US dollar exchange rate for three months according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. What, according to experts, will happen to the dollar in the near future in Russia

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and the dollar will cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends, and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability ... The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own families, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and retirees preoccupied with one question: what will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

After reading the material to the end , you will find out our vision for forecasting the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions

Everyone knows very well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. The sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The motive for imposing sanctions against Russia was the political action in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result of which, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express its desire to secede from the unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 year a referendum was held, which attracted more 83 % of votes for disconnection from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation, as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence of military action and an act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted disconnection from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, have joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, restrictions apply to such companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were caught by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• VTB;
• Gazprombank;
• VEB;
• Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was also affected by the sanctions:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• Oboronprom;
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions are to prohibit residents of the European Union and their companies from performing transactions with securities, the validity of which more than 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited from operations with European accounts, investment, securities and even consultations European companies. Also, the European Union has banned the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (software, development) that can be used in the defense or civilian industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies, which were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entering the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who find themselves on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies are not allowed to provide companies that fall under the sanctions. financing for more than 30 days.

US sanctions relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies to the territory of Russia, programs to support the military forces of Russia. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is forbidden to use spacecraft, in the development of which US forces participated, and which also include elements developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All the sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relations among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on the actions on the part of Russia to lift the sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. By retaliating sanctions from Russia, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

Cooperating, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export... Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all due to prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia, over time, achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine becoming a so-called black pit in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having crouched under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019

Over the past year, the rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%... The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This especially worries people who are going to buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country.

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the fall of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign exchange did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left to influence the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now act on the course through inflation targeting. The basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and credit policy of the country.

Experts identify three main scenarios for the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to rebuilding and economic growth ... It is expected that the price of a barrel of oil in the countries of Asia and Korea will stabilize, which will rise to $ 95, and the dollar should acquire its former price. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % ... Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Troubled scenario

The collapse of the oil market only aggravates the situation with the stabilization of the ruble against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is 65-75 rubles.

According to some analysts and experts, our government's plans do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is where the efforts of the state are directed.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia is coping with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and farmers.

Do not expect the ruble to stabilize its performance. If you turn to statistics 2014-2015 years, then we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall in the economy cannot have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the conditions for the action of all bans and sanctions... Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current positions.

This will be facilitated by several reasons:

• the first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its exports brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large capital outflow of the country.

With such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% ... The dollar will stabilize, its cost will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

According to the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift the sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the oil price, in this situation it will remain at the same price of $ 40-60 per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and the World Bank forecasts, the GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

The reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the rise and fall of the ruble - the main factors

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex market. Many factors influence the decline and rise in the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article about what a beginner trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of ruble growth

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country policy. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investing by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources ... Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget by selling oil. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency... It is not immediately clear what is the meaning of these words, people normally relate to it. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not keep itself waiting long. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be stability of the economy. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, as residents and Foreigners, have a great impact on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production... An increase in this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to overfulfill it. The high volume of production will ensure not only the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

On weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate ... They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take thorough measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital... This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course... Thus, the capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a destructive effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall in industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring low wealth for themselves.
2. Foreign currency rate... In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has strong positions in the world foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which is in strong positions, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency... America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar on the part of America, the ruble loses its position... It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent a fall in the exchange rate, in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates... The majority of Russians want to make money on the exchange rate. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people ensure that their savings are securely stored through a stable currency. Huge transfers were made at the moments of a strong depreciation of the ruble exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures... During the fall in the exchange rate of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could have prevented a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product... Production in Russia, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is enough only to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment... The equipment that has remained since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation... This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer a higher quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technology production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to goods from another producer country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the fall in the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts.

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge recession. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and a strong rise in the dollar foreshadows and Nikolay Salabuto ... While holding the post of the head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices for several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions that will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which depends entirely on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, the policy of which will be associated with some events.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , Director of the Group of Companies "ALOR" believes that conditionally the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that are not politically, legally or economically justified. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. This includes external sanctions from other states and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the cost of oil in $ 74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. Such a price will contribute to the decrease by another 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagina more hopeful. He believes that the ruble's position today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adjust to the current situation and start grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, it is necessary for yourself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Forecast of oil for 2019 - news and forecasts

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar versus the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price goes down, respectively the ruble is losing ground ... When the price of oil rises, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

The graph of the dependence of the cost of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019... External Economic Bank predicts the cost in 6 $ 0 per barrel and above ... At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $ 70, and the support level is equal to $ 42.

Thanks to the news of the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the oil price is likely to “go” to $ 98-100. In case of "breaking" down $ 58 - moving to the range of $ 53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the oil price took the position of the absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $ 28 per barrel... That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its positions against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro... Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also saw a decline in the exchange rate of the national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to make different forecasts about the economic situation in the Federation and about the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble can be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions by the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts for the ruble exchange rate and oil prices ... According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles... As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $ 63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for the leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the world financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will equal 55-58 rubles if OPEC's policy will help raise oil prices to $ 75-80 per barrel.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of reduced investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer, due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not be beneficial to our currency.

One of the Canadian banks, Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts of the rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman sachs , by 2019 the national currency rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar... The oil price will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be equal to $ 70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble is strengthening successfully. Forecasting the rise in oil prices is good news. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up on patience and baggage of action, because a quick return of the former situation should not be expected.

7. Frequently asked questions on the ruble and dollar rates

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by the fact that the United States is already developing a plan to restrict the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliation.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. Government policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in the national resource of Russia, like natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. In the event that large countries decide to sell America's Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in no time.

CEO of City Express Alexey Kithatov assesses the chances of canceling the dollar in the country as minimal. Kitchatov says this will be a huge blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that await the Russian people, since the savings of the population, to a large extent, are stored precisely in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight capital outflow, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast of the ruble / dollar exchange rate for the next week?

In predicting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no particular reasons for the exchange rate stabilization.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall anytime soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by balance of imports and export ... These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

In talking about this balance, it must be remembered that America has biggest national debt ... In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is a highly liquid and most convertible currency in the world. Why are the forecasts of experts from year to year not coming true, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the dollar's fall?

If the dollar still falls, another currency must come to replace... It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar... But do not forget that the European Union currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis ... This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

This stagnation is also due to America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency even when all countries went through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in value. This helped the dollar to strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high level of conversion, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar ... This diversification takes place to preserve the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault of the economic crisis was one of the "powerful moves" on the part of America, which was staged to support the national course.

By maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as demand for the dollar did not diminish. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar rate will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by large countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to settle accounts with another country for the required assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed's decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed is planning to raise the interest rate in the near future, which may negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market

From time to time we will publish our forecasts and our visions on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast of the dollar for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make predictions yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts !!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for an early stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon take place.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worthwhile to understand that today Russia does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and also not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, a national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the inhabitants of Russia. According to official statistics, over the past two years, Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves... The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will fall significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state requires a lot of money. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level of wages and pensions to improve.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, to raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you have now understood that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?"

