely distribution of measurement results for each period of time.

In the case when the relationship between cash flows in different periods of time exists, it is necessary to accept this dependence and based on it to present future events as they can occur.

4. Risk reduction methods.

General in business practice are three basic risk reduction principles:

do not risk more than any equity allow;

do not forget about the consequences of risk;

do not risk many for the sake of small.

The acquisition of reliable and sufficient information is played by the main role as it helps to make the right decision on the actions under risk. Information about the likelihood of a particular insurance event is very important, the value of demand for goods, capital, financial sustainability and solvency of its competitors, customers. Many types of information constitute a subject of commercial secrecy and can be one of the types of intellectual property, which means to be made as a contribution to the share capital of the joint-stock company or partnership. The presence of sufficient and reliable business information from the financial manager allows him to quickly accept financial and commercial decisions, has a significant impact on the correctness of these decisions. This leads to a decrease in losses and increasing profits.

Before deciding on the risk of capital investment, it is necessary to determine the maximum amount of loss on this risk, to compare it with the amount of capital of the capital, compare it with all its own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The volume of loss from capital investment can be equal to the volume of this capital, to be less than it or more.

As a risk management body, a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, conducting venture and portfolio investments (that is, risky investments in accordance with the current legislation and the charter of the economic entity), developing a risk investment program. Its functions should include:

collection, analysis, processing and storage of environmental information.

determining the degree and cost of risks.

development of strategies and receptions of management, risk-solving programs and the organization of its implementation, control and analysis of results.

implementation of insurance activities.

the maintenance of relevant accounting, statistical and operational reports on risk investment of capital.

When developing a strategy from possible options for risky investments of capital, a variant that gives the greatest efficiency of the result with a minimum or acceptable risk for an investor, in which the probabilities of winning and losing for the same risk investment of capital have the smallest gap. Expected values \u200b\u200bof winnings and risk are evaluated, and the decision is made to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid big risk. There are several ways to choose a solution option, provided that:

the probabilities of possible economic situations are known. The average expected value of the norm arrived on the embedded capital for each embodiment and the option with the highest rate of profit is selected.

the probabilities of possible business situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values. By expert evaluation, the probability of the terms of the economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of arrived on invested capital is calculated.

the probabilities of possible business situations are unknown, but are known the main directions for assessing the results of capital investment. Three directions for estimating the results of capital investment: the choice of the maximum result from the minimum risk; the choice of minimal risk of maximum risks; The choice of the average value of the result.

The entrepreneur in the course of his actions in the market is obliged to choose a strategy that would allow him to reduce the degree of risk. The mathematical apparatus for choosing a strategy in conflict situations gives the theory of games that allows an entrepreneur or manager to better understand the competitive environment and minimize the degree of risk. Analysis using the methods of game theory prompts the entrepreneur to consider all possible alternatives to both their actions and the strategies of partners, competitors. The theory of games helps to solve many economic problems associated with the choice, the definition of the best position subordinate to only some restrictions arising from the conditions of the problem itself. Consequently, the risk has a mathematically pronounced probability of a loss that relies on statistical data and can be calculated with a fairly high degree of accuracy.

To estimate the likelihood of certain losses due to the development of events on an unforeseen option, you should first of all know all kinds of losses related to entrepreneurship, and be able to calculate them in advance or measure as probable forecast values. Evaluate each of the types of losses in the quantitative measurement and to reduce them together, it is not always possible to do. Random development of events affecting the course and results of entrepreneurship is able to give not only losses in the form of increased costs of resources and reducing the final result. It can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resources and reducing the cost of another species, along with increased costs of some resources, the savings of others may be observed. When determining the total possible losses, it is necessary to deduct from the calculated loss accompanying their winnings.

In business, there are losses for material, labor, financial, time loss, special types of losses.

Material losses are manifested in an unforeseen project of additional costs or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, etc. Material losses are measured in the same units in which the amount of this type of material resources is measured (in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.).

The losses in the physical dimension are often translated into the value measurement by multiplying the unit of the corresponding material resource. Having an assessment of the likely losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, you can minimize them, which is impossible in the physical dimension (it is impossible to add meters and kilograms, etc.).

Labor losses - loss of working time caused by unforeseen circumstances. Labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days or just hours of working time. Translation of labor losses in value, monetary expression is carried out by multiplying labor for the cost of one hour.

Financial losses are direct cash damage associated with unforeseen payments paid fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of cash and securities. In addition, financial losses can be in case of lacking or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, during the non-return of debts, unpaid the buyer of products supplied to it, decreasing revenues due to lower prices for products and services, inflation growth. There are temporary financial losses due to freezing accounts, late issuance of funds, deferred debt payment.

Time loss exist when the process of entrepreneurial activity goes slower than was scheduled. Evaluation of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining a scheduled result. To transfer an assessment of time loss in value measurement, it is necessary to establish which loss of income, profits from entrepreneurship are able to lead random time loss.

Special types of losses occur in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as as a result of other adverse social and moral and psychological consequences. Special loss types are difficult to determine in quantitative and value terms.