If you have questions and wishes, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

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Additional options are provided below, items are revealed by clicking. If you have any difficulties or questions, you can find answers to the most frequently encountered questions, as well as solutions to problems that may arise when using exchange information and other services on this page.

In the upper part there is a block with the official exchange rates of the Central Bank of Russia for today and tomorrow. The data is updated daily on weekdays, on weekdays from 13:00 to 15:00. Dollar exchange rate March 22, 2019 calculated on the previous day based on the weighted average exchange price at 11:30 and published on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Official exchange rates are broadcasted from the server of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the following instruments:

USD - dollar rate, EUR - euro exchange rate, UAH - hryvnia exchange rate, BYR - Belarusian ruble exchange rate.

Please note that the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia is published by the Bank of Russia at the rate of 10 hryvnia, and the rate of the Belarusian ruble is calculated at 1000 units. You can see the full list of exchange rates of the Central Bank of Russia for today and tomorrow in the table of the currency informant

Letters. code	Units	Currency	Course for 21/03	Course for 22/03	The change
USD	1	U.S. dollar	64.28	63.74	-0.54
EUR	1	Euro	72.94	72.79	-0.15
UAH	10	Ukrainian hryvnia	23.65	23.39	-0.27
BYN	1	Belarusian ruble	30.54	30.39	-0.15
KZT	100	Kazakhstani tenge	16.97	16.85	-0.13
JPY	100	Japanese yen	57.62	57.78	+0.16
AUD	1	Australian dollar	45.56	45.53	-0.03
AZN	1	Azerbaijani manat	37.89	37.57	-0.32
GBP	1	British pound sterling	85.04	83.85	-1.19
AMD	100	Armenian drams	13.22	13.12	-0.10
BGN	1	Bulgarian lev	37.28	37.14	-0.14
BRL	1	Brazilian real	16.96	16.88	-0.08
HUF	100	Hungarian forints	23.31	23.12	-0.19
DKK	10	Danish crowns	97.72	97.32	-0.40
INR	100	Indian rupees	93.37	92.97	-0.40
CAD	1	Canadian dollar	48.19	47.90	-0.29
KGS	100	Kyrgyz soms	91.94	91.18	-0.76
CNY	10	RMB	95.94	95.31	-0.63
MDL	10	Moldovan lei	37.24	36.93	-0.31
NOK	10	Norwegian kroner	75.30	74.94	-0.36
PLN	1	Polish zloty	17.02	16.96	-0.06
RON	1	Romanian leu	15.32	15.27	-0.05
SGD	1	Singapore dollar	47.56	47.33	-0.24
TJS	10	Tajik somoni	68.10	67.52	-0.57
TRY	1	Turkish lira	11.74	11.71	-0.03
TMT	1	New Turkmen manat	18.39	18.24	-0.15
UZS	10000	Uzbek soums	76.75	76.08	-0.67
CZK	10	Czech crowns	28.45	28.32	-0.13
CHF	1	Swiss frank	64.26	64.20	-0.06
ZAR	10	South African rand	44.38	44.95	+0.58
KRW	1000	Won Republic of Korea	56.89	56.49	-0.40

In the center of the page there is an interactive chart where you can view hundreds of financial market instruments in real time. The selection of the most popular instruments is presented in the "watchlist" column, which is located to the right of the chart, when you hover the cursor, a tooltip with a description of the selected instrument will pop up.

The Traders Forum provides its users with real-time interactive information in collaboration with Tradingview. Online stock charts. Forex, RTS, CME quotes on our forum, you can always monitor all world markets online.

Convenient tools for technical analysis, allow you to make calculations on the web page without using a trading terminal or additional software. Flash display technology streams data with the lowest latency possible for a web interface. Online stock charts. RTS index chart, EURUSD, SP500 online. Online quotes

The list of instruments contains the most liquid and demanded indices, stocks and currencies. Using the window for manually entering the ticker of an instrument, you can independently select the instrument you need.

Ticker USDRUB- the exchange rate of the dollar online on the exchange
Ticker UKOIL- online Brent oil quotes
Ticker SPX500- online quotes for the S & P500 index
Ticker RTS- graph of the RTS index traded on the Moscow Exchange
Ticker DXY- online dollar index chart
Ticker NAS100- online chart of the NASDAQ 100 index
Ticker GBPUSD- online chart of quotations of the pair British pound / US dollar
Ticker EURUSD- online chart of quotes of the EUR / USD pair
Ticker XAUUSD- quotes of gold on the exchange in real time

You can always overlay technical analysis tools on the chart and save the chart as a graphic image to your computer or get a link to the file. This way you can insert graphics directly into forum posts. To save or share an image, click on the camera in the green square in the upper right corner and follow the instructions

The Moscow Exchange, as well as other exchanges and the interbank Forex market - broadcast quotes on weekdays on weekdays, trading is not held on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, these days the charts are static and reflect the state of the market at the close on Friday.

If graphs are not displayed at all or errors appear, make sure that you have enabled Java Script and Flash technologies in your browser. If that's okay, try refreshing the page a few times. If the page is not displayed correctly, you need to clear the cache of your browser. If all of the above methods did not help to solve the problem, write about it in the chat or on the forum. The administration constantly monitors and fixes all the problems that have arisen.

In world practice, the most common type of displaying exchange information on charts is considered to be Japanese candlesticks. The advantage of this type is that the chart displays the maximum information about the price behavior in the specified time interval (time interval). To draw a candle, four price values ​​are taken - the opening price, the maximum price, the minimum price, and the closing price. The body of the candlestick (rectangle) is constructed as follows: the opening price is a horizontal dash, the closing price is also a horizontal dash, but depending on whether the closing price is lower or higher, the body of the candlestick begins to draw and if the quote goes down, the candlestick is filled in red if quotes on the exchange are growing, the candlestick turns green.

A very important point in Japanese candlesticks is information about the highs and lows (price spikes) that leave “tails” on the candlestick or they are also called “candlestick shadows”. These shadows show the value to which the quote reached in the selected time period, but the quote rolled back to the close of the candle and we only draw a “shadow” in the form of a vertical line on the chart.

Thus, Japanese candlesticks on stock charts allow you to visually see the direction of movement of quotations and their highs and lows, which is impossible to see on a regular line chart, which is built on only one point - the closing price.

The dollar exchange rate, as well as the quotes of Brent oil, other currencies and financial instruments - very often differ on different sites, there are several reasons for this. First of all, you need to understand on which website the dollar exchange rate is broadcast online. For example, very often, on sites, quotes are broadcast with a delay of 15 minutes - this is one of the main reasons why quotes may not coincide with the values ​​on our site.

It is also important to understand from which source the data is being broadcast. For example, on our website you can see the dollar exchange rate online 24 hours a day, even when trading on the MICEX is not being held. This is due to the fact that the page displays the weighted average dollar rate from the interbank foreign exchange market, which operates around the clock and is not an exchange market. When currency trading begins on the MICEX, quotes on Forex and on the Moscow Exchange become almost identical, due to the work of algorithms and arbitrage strategies of traders that extinguish inefficiencies in the market and quotes on Forex and on the MICEX take identical values. You can see something similar if you look at currency trading on the spot market and on futures, the charts will be the same, there will only be a difference in quotes due to the specifics of the futures contract.

There is another important point that explains why quotes can vary significantly for Brent oil and other futures. The fact is that futures are traded in series that differ in delivery date, for example, futures with delivery in December, March, June and September can be traded at the same time, while their quotes will have different values, since they reflect price expectations in different calendar periods ... It follows that if it is December now and the date is approaching the expiration of the futures December oil contract, then on one site you can see the price of $ 70 per barrel, and on the other $ 72, because on the first site the quotes of the current old contract, and the other site updated the contract and is already showing the March futures.

So, let's summarize. Quotes may differ on different sites for several reasons: the broadcast is delayed, different data sources, different futures contracts, technical failures. As for the quotes of currency pairs in the interbank market, it is worth remembering that the forex market is not centralized and is not regulated by the exchange, quotes are formed by banks and liquidity providers on their own, according to different sources and filtering systems, so forex quotes obviously cannot be the same in different sources, in contrast to exchange instruments, the correctness of which can always be checked on the official websites of the exchanges where this or that exchange financial instrument is traded.

Dollar exchange rate online

Instrument ticker on USDRUB charts. To understand the formation of the dollar exchange rate online, you need to familiarize yourself with the following definitions. Two main instruments are traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the MICEX currency section. USDRUB_TOD - an instrument that is traded from 10:00 to 17:15 (Moscow time), upon purchase and sale of which funds are purchased and sold in US dollars in lots for Russian rubles during trading in US dollars for Russian rubles with a maturity date on the day of the auction. The second instrument is USDRUB_TOM - the ticker of the trading time, which is from 10:00 to 23:50 (Moscow time), when buying and selling which, money is bought and sold in US dollars in lots for Russian rubles during trading in US dollars for Russian rubles. rubles with the deadline for the fulfillment of obligations on the first business day in the country of location of the settlement bank and in the Russian Federation, following the day of trading. Thus, at the exchange trading in Russia, the dollar rate turns around in these two instruments.

Exchange rates for today March 22, 2019 is updated daily on working days of the Moscow Exchange and is published, among other things, on our website, on this page. A fixed dollar rate from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is most often needed by companies that make settlements in foreign currency, while ordinary individuals and private traders are more interested in exchange prices. The fact is that when opening a brokerage account, the investor gets direct access to trading on the currency section, where he gets the opportunity to make buy / sell transactions not at the set price of the Central Bank, but at the current exchange quotes, which gives a number of advantages for making money on the exchange.

After the close of the exchange, trading continues on the interbank forex market, trading in the USD RUB currency pair around the clock, this allows you to form a stream of quotes in real time and provide page visitors with the dollar rate online 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday. During the opening of trading on the MICEX, traders in banks begin to conduct transactions already on the currency section of the exchange from 10:00 to 23:50 (Moscow time), at this time the quotes on the charts are the most accurate due to high liquidity and the work of algorithmic strategies. Nevertheless, in the Asian trading session, traders begin to dissolve USD RUB, and observing the numbers before the opening of the MICEX, it is possible to predict the opening levels of trading on the Moscow stock exchange with a fairly high degree of probability. Also, using the dollar rate in real time, you can independently calculate the Central Bank rate, which is calculated at the price of the exchange currency trading at 11:30 Moscow time.

The events taking place in the foreign exchange market in December 2014, when the dollar rate rose rapidly to a historical maximum, at the moment reaching the level of 79 rubles, attracted the attention of citizens who were not previously interested in trading on the stock exchange. Brokerage companies working with the Moscow Exchange, as well as forex dealers, began to actively offer services to the public for opening accounts for independent trading on the exchange. In 2015, exchange rates traded in a wide range from 49 to 70 rubles, the last day of trading of the year closed at a historical maximum of both the fixed rate of the Central Bank dollar and the non-exchange market, the dollar reached 75 rubles, and the euro rate was 80 rubles. The first full working day of 2016, January 11, was also remembered by traders as a day of new highs in the foreign exchange market and a collapse in the stock market, exchange rates reached 76 and 83 rubles, respectively, the MICEX index lost more than 3% at the opening, but by the end of the trading session, the drop narrowed and remained at the level of 2.5%.

Euro exchange rate online live chart

Instrument ticker on EURRUB charts. The euro is a means of payment of the member states of the European Union, and is also in circulation in 9 other European countries that are not members of the European Union. Thus, about this money, it can be argued that it is the same for the whole of Europe. It is a fairly young currency, but since 2006 it has surpassed the dollar in value. The currency is managed by the ECB, the central bank of Europe. The ESCB, the system of central banks in Europe, has similar rights. The system is made up of the central banks of the EU countries. There are not significant, but important differences between them in that the ESCB is engaged in the issue of coins and banknotes, and the ECB determines the financial policy.

To look at the Internet on the Euro exchange rate online at Forex, you can use various platforms. If you trade on forex and are interested in EURRUB quotes, then you have the opportunity to follow the course in real time right on the website. The site also contains a variety of charts that allow you to trace the dynamics of price changes and make forecasts for further changes in quotations. The exchange is equipped with all the tools for convenient trading that will help you understand the market situation online. It is also possible to track the euro exchange rate online on the website of the Moscow Currency Exchange (MICEX). Currency rates here are also updated in real time and there are charts of changes in EURRUB quotes.

Sberbank of Russia. If you are an individual and decide to buy or sell foreign currency, you can carry out this transaction in the Sberbank of the Russian Federation. The bank provides preferential quotes for those who subscribe to the appropriate service packages, which can be found in more detail on the official website of Sberbank. There is also a small nuance in that the online euro exchange rate is constantly changing, and the purchase / sale is carried out at the rate that is valid at the time of the actual withdrawal of funds, and not at the one that you saw at the time of the transaction. As with any self-respecting resource, there are graphs of course changes.

Oil price online in real time

Instrument ticker on UKOIL charts. By the price of oil, it is possible to determine trends in investor sentiment in the commodity market, in turn, the price of oil affects exchange rates, especially those countries that produce mainly raw materials, and not finished products, but this is not always the case. For example, the Russian ruble strengthened in March 2015, although Brent oil prices were going down during this period. The online oil course allows you to understand the situation on the market, predict further events, since in modern realities everyone is interested in how much oil costs at the moment and what its cost will be in the future.