It is necessary to take into account only random losses that are not directly calculating, direct forecasting and therefore not taken into account in the entrepreneurial project. If the losses can be foreseen in advance, they should not be considered as losses, but as inevitable expenses. Therefore, the foresight of price, taxes, their change in the course of economic activity, the entrepreneur must take into account in the business plan. Before assessing the risk due to the action of purely random factors, it is extremely desirable to separate the systematic component of losses from random.

It is almost impossible to completely avoid risk, but, knowing the source of losses, you can reduce their threat, reduce the effect of adverse factors.

Losses in the production business: Reducing the planned volumes of production and sale of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime, or under-use production capacity, loss of working time, lack of necessary quantity of materials, an increased percentage of marriage leads to a shortage of planned revenue. Probable losses in this case in value terms are determined by the work of a likely total decrease in the volume of output and the price of the sale of products. The decline in prices on which it is planned to implement products, due to insufficient quality, unfavorable change in market conditions, the fall in demand, price inflation leads to the likely losses determined by the product of a likely reduction of the price of a unit of products to the total amount of products planned to produce and sell products.

There are also losses related to increased material costs associated with overruns of materials, raw materials, fuels, energy. High transportation costs, trading costs, overrun the planned value of the wage fund (due to exceeding the calculated number or payout to higher wages to employees), the change in taxes into an unfavorable party for an entrepreneur also has a negative impact on the functioning of the company.

Losses in commercial entrepreneurship: losses caused by an increase in the purchase price of the goods in the project process are determined by the product of the procurement of goods in physical dimension on a likely increase in purchasing price. An unforeseen reduction in the volume of purchases in comparison with the outlined causes a decrease in sales volume. Importance and loss of goods in the process of transportation and storage, loss of consumer value of goods, leading to a decrease in its cost. Improving costs due to unforeseen deductions, fines. Reducing the price of the sale of goods, compared with the project, is the loss of the amount of implementation multiplied by the price reduction.

Losses in financial entrepreneurship. Losses of commercial entrepreneurship, inherent and financial entrepreneurship. But when evaluating financial risks, such specific factors such as the insolvency of the financial transaction agents, a change in currency exchange rate, securities, restrictions on monetary and cash operations, etc.

Financial risk is very important. The higher the ratio of borrowed funds to their own, the more the enterprise depends on creditors, the more serious and the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, the tightening of the loan conditions should usually entail difficulties and even stop production due to lack of raw materials, materials, etc.

The readiness of the manager to take risks is usually formed under the influence of the results of the practical implementation of past similar solutions adopted in uncertainty. The losses incurred dictate the choice of cautious politics, successfully encourages risk. Most people prefer malicious options. The attitude to risk depends largely on the value of the capital, which the entrepreneur has.

During the assessment of alternative solutions, the manager has to predict possible results. At the same time, the decision is made in conditions when the head can accurately appreciate the results of each of the alternative solutions. An example is the investment in deposit certificates and in government bonds, when there is a state guarantee and it is just known that the invested funds will be revealed in the percentage.

If the factors requiring analysis and accounting are very complex, and there is no reliable or sufficient information about them, then the likelihood of this or that result cannot be predicted more or less. Uncertainty is characteristic of many decisions taken in rapidly changing circumstances. In this case, the manager will try to get additional information, once again analyze the problem and, consequently, take into account its novelty and complexity, combining information and analysis results with accumulated experience. Sometimes it is useful to attract specialists to this work to compile expert assessments. It is also possible to act in accordance with the past experience and intuition, especially if there is no time to collect additional information, or if the costs of it are very high.

The main risk reduction techniques:

Diversification is the process of distributing invested funds between various objects of capital investment, directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income. Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk when distributing capital between a variety of activities. Enterprise, carrying losses in one type of activity, can profit due to another field of activity. Diversification allows you to increase the sustainability of the enterprise to changes in the entrepreneurial environment.

Risk distribution involves risk separation between project participants. The increase in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, the high dynamism of the external environment increases the risk of the project. The method of risk separation is factoring operations. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is mainly due to the need for individual suppliers in the accelerated receipt of payments, which are doubtful. As a rule, in these situations there is a risk of non-payment of claims payer at all. The bank, bought, such claims from the supplier in this case may incur damages. Factoring operations refer to increased risk operations. The amount of commission depends on the degree of risk (from the level of "doubt" of the repurchased debt) and on the duration of the contractual deferment. In some cases, it comes to 20% of the amount of payment.

Acquisition of additional information about choosing and results. More complete information allows you to make an accurate forecast and reduce the risk, which makes it very valuable. The cost of complete information is calculated as the difference between the expected cost of any event (the acquisition project), when there is full information, and the expected cost when information is incomplete.

Limiting is the establishment of maximum amounts of expenses, sales, loan, amount of capital investment. It is used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, business entities for the sale of goods on credit, providing loans, determining the amounts of capital investment, etc.

Reservation is the establishment of the ratio between the potential risks and the size of the costs necessary to overcome the consequences of these risks. This method of risk reduction is commonly used when performing various projects. In general, the reserve is used to finance additional work, compensation for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overhead costs and other costs arising in the project implementation process.

Operations Swap (agreement on the exchange of assets and liabilities on similar assets or liabilities in order to extend or reduce maturity time or in order to increase or reduce interest rates in order to maximize income or minimize financing costs).

Self-insurance. The creation of natural and cash insurance funds directly in business entities, especially those whose activities are at risk. The main task of self-insurance is to prompt overcoming the temporary difficulties of financial and commercial activities.

Insurance - Protection of property interests of economic entities and citizens when the occurrence of certain events (insurance cases) through cash funds generated from insurance premiums paid by them, that is, the transfer of certain risks of the insurance company.

5. Forecast of Russia's strategic risks

The preliminary forecast of the factors of strategic risks for the future from 5 to 20 years gives information for a generalized qualitative assessment of the potential possibility of strategic risks, and also allows preliminary conclusions about the mechanisms of management of them (Fig. 5.1-5.5).

Fig. 5.1. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the economic sphere.

Fig. 5.2. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the political sphere.

Fig. 5.3. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the social sphere.

Fig. 5.4. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the scientific and technical sphere.

Fig. 5.5. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the natural and technological sphere.

First of all, we note that according to experts, the importance of the economic sphere of strategic risks remains the most essential for all forecasting horizons. Essentially, this factor is a system-forming and affecting the most spheres of the life of the state. The consequence of this is the conclusion about the need for an extremely deep analysis of existing and promising priorities, including a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the implementation of various economic development scenarios for different forecasting horizens. It should be noted that the qualitative ranking of the relative significance of the areas considered, strategic risks remain the same for different temporary prospects, i.e. Located in the following sequence: Economic, political, social, scientific and technical, natural and technogenic spheres. A certain dynamics of relative significance occurs mainly within each listed group.

If we consider the forecast for the next perspective (up to 5 years), we can talk about the likely appearance of strategic risks for several reasons: exemption of almost all critical values \u200b\u200bof national security indicators; A fairly wide range of strategic risk factors having a high degree of implementation; The strong mutual influence of factors and the potential possibility of their synergistic gain.

In the economic sphere, the emergence of strategic risks is associated with an irrational choice of priorities, an increase in criminalization and capital leakage abroad, a decrease in production potential and the possibility of an energy crisis. The last two components relate to the scientific and technical factors of strategic risks - a decrease in innovative and scientific potential. In the political sphere, the factor of external threats is unambiguously associated with the strengthening of the power and dictate of the United States, which, in particular, can strengthen interethnic and regional conflicts. Special attention requires the problem of terrorism, having both internal and external sources.

The joint influence of economic and political threats in the near future can increase the frequency and scope of the manifestation of social risks. The high level of criminalization of the economy and the infidel legislative framework of the transition period will contribute to the high level of corruption. Errors in the choice of priorities for the development of the economy, uneven development of regions, insufficient attention to the spiritual development of society in previous years with a high probability will strengthen the spiritual crisis (especially in a youth environment), exacerbate the problem of alcohol and drug consumption.

Despite the fact that natural-technogenic risks closure a list of relative importance, their continuous presence in the forecasts allows us to talk about the systemic, basic nature of these factors. Unfortunately, natural extreme phenomena are weakly manageable not only in our country, but also abroad. This refers to the difficulties of reliable prediction, primarily geological, meteorological and a number of complex natural risks. In this regard, special attention should be paid to the revision of the construction norms and, especially, the rules for the placement of buildings and engineering structures in zones subject to these risks. Technogenic risks are more manageable, however, taking into account the process of aging of the main equipment and reducing the professional level of personnel in the coming years, an increase in frequency and scope of the consequences of accidents and disasters on potentially dangerous facilities should be expected. One of the ways to control the risk in the natural and technological sphere can be the procedure for passporting security (integrated risk) in the territory of regional and municipalities. The main purpose of such certification, except for the collection of objective information, should consist in strengthening the interest of regional bodies in conducting preventive measures and strengthen their responsibility for the defendant measures.

Taking into account the features of these factors of strategic risks, special attention should be paid to the development of the concept of economic management of risks, especially in terms of creating a national system for compensation for emergency situations in the natural and technological sphere. As a first step, in particular, a newly adopted concept of insurance in the Russian Federation may be considered, in which special attention is paid to the development of mandatory types of natural risks in combination with the creation of centralized warranty funds.

For a long time, up to 10 years old, the threats caused by the excessive openness of the Russian economy and the growth of the sensitivity of various sectors of the country's economy to the fluctuations in the global conjuncture are added above. To increase sustainability, appropriate measures (legislative, organizational, market) should be developed. Against the background of adaptation to global economic processes, a balanced system of protecting domestic producers should continue to operate. Otherwise, the listed threats may have not only economic consequences, but also to promote the strengthening of social tensions. In the economic sphere, the likelihood and potential extent of the energy crisis (regional, interregional, national) may increase. Despite the significant supply of energy resources, the backlog in the pace of reforming the basic energy sectors, the low level of innovative processes and a number of other factors can establish a threat to energy security at the national level.

For the medium-term forecasting, the emergence of political extremism as a significant factor is characterized, but it can only be achieved in combination with the strengthening of social and economic threats.