Oil production. Russian Brent crude is considered to be of inferior quality compared to American WTI crude, it is distinguished by its high density and high percentage of sulfur. At the moment, the sale of oil is carried out on the basis of futures contracts, their introduction was initially met with rejection, but when buyers and sellers felt all the advantages of this system, this system gained sympathy from many manufacturing companies. After the introduction of futures contracts, oil pricing left the hands of OPEC (the organization of oil exporting countries), which monopolized this right until the mid-eighties of the last century.

Pricing. There are many factors influencing the change in oil prices. The most important, as is the case with any product, is the ratio of supply and demand, but this is not all. The oil price is also undergoing changes due to investor sentiment. Of the most influential reasons for the price change, one can single out the growth of the world economy and geopolitical risks, but the online oil rate can be influenced by the world oil reserves, the weather on the territory of the fields, the change in exchange rates (the effect is also in the opposite direction), the discovery of new sources of production, the influence of OPEC ...

Online oil course. Changes in oil prices in real time can be traced on many resources, the full picture with many charts can be given by the website of the forex exchange. Here you can follow the dynamics of price changes, forecasts for the near future, and draw conclusions about what awaits tomorrow.

Dollar Index Online

On our chart, the dollar index is broadcast in real time under the ticker USDOLLAR, this financial instrument is traded on the international currency exchange and is the equivalent of the DXY stock index. As a rule, exchange quotes are publicly broadcast with a delay of 10-15 minutes, therefore, for your convenience, we have chosen the USDOLLAR streaming chart, which is completely identical to the dollar exchange index and has only a difference in points. The dollar index allows you to visually observe the behavior of the American currency rate against all major currency pairs on one chart, which can undoubtedly have a positive effect on your trading on the USDRUB pair.

Instrument ticker on DXY charts. Any market index used in stock, derivatives or other securities markets should be understood as a tool for averaging prices for all traded instruments. The presence of the index allows you to determine the state of the market trend at a given time in order to make a decision on transactions for individual assets. Therefore, such an index serves as a valuable predictive trading tool. For the Forex market in 1973, when floating exchange rates were used against the US dollar and the gold price after the collapse of the Breton Woods system, the USDX (Unated States Dollar indeX) dollar index was developed, also denoted by the ticker DXY. From now on, for the entire period of trading in the Forex market from Monday to Friday, a continuous round-the-clock DXY calculation is performed based on data on the Forex market exchange rates.

The dollar index is usually calculated as a weighted geometric moving average of the rates of the single European currency - the euro and the monetary units of Canada, Great Britain, Japan, Switzerland and Sweden against the US dollar. The predictive value of USDX as an analytical tool to determine the aggregate movement of the Forex market is unusually high and should be the result of a synthesis of a fundamental and technical approach to the analysis of the market situation. Using the USDX index as a predictive tool for analyzing the exchange rate on Forex is a synthetic combination of technical and fundamental analysis. The fundamental component of the method of using the USDX as an analytical tool is to determine the "absolute" price of the dollar in terms of its relationship with other currencies. The technical side of the issue is that graphically the dollar index is a curve to which all known methods of technical analysis are fully applicable. The DXY index, therefore, is an average indicator of the general market movement, the more familiar name for which is the term "trend". Then currencies should move in line with this trend movement and, therefore, the dollar index should rightfully be considered a trend indicator. Let us explain this with the example of two European currencies - the Swiss franc and the euro.

Practical use of USDX. Every practicing trader knows about the existence of a correlation between the rates of individual currencies, which can be either direct or inverse. With a direct correlation, exchange rates move in the same direction, with a reverse - in the opposite way. The euro and the Swiss franc are in a state of inverse correlation and with the growth of the euro against the US dollar, the Swiss franc, on the contrary, decreases. The exchange rate of the dollar as a whole, shown by its index, in this case shows a downward, "bearish" trend. When the US dollar appreciates, everything happens exactly the opposite.

Another side of the USDX application in practice is its use as an independent trading instrument - a futures on this index. The maximum volume of togrs for the DXY instrument differs, at the same time, the ICE exchange (short for the English Intercontinental Exchange), located in Atlanta. In conclusion, we can give an example of another dollar index that exists alongside the USDX. Such an index is TWDI, also called a trade-weighted index, which is calculated by the US Federal Reserve. Its difference from DXY is based on the fact that the exchange rate of the American currency is calculated in relation to a wider currency basket consisting of the national currencies of the states - trade partners of the United States. However, due to the fact that the composition of this basket of currencies is not constant, the TWDI index itself is a variable value and, for this reason, cannot serve as a tool for technical analysis.

Gold course online

Instrument ticker on XAUUSD charts. Acquiring precious metals is a great way to preserve and increase your wealth. At the moment, the dollar has reached its highest level in the last quarter of a century, but is still growing. The online gold rate does not undergo major changes, there are no jumps in it, which means that the risk of all kinds of risks when investing is significantly reduced. XAUUSD price quotes are stable and predictable, which predisposes to long-term investments in order to save and increase their resources.

Factors affecting the course. Although the gold rate is stable, and demonstrates stable growth, small irregularities do occur, because the market cannot exist without risks, but they are so small compared to other rates that they are easy to neglect. Gold prices are affected by changes in global economic growth, and prices are also affected by changes in investor sentiment. You can track the rate of gold online on various resources, if you are a forex player, you can easily follow the rate thanks to the numerous statistical calculations provided by the exchange. Due to the stability of gold prices, quotes are easily predicted for several days, and sometimes weeks in advance.

Investment feasibility. As mentioned more than once above, oil prices are stable, so investing in this precious metal is relatively safe and most expedient, especially if you are looking for material for a long-term investment. Gold is of little interest to traders and speculators, because speculative tactics and strategies work little here due to the high stability of the exchange rate. The yellow metal prefers a conservative approach, only in this case you can get a benefit, even if it is not as big as when playing actively on the foreign exchange market, but stable, you are unlikely to lose your savings when investing in gold - for this you need a lot try. Investing in gold guarantees that you will stay where you are anyway, as gold prices are one of the few stable things in this volatile world.

The day of many Russians begins and ends with a search for information about the current exchange rate. Its value affects our financial capabilities. It determines the cost of imported goods and medicines, the cost of travel abroad, the cost of foreign cars and much more. The formation of the rate occurs as a result of trading on currency exchanges. With them, money plays the role of a commodity that is bought and sold. Supply and demand form the value of currencies in relation to each other. It was she who received the name of the exchange rate. This value is not constant. It changes its value throughout the entire trading session.

Until the 30s of the last century, the exchange rate of national currencies depended on the gold reserves of states. Each currency corresponds to a certain gold equivalent. This approach to assessing the national currency has changed with the introduction of the gold-currency system. Gold was replaced by a reserve currency, in the role of which the US dollar was chosen by the financiers. The ratio of the value of national currency units to the dollar has become a fundamental factor in determining the exchange rate of national currencies.

Foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the foreign exchange market

Issues related to currency regulation are under the jurisdiction of the Central Bank. He chooses the option of establishing the rate of the national currency, which can be fixed or "floating". The first is established officially. It means how much the state is willing to pay for a particular national currency of other countries. This rate is taken into account when concluding international treaties.