Analysis of forecasts for individual components of strategic risks allows us to conclude that the prospect of the prospect of the prospect of strategic risks in the Asian part of Russia is very likely. Currently, the deployment of a number of large-scale projects in Siberia and the Far East (especially in the field of energy) is predicted, the results of the implementation of which can significantly affect not only the internal socio-economic atmosphere, but also cause a change in the conjuncture in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictable strengthening of the influence of the United States and China over the next 20 years may cause political and economic counteraction of project implementation. The emergence of local foci of interethnic conflicts, but a particular concern is the problem of terrorism, since new industrial facilities can become sources of increased interest on the part of the relevant groups, especially if Russia will even indirectly support international anti-terrorism.

The social aspect of strategic risks is potentially associated with a further increase in antagonism between the low and highly paid part of the population, the uneven social development of the regions, the exacerbation of the demographic situation, the increase in crime, the emergence of tensions between representatives of different sectors of the economy. If at present the most obvious unevenness of the economic development of the regions is reflected in comparing the European and Asian parts of Russia, then in ten years it may increase unevenness within the Asian regions of the country. The implementation of large-scale projects is likely to initiate migration processes that can also become a source of additional social conflicts.

For a long-term perspective (up to 20 years), the forecast of strategic risks, naturally, is the most schematic. For this horizon of forecasting, it is about the same list of possible threats, but the power of their potential manifestation may decrease somewhat. Depending on the success and effectiveness of anti-terrorism actions, or enhanced as the risk of large-scale terrorist actions and the possibility of the strong center of fundamentalism in Asia.

Even for a remote perspective in the forecasts of the social component of strategic risk, the problem of the growth of crime, alcoholism and drug addiction remains. This suggests that currently or projected to be predicted, taking into account the existing knowledge of the mechanisms for managing these risks, is clearly not enough and they are ineffective.

Conclusion

A person is constantly faced with risk. Often, without having complete information, we have to make a choice, which, unfortunately, is not always correct. Any entrepreneur always operates at its own risk, the further activities of the organization will depend on this person, from its foresight and knowledge.

Risk management is one of the components of the corporate production process, so it must be integrated into this process, should have its own strategy, tactics, operational implementation. At the same time, it is important not only to manage risks, but also periodically revise the activities and means of such management.

When choosing a specific means of risk permission, it should be proceeding from the following principles: it is impossible to risk more than this can afford equity; It is impossible to risk many for the sake of small; It should be predicted by the effects of risk. The application in the practice of these principles means that it is necessary to calculate the maximum possible loss in this type of risk, to compare it with the capital volume of the enterprise subjected to this risk, and then compare the entire possible loss with the total amount of own financial resources. And only making the last step to determine whether this risk will lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise. Thus, in managing financial risks and risks, all functions of the financial management cycle are generally involved: from planning to control.

An important aspect of risk problem is the organizational moments of risk management. Each enterprise must exist a risk management body with certain functional duties and necessary material, financial, labor and information resources. The high efficiency of resource spending when performing the risk management program can be provided only within the framework of a systematic approach, which is the most common risk management.

In this paper, the types of strategic risks, risk management, the basic methods of assessing and analyzing risks, the forecast of strategic risks - is, without which it is impossible to effectively manage risk. The main complexity of risk management problems is that there are no "ready-made" recipes. Every question requiring consideration in the enterprise needs its own unique approach.

Practical part

Theoretical Basics Matrix BKG

There are many ways to strategic analysis of the business portfolio of the company with a common feature of which is the study of the structures of the industries. One of them was developed by the Boston Consulting Group and was the first and most actual reflecting technique for planning a portfolio of the company.

The Matrix of the Boston Consulting Group (BKG) is an important tool for carrying out assortment analysis, assessing market prospects of goods, the development of effective sales policy, the formation of an optimal commodity portfolio of the company. The following assumptions are based on this matrix: the greater the growth rate, the greater the possibility of development; The larger the market share, the stronger the position of the organization in a competitive struggle.

A large market share makes it possible to get a big profit and have a more strong position in the competitive struggle. In fig. 1. The BKG matrix is \u200b\u200bgiven, in this embodiment using the indicators of the relative market share (x axis) and the relative market growth rate (Y axis). Other options also use the absolute values \u200b\u200bof these indicators; For a market share indicator, the logarithmic scale is possible.

Relativity means dividing estimated indicators for specific products on their greatest importance for its products or products of competitors; Thus, the range of changes in the relative indicators lies in the range from 0 to 1. For a market share in this case, the reverse scale is used, i.e. In the matrix it changes ranging from 1 to 0, although in some cases the direct scale can also be used. The growth rate of the market is determined for some time interval, let's say for the year.