To maintain a fixed rate, the Central Bank has to conduct constant trading operations to buy or sell foreign currency within the limits of its reserves. This regulation of the exchange rate is called the motto policy. A "floating" exchange rate implies its regulation through exchange trading. In practice, there is no absolutely free market formation of the exchange rate. The Central Bank always keeps its finger on the pulse of exchange rate fluctuations and, by its intervention, tries to keep them within a certain corridor.

Methods such as discount policy, devaluation, currency dumping or revaluation are used as currency regulation. The essence of the discount policy is to change the discount rate, which affects the inflow or outflow of capital from the country. Increase the discount rate in cases when they want to strengthen the national currency and ensure its growth.

Every year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation develops a strategy for its monetary policy, which determines the form and methods of currency regulation. It takes into account the state of the domestic economy and the processes taking place in the global financial system. In 2016, the Central Bank plans to raise the discount rate and maintain inflation at 4%. A decrease in the rate of decline of the ruble can be slowed down by a reduction in capital outflow from the country and a decrease in demand for currency. Many international analysts predict the beginning of the rise in oil prices in 2016. This could have a serious impact on the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.

Impact of the dollar exchange rate on the Russian economy

Settlements under international agreements are carried out in foreign currency. Payments with the EU countries account for about 53% of the foreign trade turnover. This determines the need for the Russian economy in euros. Together with the US dollar, the euro is the second reserve currency. The tangible dollar impact on the Russian economy is associated with oil prices, which are pegged to this currency. The state of the Russian economy largely depends on the fluctuations in the exchange rate of these two major currencies.

The low exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble reduces budget revenues and the competitiveness of the products of Russian producers. The fall in the ruble exchange rate stimulates domestic producers. The prices of imported goods and raw materials are rising and they are becoming less affordable for buyers and producers.

The negative consequence of the depreciation of the domestic currency is the inevitable rise in inflation. It is associated not only with an increase in the price of imported goods, but also with other factors. Many domestic goods have an imported component. It can be raw materials, materials, components or packaging. They contribute their percentage of the rise in price to the price of the product. Domestic manufacturers and retailers are also taking advantage of the moment. With the growth of the dollar, they seek to raise the prices of their products to the level of imported goods and receive additional income.

The impact of the price of Brent oil on the ruble exchange rate and the Russian economy

The exchange rate of the Russian currency is significantly dependent on the price of oil. Profits from the sale of oil and gas account for almost half of the country's budget and a third of GDP. The fall in oil prices leads to a decrease in the revenue side of the budget. A weak ruble allows them to compensate for their losses when oil prices fall. When converting dollar earnings, they receive, with a fall in the rate of the domestic currency, the same income in ruble equivalent as at a higher price and a lower dollar exchange rate.

By lowering the exchange rate of the national currency when the oil price falls, the state seeks to “collect” the missing ruble budget revenues. The instability and unpredictability of oil prices makes it impossible to make long-term forecasts of the ruble exchange rate and implement serious programs for the development of the country's economy. Since 2016, the Government has switched to annual budget planning.

Many economic experts believe that a severe decline in oil prices could lead to the collapse of the financial system. Not all resource economies, whose budgets were filled with proceeds from oil sales, will be able to survive the protracted oil crisis. Russia will face difficult times. The only way to stabilize the domestic economy can be its structural changes. It is extremely difficult to carry them out in a short time without long-term, cheap investments. Time will show whether Russia will cope with the challenges of world crises.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in Russia for today, March 13, 2019, 17:48, is 65.7674 rub. (1 USD = 65.7674 rubles). The dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, March 14, 2019, is set at the level 65.589 rub. Below on this page you can see a graph of the dynamics of the dollar rate against the Russian ruble (USD / RUB) for a week, month, quarter, for a year and for all time, find out the exchange rate for a given date, and also find out when, how and why the Central Bank sets the official course.

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The dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today, March 13, 2019 (Wednesday): 65.7674 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia as of today, March 13, 2019, 17:48, is 65.7674 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the Central Bank lowered the dollar rate in Russia by -0.3089 rub. (-0.47%).

The dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for tomorrow, March 14, 2019 (Thursday): 65.589 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, March 14, 2019, is 65.589 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the dollar rate was depreciated by -0.1784 rub. (-0.27%).

Dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Russia - Graph

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2019 was 55.6717 69.9744 rub. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has weakened by -8.7211 rub. (-13.26%).

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current month was 55.6717 rub., maximum value - 69.9744 rub. Over the month, the US dollar has fallen in price against the Russian ruble by -3.4177 rub. (-5.2%).

Archive of the dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the selected date

In this table, you can see the dynamics of the dollar rate in Russia by days for a given date.

When and how does the Central Bank set the official ruble exchange rate?

The Central Bank sets the US dollar against the ruble for tomorrow, every weekday. The established rate begins to operate on the next calendar day after the day of establishment and remains in effect until the next established rate becomes effective. Data are published on the regulator's website before 15:00 Moscow time (as a rule, this happens around 14:00)

Let's take an example: on Tuesday, the Bank of Russia set the dollar rate for Wednesday. This is the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow. In this case, on Tuesday, the rate for today is the rate set on Monday. On Wednesday, the rate for today becomes the rate set on Tuesday, and the rate for tomorrow (Thursday) is published on Wednesday around 2:00 pm Moscow time.

Separate logic applies on weekends and holidays. So, on Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sets the course for tomorrow, which is valid on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The new course for tomorrow will be published only on Monday afternoon and will take effect on Tuesday. The same logic applies to holidays.

How is the Central Bank's rate formed? To do this, the regulator averages the quotes of the USDRUB pair at trading on the currency section of the Moscow Exchange during the index session (from 10:00 Moscow time to 11:30 Moscow time). Then, based on the dollar rate, the Bank of Russia forms the official rates of the other 33 currencies. The exchange rate of the ruble depends on supply and demand in the market.

Why do we need an official dollar exchange rate, because it quickly becomes obsolete and does not “keep up” with the real dynamics of the foreign exchange market? It is a standard for government agencies in the preparation of reporting, and also serves as a convenient reference point for people far from the world of stock exchange news.

Average monthly exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation 2017, 2018, 2019

The average dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current year is 66.0656 rubles. The average dollar exchange rate for the current month is at the level of 65.8378 rubles.

(10 estimates, on average: 4,60 out of 5)

Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018... In this article, I will traditionally consider the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and can change further, in order to draw conclusions about what will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018... I think that this should be of interest to all residents of the Russian Federation.

As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.

So, before making a forecast of the dollar rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics were in the past year.

Dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017.

In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened slightly over the year.

Here is a graph showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:

As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate moved within the channel, which I marked on the chart. The year began with the upper border of the channel, and ended closer to the lower one, thus, at the end of the year, there was a slight strengthening of the ruble exchange rate: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.

It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: fundamental analysis.