The intersection of these two coordinates forms four quadrant. If products are characterized by high values \u200b\u200bof both indicators, they are called "stars", they should be maintained and strengthened. "Stars" - the most promising, developing type of goods, seeks to increase the share in the commodity portfolio of the company, is at the stage of growth. The expansion of the production of this product goes at the expense of profits from its sales. True, the "stars" has one disadvantage: since the market is developing with high rates, then the "stars" require high investments, thus "acroccing" money earned by them. If the products are characterized by a high value of x and low - y, then they are called "milk cows" and are generators of the organization's funds, since it is not necessary to invest in the development of the product and market (the market is not growing or grows slightly), the goods have a maximum share in Commodity portfolio of the company. Revenue from the implementation of this product can be spent on financing the production and development of other goods. The disadvantage is that there is no future behind them. With a low value of x and high - y products are called "hard children" ("wild cats", "question marks"), they must be specifically studied to establish, they will not be able to turn into "stars" with well-known investments. When both the X and the indicator Y have low values, the products are called "dogs" ("losers", "dogs"), bringing or small profit, or small losses; From them it is necessary to get rid of them if there are no good reasons for their preservation (the possible resumption of demand belongs to socially significant products, etc.).

Usually, when using the BKG matrix, the third figure is used, the value of which is proportional to the radius of the circle, spent around the point characterizing the position of the product in the matrix. As such an indicator, in most cases the sales volume or profit is used.

Successful products are usually. They begin their life on the market as "difficult children", then they go to the "stars", as demand is satisfied with the "dairy cows" and finish their market life as "losers".

The Matrix of BKG, in addition to the level of individual products, is applied at the level of the organization as a whole. In this case, non-individual products are applied to the matrix, but data on the results of competitors' organizations. There are cases of using the BKG matrix when carrying out intercountry comparisons. Then the data characterizing, say, sales of steel on world markets are placed in the matrix.

Along with clarity and apparent ease of use, the BKG matrix has certain disadvantages. The first group of disadvantages is not fundamental and can be overcome. Here, first of all, it should be noted the difficulties of collecting data on the market share and market growth rates. To overcome this shortage, high-quality scales that use such graduations can be used as: more, less, equal, etc. It should be noted that the BKG matrix gives a statistical picture of the position of the company, business species on the market, on the basis of which it is impossible to make forecast estimates of the type: "And where will the studied products be located on the matrix field?" This disadvantage can be reduced by conducting repeated measurements at certain time intervals and fixing the direction of movement along the field of the matrix of individual products. Such information already has a certain projected value.

The principal flaws of the BKG matrix are primarily the following. It does not take into account the interdependence (synergistic effect) of certain types of business: if such a dependence exists, this matrix gives distorted results.

It should be noted that the assessment of the attractiveness of the market is only in terms of the rate of change in the volume of sale, and the strength of the business position only in terms of the market share is a strong simplification. Rather, for each this area, a multicriterial assessment should be carried out, which is done when using the General Electric (GE) matrix.

The characteristic of the product portfolio of the company "Diana" is given in the table:

It is necessary using the Boston Consulting Group (BKG) matrix to form a product strategy of the enterprise.

Calculate the initial data for the construction of the BKG matrix:

Total volume \u003d 10412

When constructing a BKG matrix as a scale of estimating individual types of products, an average growth rate of the growth rate is used \u003d 1.05 and the average value of the relative market share \u003d 16. The diameter of the circle for the product image is selected in proportion to the share of production volume in the total volume of implementation.

Build on the basis of the source data of the BKG matrix:

Based on the analysis of the BKG matrix, it is necessary to form a product strategy of the enterprise. The product strategy can be submitted in the table:

With the help of the BKG matrix, the company forms the composition of its portfolio (that is, it determines the combinations of capital investments in various industries, various business units). In this case, the most acceptable option of the strategy within the framework of the BKG matrix is \u200b\u200bthe growth and increase in market share, that is, the translation of the first and fourth goods in the square of "wild cats" and the further transformation of them into the "Stars", and the funds for the implementation of these events will receive a firm for Revenue account from the implementation of the "dairy cow" (second, seventh and fifth goods).

Bibliography

1. Akimov V.A., Porfiryev B.N., Radaev N.N. Methodical apparatus of assessment and forecast of strategic risks / risk management. 2002.

2. Akimov V.A., Head of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Emergencies Ministry of Russia. Evaluation and forecast of Russia's strategic risks: Theory and Practice // Magazine "Law and Security" No. 1 2004.

3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1996.

4. Barton Comprehensive Risk Management Approach: Is it worth doing this: per. from English - M.: Issistan House "Williams", 2003.

5. Vladimirov B.A., Vorobiev Yul., Malinetsky G.G. and others. Risk management. Risk, sustainable development, synergistic. M., 2000.

6. Golubkov E.P. Basics of Marketing.-M.: Finpress, 1999.

7. Kotler F. Marketing Management.-SPb.: Peterkom, 1999.

8. Lykshinov A.N. Strategic management. - M.: Uniti-Dana, 2000.

9. Fathutdinov R.A. Strategic management. - M.: Case, 2001.

10. http://www.risknet.de/risk_management/risk_management.html.

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There are three groups of strategic management facilities that correspond to the three structure-forming levels of the organization: enterprises, strategic economic units (SHP) and functional areas of the organization.

1.Enterprise in general(Group of enterprises, concern, independent plant or factory).