First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors affecting the ruble exchange rate and how they might change in 2018.

Factor 1. Oil prices. The ruble's dependence on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent crude oil prices over the same period.

At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble exchange rate was strengthening, although it should logically fall. Then oil took a fairly strong upward trend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, practically did not change.

Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $ 44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about $ 67 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. During this period, oil has risen in price by 1.5 times, but the ruble exchange rate has not changed!

What does this mean? On the one hand, it says that the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is decreasing. On the other hand, we all understand perfectly well that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.

Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.

What will happen to oil in 2018?

• The supply of oil on the market still exceeds the demand for it, and this trend is predicted to continue;
• The OPEC agreement on limiting production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - oil revenues account for 50% of the country's GDP);
• High oil prices will increase US shale oil production;
• Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.

Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from current levels is more likely. If oil prices fall, the ruble exchange rate is likely to weaken as well.

Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, like “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their impact was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift the sanctions, moreover, they are constantly increasing, new ones are being introduced.

All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “the sanctions are only for our benefit”), and indirectly - on the ruble exchange rate as the national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP is decreasing, inflation is growing.

The lifting of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially a complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious preconditions for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to the further devaluation of the ruble.

The nearest negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from purchasing Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.

It was only after the appearance of this news that a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.

Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate, and will contribute to its decline. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of government bonds of the Russian Federation are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-resident capital from other Russian assets, in particular - shares. The fall in stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.

In addition, the gradual decline in the yield of Russian ruble government bonds leads to the fact that even without a ban they become unprofitable for foreign investors (the ratio ceases to be attractive).

All this speaks about the continuation of the outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a consequence, the weakening of the ruble.

Factor 3. Central Bank Policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, it is imperative to consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Let's consider his main instruments of currency regulation, and how he applies them.

Discount rate. Throughout 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The step of decreasing is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.

Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates the growth of inflation, which means that a foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, accordingly, can decrease.

In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decline, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Foreign exchange interventions. Here it is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation through the Central Bank was more and more actively buying currency on the Moscow Exchange. So, for example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year, such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.

Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, consequently, a slight drop in the ruble exchange rate, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017 the ruble was strengthening.

Moreover, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly held the so-called. “Verbal interventions,” stating that by the end of the year the dollar rate will surely rise, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up foreign currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not occur, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.

This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015 senior officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively asserted that it would fall, on the contrary, it strengthened a little.

All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voiced have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.

Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential elections to be held in March. In recent years, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the current president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and support to him.

One of the factors of this improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is getting stronger - it means that it is getting better, we are pursuing the right policy” - this message can be seen among others.

I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections - also, so that there is no clear “border” of the trend change that coincides with the elections. But further, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely be gone, since there will be practically no resources left for this.

Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, in the region of 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, there is no need to expect any improvements in 2018; I do not know anything about the plans for such reforms.

Inflation will be from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is rather associated not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete fall in the purchasing power of the population (in 2017 it decreases by 1-2% in comparison with 2016, and all previous years fell even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation in comparison with 2017.

Separately, I would like to note the closure of the reserve fund and the reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are being depleted more and more, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.

Personally, I do not see and do not expect any significant positive changes in the economy that could have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I think this is not so significant.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: technical analysis.

Now that we have considered the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's conduct a technical analysis to determine when and what the price movement may be.

Attention to the chart:

In the last year, the ruble exchange rate has been clamped at, symbolizing a figure of uncertainty. It is indicated by blue lines on the chart. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakout will occur, and the rate will exit the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the value of the initial height of the triangle.

In my opinion, breaking the triangle down, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are a lot of negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upward, after the rate fluctuates for some time inside the triangle.

At the top, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which the course will most likely be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. In case of breaking through the level of 66.5, the dollar against the ruble may rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018: conclusions.

Summing up the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:

1. In general, the fundamental factors indicate that the ruble exchange rate will fall.
2. There is a serious factor that currently restrains this decline - a strong rise in oil prices.
3. As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change slightly, and a strong strengthening is unlikely.
4. If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble will begin to fall.
5. The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it is likely to be weak.
6. The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
7. With a significant increase in some negative factors, the dollar exchange rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble exchange rate may fall weaker, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.

I got this forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018. As always, I am ready for constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both famous and not so well known. The main thing is to remember that only you yourself are responsible for your financial decisions.

Join the number of regular site visitors and improve your financial literacy to better understand economic processes and more effectively manage personal finances. Until next time on the site!

Comments on record: 69

Hello again! I don't even know where to start) I only read the beginning of the article, I really liked your warning about what is dangerous
listen to other people's opinions when it comes to finances), I remember telling you about this last year that people should be warned. Last year, I think you shouldn't write anything, you yourself see everything who was right and who was not. The dollar has not gone anywhere, oil is under 70, that is, exactly as I wrote a year ago.
I will not write anything on the article itself, I have not read it yet, but later I think I will write it off.

• Hello, you are right there). In my opinion, you are solely engaged in tracking this topic, well, by the way, this is your business. Of course, you will write down later, because only for this you come here, but I immediately warn you traditionally: the slightest manifestation of disrespect, and your comment will not be. Therefore, re-read very well before sending 🙂
  Last year I did not write that the dollar "will fly away somewhere." I will quote: “the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2017 at the moment can be described in one word:“ uncertainty ”. Conclusions: 1. Uncertainty. 2. The dollar is up rather than down. " And the word "uncertainty" was repeated in the article many times. Actually, this is what happened - nothing happened, no special movements up or down. Uncertainty was and remained at the end of the year.

1. Hello Julia. Personally, I keep my fixed capital in dollars. I think this is a personal matter for everyone, depending on what you plan to do with your free money and when. For long-term preservation, so far, dollars have always been better. For the euro, you can write a separate forecast, in my opinion, it can grow even further against the dollar in the near future, but then it can fall.

Again, I see the comment was deleted, but oh well, it was addressed specifically to you, others do not need to read it.

Let's go for oil)
The fact that oil has risen in price 1.5 times as you write, and the ruble exchange rate has remained at the same level, in no way can mean what you wrote, it says only one thing - the purchase of surplus currency, for example: the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency in the domestic market by 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018. Not weak, huh? I thought I wrote last year that they will keep the course by any means, since the further strengthening of the ruble will hit competitiveness hard.
of our manufacturers in the global market.
Regarding the supply and demand of oil. There is still a surplus, but it is not at all significant, it is worth looking at how much it has decreased in a year, the picture changes immediately. If this continues, then in 3-5 years we will not have an oversupply, but a deficit. Consumption is growing rapidly around the world, for example: China's oil imports totaled 34 million metric tons in December. As a result, imports for 2017 were up 10.1% to a record 420 million metric tons + a significant reduction in US inventories.
Regarding OPEC, I didn’t understand at all, what kind of extension are we talking about? As far as I know, it was extended until the end of 2018.
Why did you decide that production in the United States will increase enough to put serious pressure on world prices? On the contrary, the number of drilling rigs has decreased in recent years and it is still too early to talk about increasing production.
What does Alaska have to do with it? I don’t understand at all how this can affect oil this year. Do you even know how long it takes to develop deposits?