2.Strategic economy field(business), i.e. A combination of products and market segments and activities of the enterprise allocated for independent industrial, technical, commercial and regional politics. The Sustainegic field of business of large multi-product enterprises is usually crushed into strategic units of business. A strategic business unit is an intra-ammable organizational unit responsible for developing a firm strategy in one or more segments of the target market.

The concept of strategic business units has had a significant impact on the formation of management systems in large firms of the whole world and therefore is considered as an important element of strategic management.

The basis of the allocation of strategic business units is the concept of market segmentation. The segment is a certain way a dedicated part of the market, where the enterprises can be implemented.Objects included in the segment must have common features.

Identification of strategic business units is largely subject to subjective selection. The following criteria for the allocation of business units can be proposed:

O Strategic business unit has a specific circle of customers and customers;

O business unit independently plans and exercises production and sales activities, logistics;

O The activities of the business units are estimated on the basis of income and losses.

The main task of a strategic unit of business is to achieve strategic goals set in front of it (the introduction of the cost reduction, an increase in market share, the development of new products, etc.).

3.Functional activity, or division- Structural divisions of the enterprise focused on performing certain functions and ensuring the successful activities of strategic business units and enterprises in general (R & D, production, marketing, finance, etc.).

One of the common points of view on strategic management is that the strategy refers to the exclusive competence of the highest leadership. However, without widespread participation of all personnel, it is impossible to develop or implement effective strategic decisions. Therefore, almost every organizational level of the organization management system can be considered as an object of strategic management.

In accordance with the elected levels of the management system of the organization and, accordingly, depending on the selected object of strategic management distinguish: the corporate strategy is the organization as a whole; business strategy - a separate strategic economic division of the organization; Functional strategy - functional management zone, operating strategy - the implementation of specific production and economic functions. An example of corporate strategies can serve as mergers and acquisitions, formation strategic alliances.

Strategy pioneerthis means that the Firm The first offers the original product or service on the market. Its advantage is based on the fact that someone is the first in this business, in a given territory or in the new market.

The initial strategic task of the pioneer- rapid growth, when strategic efforts are sent to the expansion of the market by stimulating purchases by consumers, previously not used by this product, but positively related to new products capable of assessing the real benefit of goods and having funds to acquire it. The competitive strategy consists in obtaining the advantages of PERD firms followers due to the most rapid development of new segments and create new distribution channels

Innovative firms "Sony", "Motorola", "Microsoft", "General Electric" and others are pioneers.

It is easier to achieve leadership than to hold it. Therefore, such leaders spend large funds for scientific and technical research and these costs are compensated by high prices for new items, or set monopoly high prices for their products.

The main features of the competitive advantage associated with the pioneer strategy is the following:

1. This competitive advantage is based on the use of innovations (food, technological, organizational).

2. It is associated with a significant risk, but ensures that there is a high profit and possibly superficial due to the establishment of a price monopoly.

4. When using innovations, it is difficult to plan planning, since in this case it is impossible to use the past experience, i.e. extrapolate in the future set in the past trends.

The main characteristics of the pioneer strategy:

1. No analogs of products.

2. The presence of potential demand for goods offered on the market.

Disadvantages (danger):

Big costs and new commercial risks associated with newcomers;

Danger of imitation - the rapid development of similar products to competitors;

The unpretentiousness of the market to perceive the proposed novelties;

No channels for the spread of new products;

Design, technological or other lack of refund.

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Strategic planning is the most important function of strategic management and its central link. It is the process of developing and concretizing the strategy of the organization in the form of a strategic plan.

The main task of strategic planning is to ensure flexibility and innovations in the activities of the Organization necessary to achieve its goals within the possibilities of the enterprise with a permissible risk level, which exists in any business.

Therefore, at all stages of strategic planning, it is necessary to provide identification, classification and development of methods for taking into account the influence of risks for the result.

GB Cleiner in relation to the adoption of strategic solutions gives the following risk definition:

"The risk is the possibility of such consequences of the accepted strategic decisions under which the goals of the goals are partially or not fully achieved."

The concept of developing any development strategy assumes that future results can be defined, evaluated or measured.

The main features of risk are: inconsistency, alternativeness and uncertainty. Such a feature as inconsistency in risk leads to a collision of objectively existing risky actions with their subjective assessment.

Since along with initiatives, innovative ideas, the introduction of new promising activities that accelerating technical progress and affecting public opinion and the spiritual atmosphere of society are conservatism, dogmatism, subjectivism, etc.

Alternativeness in risk implies the need to choose from two or more possible options for decisions, directions, actions. If there is no choice, it does not arise a risky situation, and, consequently, risk. The uncertainty is inflicted or inaccuracy information about the conditions for implementing the project (solutions). The existence of risk is directly related to the presence of uncertainty, which is heterogeneous in the form of manifestation and content. Entrepreneurial activity is influenced by the uncertainty of the external environment (economic, political, social, etc.), many variables, counterparties, persons whose behavior can not always be predicted with acceptable accuracy. The uncertainty of the decision made, the result is due to the following factors:

• - a sufficiently long time interval between the development of the strategy and the result obtained from its implementation;
• - degree of controlling the management process;
• - degree of awareness of variables affecting the developed strategy and the nature of relationships;
• - lack of experience in making specific management decisions;
• - subjective approach to making management decisions.

The strategic choice process always occurs in a lot of variability alternatives, each of which is inherent in one or another type of risk. The process of developing strategies and their implementation is continuous and requires constant adoption of certain decisions at different stages. This process consists of the formulation of the target, formalization of the planned result, from the determination of the method of its achievement and the criteria for its assessment, taking into account the risks and the rules of choice. In addition, the choice of solutions depends on the level of information obtained in the process of studying the problem of its level (system, personal, functional), structures and completeness of analysis, risk management systems, psychological mechanisms for choosing a solution (volitional, intellectual, emotional, etc.). The main factors for making decisions are the information conditions and their uncertainty.

According to the degree of certainty the conditions in which strategic planning is carried out can be divided into: deterministic, random and vague. Deterministic (defined) conditions suggest a well-known result with various alternative selection options. Random conditions suggest the determination of the result with each of the alternatives with a certain degree of probability. Undefined conditions do not imply the definitions of a potential result.

In general, all risks that may arise in the process of enterprise activities are conventionally divided into well-known, foreseen and unforeseen.

Famous risks - the risks of payment of fines, the loss of part of the resources due to theft or security disorders - arise as a result of a certain kind of impacts or changes in factors affecting the analyzed type of business.

Anticipated risks - loss of quality due to non-compliance with the requirements of the developed standards, contractual risks on prepayment, individual types of currency risks, etc., the possibility of the appearance of risks is predictable on the basis of the accumulated experience of enterprises. Unforeseen risks - changes for shareholders, changes in the political situation in the country, etc., are not projected in advance due to the lack of experience or information.

To effectively develop a risk management strategy, it is necessary to clearly and accurately determine for all participants in the implementation of the company's strategy, which is meant by the concept of "risk". We give the most common definitions of this concept.

A.P. Gradov, interpreting risk, draws attention to the following aspects:

• - first, at risk, the danger is meant that the project implementation may lead to losses;
• - secondly, at risk, they understand the measure of dispersion (dispersion) of the estimated indicators of the project under consideration (for example, profit, profitability, etc.), obtained as a result of a multiple forecast;
• - Third, at risk it means the danger associated with the fact that the purpose of the entrepreneurial project will not be achieved in the outlined volume.

In turn, Shannon gives the following risk definition in relation to the needs of the business assessment: "The risk is the degree of certainty (or uncertainty) associated with obtaining the expected income in the future."

According to E.A. Utkin, the risk is very often compared with certain quantitative losses of material, labor or financial resources due to the implementation of the developed action plan.

The absence of a generally accepted definition of the concept of "risk" is primarily due to the variety of risks themselves, varying degrees of their influence on business development and varying degrees of sensitivity to these risks. The risk is objectively present in any field of human activity, including in the process of implementing strategic plans for the development of enterprises.

It seems to us that in this field of activity at risk it is necessary to understand the possibility of not achieving the importance of assessment criteria in the process of implementing the basic or functional strategy for the development of the enterprise.

An indicator of the effect of risk on the implementation of the strategy and is an assessment of the consequences of not achieving the goal. The effect may have both negative and positive effect. However, the presence of various obstacles and risk factors in implementing the developed strategies reduces the attractiveness of data development or makes them very low-reaching. The factors affecting the risk and its consequences are divided into objective (factors of the external business environment) and subjective (which are directly related to the activities of the enterprise, its resource potential).

Risk subjects should be attributed to either those who take the risk of themselves completely, partially or indirectly, or those who control the risks. In line with this risk subjects include all enterprise stakeholders, as they are associated with the implementation of the strategy of this enterprise and have the opportunity to influence its implementation. Stakeholder is a fairly wide range of persons related to the enterprise. The main stakeholders of the enterprise are:

• - Investors investing their capital with a certain risk share in order to receive income on it;
• - lenders;
• - enterprise managers;
• - employees of the enterprise;
• - suppliers;
• - consumers (customers of the enterprise);
• - Public and state organizations.

Often permissible risk boundaries of one subject may not coincide with the risk assessment of other subjects. Already at the stage of goaling, it is necessary to achieve a compromise understanding of risk.

The company needs to find the optimal values \u200b\u200bof the specified borders on the established and agreed set of basic strategy indicators, determine the boundaries of its permissible level. The coordination of such parameters is one of the most complex tasks of strategic risk management.

When developing enterprises development goals, risks may arise. At the formulation of the goals of the Strategic Development Plan of the enterprise, it is necessary to collect the maximum number of reliable and reliable information, which in turn will reduce the impact of the subjective factor and choosing the most optimal solution in the context of a particular risk situation.

The information is eligible, which is obtained from reliable sources of both official and unofficial nature (the degree of reliability depends largely on stakeholders), relatively reliable and unreliable, which is obtained with a certain distortion.

For the purposes of risk measurement, it is necessary to initially explore all sorts of risks, identify them and classify them. In this regard, the detailed classification of risks is extremely important.

Initially, the risks that need to be considered when justifying and developing the development strategy of enterprises are divided into their scope:

• - catastrophic;
• - critical;
• - significant;
• - moderate;
• - Minor.