Personally, I think that oil will continue to grow this year, it is difficult to say to what price it will rise, but there can be no talk of a fall.

Hello, I am writing from the phone there may be blots. Michael, state your version for 2018. And more specifics. Things like you write must be supported by facts. Leave your emotions to women. Sincerely.

• Or maybe you first write something on the topic yourself, before demanding it from others? So far, I have only written about oil, and I have explained my position in sufficient detail and in detail, even more in detail than it is written in the article. I don't owe you anything, so be content with what I write. I didn't understand about emotions at all, what emotions should I leave to women?

  Emotions should not be nodded towards women. You men have even worse emotions.

Sanctions.
The only thing I agree with is that the sanctions have practically no pressure on the course.

You write that tougher sanctions will negatively affect trade? In 2017, there was also a repeated tightening of sanctions, but foreign trade turnover increased by $ 95 billion compared to 2016, while there is no data for the whole year, I can only compare it to November.

Why write about the pitiful millions that were taken out of the stock market, I don't understand at all, they introduced them last year, they took them out, next year they will invest again. Moreover, write that this is a serious outflow. These are such insignificant amounts that it is even difficult to name them - “A drop in the ocean”, it is much less. And based on this, you decided that there is an outflow of investments from the country? I just have no words.

GDP. What's wrong with GDP? It grew by almost 2% and no sanctions could interfere with growth.

Rising inflation. Even I did not think about such low inflation rates. Here, too, the sanctions did not exert any pressure.

Everything happened exactly as I wrote a year ago)

Conclusion: the sanctions both last and this year will not be able to exert serious pressure on the course.

Central Bank policy.
Discount rate. Let's start with the fact that it is correct to write - the key rate, not the discount rate) From all that has been written, it is only true that a decrease in the key rate is a positive for the ruble. How did you decide that economic growth will stimulate inflation and even more currency growth? It largely depends on what this economic growth will be based on, it can, on the contrary, strengthen the ruble if this growth is due to exports, and our exports have grown more than imports over the past year.
Foreign exchange interventions. It's ... I just have no words. What is the increased demand for currency, what are you talking about? They're buying up the surplus! And by the end of the year, purchases increased due to the rise in oil prices, as there was a lot of surplus! It is being bought for only one reason - to keep the exchange rate, to prevent the ruble from strengthening. If they did not do this, you would have remained Konstantin without "pants", since the rate would have been 52-54) But such a rate is not profitable for our economy, therefore they are buying. And as I wrote above, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency on the domestic market for 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018, that is, more than $ 4 billion. This is a serious amount for 1 month and all the surplus! What kind of currency deficit can we generally talk about in this situation?
Regarding the "forecasts" of the Ministry of Finance, there is nothing surprising) Last year I also remember writing that this divorce was for people to buy up currency.

• Spelling mistakes, Michael, make it difficult to understand your thoughts.

Presidential elections.
There is nothing special to add, of course they will try to make people feel the improvement, but whether it really is, or not, and due to what or who was done, this is a separate topic.

Economic indicators.
GDP, inflation, there are numbers, there is nothing special to add. The reserve fund was not closed, but merged with the NWF, these are completely different things. The Reserve Fund currently has a balance of 1 trillion, which should be transferred to the NWF.
As before, I do not see any critical changes in the NWF that would give prerequisites for its depletion.

Well, now actually my forecast) The course will be in the range of 55-65, of course above 63 is generally unlikely, but I leave a small margin)
I will write out a little, although a lot has already been written above, I will repeat everything exactly.

1. Oil prices. Oil will rise in price, of course, rollbacks are possible during the year, but one way or another it will grow, you can read more above. Consequently, the inflow of currency will grow along with oil, thereby creating an excess, which by itself will work to strengthen the ruble.

2. The volume of foreign trade. The overall figures for the year have not yet been published, but we can say with confidence that the volumes have grown by about 25% over the year, I can tell you just a huge growth, while exports are growing more than imports. Accordingly, the balance increases and, consequently, the surplus of currency. Perhaps this year we will not see such an increase, but even less will there be a fall. Any increase in volumes, even if not very significant, will be positive for the ruble.

3. The economic indicators are slowly growing, this year the growth will be about the same, so one should not expect a serious weakening of the ruble.

While everything indicates that it will be very difficult for the dollar to rise above 60, a number of changes may occur during the year that will help it go beyond this mark, or may not. To be honest, the chance to break through 55 seems more real to me than to break through 65)

I want to warn everyone that this is all my personal opinion and reasoning, you should not invest money based only on my forecast, I just provided the analyst and my conclusions. Although my predictions were very accurate for 2 years in a row and fully reflected the picture of what was happening after, this does not mean that I cannot be wrong. You risk your money and think with your own head!

If you have any questions, write)

• Question: why, given all the positive or neutral factors that you described, do you predict a depreciation of the ruble?

  Konstantin, I'm talking about what I spoke about last year - don't expect a strong weakening of the ruble. If 5-10% is cheaper for you, which, in principle, can be equal to inflation, then let it be cheaper)

Michael, this is all great. So you write all the time “and I said ...”, “but isn't that what I told you ...”, “and I turned out to be right ...”. And under the previous article on this topic, you wrote the same thing about an article two years ago. But since you are so fond of repeating this, then your words in the first commentary to the forecast for 2017: “The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 is no more than 70.”. Yes, you are really right !!! He's no more than 70! And you can also write “no more than 100” or “above 40”. And in the next comment, you wrote “For a perfect balance, we need the 65 rate now, with a gradual increase to the 70 area”. The course, which “we need for a perfect balance,” as you can see, did not work out, and during the year it was never even done. Even though “You said ...”. And the most interesting thing is that we predicted the same in the direction of travel. I wrote that it will most likely grow weakly, and you too, even you put higher numbers - so I gave them. Why don't you write now “But I told you that it will be less than 70, and it will be less than 70?”)

Write your numbers for 2018, describe the behavior of the ruble exchange rate, so that it does not coincide with my description (in 2017, it coincided, oddly enough!), And so that in 2019 you also have something to write about “and I said … ”. Because these are the main keywords in everything you write 🙂

• Already written at the same time, great. This is what I wanted to hear.

  Last year, you just distracted me a little from the topic. Why doesn't my forecast suit you? I let people know that there would be no strong dollar growth! Isn't that what everyone hoped for when they bought under 70? As a result, there is no growth. Therefore, I did not even bother for the minimum threshold. In principle, I did not have a goal to designate it. For oil, for example, my forecast was generally ideal, I wrote that it would rise in price to 70, the price of oil is now 69.8, I think there is nowhere more precisely.
  All my forecasts were in a fairly narrow range from the values ​​at that time, if we assume that this forecast for a whole year was the most accurate of all that was written there, including more accurate than yours. Therefore, I consider your claims unjustified.
  Your forecast was generally uncertain and most likely upward, I’m not talking about oil at all, you wrote that the price will fall) Regarding the balance, we still need a 60+ rate, but due to serious surpluses of currency, they are simply not able to do this . I wrote that they will try to weaken the ruble, isn't that what they have been doing all year, buying up surplus currency?