According to the degree of sensitivity to the risks of various groups of stakeholders, the following types of risks can be allocated:

• - permissible;
• - acceptable;
• - Invalid.

Of particular practical interest is an acceptable risk that suggests that to achieve the selected strategic goal, you can always find a solution that provides some compromise risk level, which corresponds to a certain balance between the expected benefits and threat of losses.

Also risks are divided into systematic and non-systematic. And they can be:

• - predictable and unpredictable;
• - obvious and hidden;
• - measurable and immeasurable;
• - predicted and unpredictable;
• - Direct and indirect.

According to the nature of the risks, they are divided into external (macroeconomic risks of the far environment and the risks of the neighboring environment) and internal (objective and subjective).

1. The macroeconomic risks of the far environment include political, economic (financial), environmental, industrial, risks associated with the emergence of unforeseen force majeure circumstances. Political risk is the possibility of damages or reduce profits, which are a consequence of public policy. Thus, political risk is associated with possible changes in the course of government, changes in the priority areas of its activities. Accounting for this type of risk is especially important in countries with non-well-established legislation, lack of traditions and culture of entrepreneurship. Political risk with the inevitability of inherent entrepreneurial activity, it is impossible to leave it, you can only rather evaluate and take into account. Mainly, the risks of adverse socio-political changes in the country, as well as the risks of business security in the country (vandalism, unemployment, terrorism, sabotage, etc.) should be attributed to political risks. Economic (financial) risk takes into account state regulation in the field of taxation, pricing of natural monopolies, land use, rental standards, export-import, foreign economic activity. This is the risk of loss (changes) of the projected result due to inflation, changes in the convertibility of national currency, changes in state regulation of the banking and financial system, etc.

Production risks are those associated with state regulation of the development of specific industries, enterprises or regions, the possibility of public policy support for their own manufacturer or creating the conditions of a possible invasion of the domestic market of the foreign manufacturer. Environmental risks are direct threats to an external business environment, as environmental protection activities are regulated by the state. Unexpected state regulation measures in the field of environmental protection can significantly affect the deviation from the predicted result. Risks associated with unforeseen force majeure circumstances. This risk includes natural disasters.

It should be noted that the above classification of the risks of the external business environment is not exhaustive. Unforeseen changes in any parameter listed above are a threat or uncertainty of achieving the desired result.

The risks of the neighboring environment should include production, scientific and technical, socio-economic. Production risk:

• - risk associated with possible loss of production facilities due to changes in the market needs or decrease in the quality of the product produced;
• - the risk of non-compliance with the planned scope of work, increase the costs, deficiencies of planning;
• - Scientific and technical risk - the risk of loss of the competitive advantage of an enterprise caused by a decrease in the performance of the main technological equipment, including the full stop of it;
• - the risk of moral depreciation of fixed assets and technologies, investment risks, risks of reconstructions, risks of manifestation of new technologies or activities, etc.;
• - the risk of developing new, more economical production technologies;
• - Socio-economic risks - risks of the pricing policy, a disadvantageous enterprise, absorbing one enterprise to others by using their monopoly advantage in the market market or by acquiring shares, risks of the unfavorable social climate of the enterprise, bankruptcy, etc.
• 2. Subjective internal risks include the risks of making management decisions at all stages of planning and implementing the strategy (in particular, the risks of erroneously selected goals, a breaking in strategic, tactful and operational planning, a violation of the hierarchy of the subordination of the goals and plan, etc.).

The objective internal risks are risks associated with various activities of the enterprise - environmental, legal, economic, marketing, financial, risks of personnel, circumstances.

The above classification of risks is sufficiently conditional, since it is difficult to determine clear boundaries between different types of risks.

Environmental risks include natural disasters and risk of flooding, fires and others, which arise due to violation of environmental protection laws, due to the lack of licenses and permits, reducing the performance of wastewater treatment facilities, etc.

The legal risks of the enterprise are the risks caused by the lack of licenses to carry out activities involving the availability of patent law, failure to comply with contractual obligations, the emergence of lawsuits with external clients.

Economic risks - risks of the loss of profitability of the enterprise, the risks of the loss of enterprise assets, reducing the liquidity and financial sustainability of the enterprise, reducing the volume of own funds and increase the amount of borrowed capital, the risks of reducing prices for the sale of products, changes in market conditions on major raw materials and energy, etc.

The risk of marketing includes risks from unsatisfactory advertising, the emergence of new competitors or the emergence of substitutors' goods, incorrect policies for the range and incorrectly selected pricing policy. They are associated with the loss of market sales markets, with a change in consumer requirements, a change in consumer demand, etc.

Risks of inflation, increasing refinancing rates, changes in the taxation system, rising energy prices, the loss of financial resources for the service of debts of natural monopolists are financial risks.

Personnel risks are associated with insufficiently qualified personnel by personnel, motivation of employees, loss of highly professional personnel, inefficient wage system.

The risks of circumstances are unpredictable changes in the conditions of economic activity, as well as specific risks in violating technology and safety. All risks are in relationships, changing and complementing each other as in the direction of strengthening the effects of risk factors and in the direction of the weakening of such an impact.