  I wrote about your first two comments. First (!). In them I certainly did not “distract” you from the topic :-). Perhaps all your forecasts were somewhere in a narrow range, but here they were for the dollar (and this is the topic of the forecast, and not oil or something else) “less than 70, with a gradual increase to the area of ​​70”.). And what is “more accurate than mine” I don’t understand at all). This is no less vague than mine. I'm not making any claims, just observations. This time you wrote more specifically, which suits me more).

  If possible, insert a quote and completely, otherwise the meaning is completely different, you just redo what I have written. I wrote somewhere that the course will be 70? I never received a single specific statement about the growth of the rate to 70. I wrote that the rate at the end of the year is not more than 70, making it clear to people that they do not strongly hope to return the money invested, how to convey this information to you ? And if you mean it:
  “And proceeding from the fact that we need to raise production, the state will do its best to help export. For a perfect balance, we need a rate of 65 now, with a gradual increase in the area of ​​70. " So he is still needed, but so far it does not work out and there is no statement that he will be 70 here either. The Ministry of Finance has already poured 800+ billion to buy out the surplus, and I believe that this is not weak support, since the surpluses are very large, so far it has not been possible to pull above 60. Although you claim that we have a shortage of foreign currency)
  I will repeat it again! I have never written that the dollar will grow strongly in 2017, especially in the region of 70, on the contrary, I replied that you will not see this figure very soon, here, for example, is the answer:
  “Marina, I apologize for the long answer, there were many cases. I think the 68 course will not be until the end of 2017, and perhaps only in 2018, so you just have to wait. ”
  Here I was asked specifically about the rate of 68. It was a year ago, that is, I made it clear to the person that there is no need to hope that such a rate will not be in the near future, that is, there will be no weakening of the ruble, so it does not exist, about which 70 do you even say?
  There are two options, either you are trying to "spite" me on purpose, or you are very inattentive when reading.
  Konstantin, you'd better follow yourself, there is nothing at all that you have written that even closely reflects what is really happening now.

  "To spite on purpose", "they followed themselves."

  Now you really got hooked on this, because there is nothing more to complain about. And you are trying to expose something completely different from what I had in mind, what is it generally called?
  Let's go over everything else that I wrote a year ago.
  1.Oil will gradually rise in price to 70
  2. The sanctions have not put pressure on the rate for a long time and their extension will not greatly affect the rate.
  3. I can say with full confidence that the GDP in 2017 will not be in the red, perhaps the plus will not be significant, but it is definitely not worth waiting for a fall.
  4. Remember I told you that everything will change in foreign trade and the balance will grow by the end of the year and will even be more than in 2015? But you vehemently denied it! Well, here's the balance: November 2015 - 10107.7, November 2016 - 10405.7. December 2015 - 12662.9, December 2016 - 13217.7.
  Well, this year the growth will be very significant compared to 2016, especially in the first half of the year.

  Where of the above did I go wrong? That's right - nowhere! And how could I, in your opinion, say that the rate will be 70, if I myself wrote that there are a lot of constraining factors and only at the state level it is possible to somehow keep the rate and pull it up a little bit. Pulling it up a little, it does not mean that this will happen within a year or even two. I wrote that they would try not to let the exchange rate fall, as it would hit the economy, I wrote that they would gradually raise it to 65, and then to 70, but not a word that they would do it in one year. could write, as it may take a longer time and I understand that perfectly.
  You just need to read carefully and everything will be clear right away.

  🙂 Come on.
  1. I have not argued otherwise.
  2. I also did not claim otherwise.
  3. And here I have not argued otherwise.
  4. Of course I don’t remember, I have more than 11 thousand comments on the site! Why would I remember them all? I did not “categorically deny it”. You came up with). I specially re-read all the comments, killing 10 minutes of my time. I won't do it anymore, time is money. That is, and even here, where you write “categorically denied,” this is absolutely not the case.

  And then twist it again. Wow, because you are so calling for attentiveness ... I did not say that “you stated that the course will be 70”. So you love to cling to words, but you read it completely inattentively. I wrote that you claimed that the rate would be NO MORE than 70, and you were absolutely right, which is not surprising at all!) Just as if you had written that it would be below 100 or above 40.

  This is the end of the dispute on this topic, I will not publish more comments that flow from empty to empty - they are not interesting to anyone except you :-).

What is this currency forecast for 2018? This is not a forecast, but just a set of different factors and those analysis without specifics. Maybe so, maybe that way. You will decide up or down.

• Perhaps so, but the course will really depend on these factors, and how they will develop is difficult to predict, I do not want to poke my finger in the sky. I decided: the ruble is down, the currency is up (this is indicated in the conclusions), and I also set out my vision for each factor.

2. Yes, I believe that USD / RUB will rise over the course of the year.

will grow in relation to 56-57?, that is, by the end of the year it will be higher - where you have blue marked levels 62-63.5? This is why questions arise.

Firstly, the range of 10 rubles is for a minute equal to the range of fluctuations in Euro in 1000 points! Is the forecast spread too wide?
You can give the same “forecast” as you give. Here is an example - “I predict a ruble range for 2018 of 50-60 rubles”

In general, I do not believe in growth in USD / RUB. Let's see how it really will be this year.
Thanks for the article.

• Alexander, for the forecast for the whole year, provided that the previous years were not so “stormy” in the range of 10 rubles, this is normal. Or do you think it is better to be like many “analysts” who try to give an accurate forecast, and then turn over 10 times a year?
  Otherwise, I completely agree with you, I do not believe in a strong weakening of the ruble. And the fact that the article is not about anything, I also agree)

Hello Konstantin! I am from Kazakhstan, your forecasts are always accurate, at least until today, it was so! We all often talk about the collapse of $, is it possible? Since we do not know in what currency to keep savings, so as not to lose ... if you answer, I will be grateful ... Thank you ..

• Hello Eileen. The situation in Kazakhstan does not seem to me well, but I do not adhere to the theory of the collapse of the dollar. I once wrote on this topic separately:

Last year I read with pleasure the article and comments of Mikhail and Konstantin) Sometimes it happens that reading discussions is no less useful than articles. Thank you!
Kostantin, do not delete Mikhail's comments, please)
Mikhail, be more restrained (although I am for freedom of speech)), and we will have more interesting comments to read!)

• I do not publish only what does not comply with the rules of commenting.

I think the forecast for the written oil will be $ 40-44 it will be hard for the ruble + a mistake in the elections President Putin will increase the sanctions within a year finishes the ruble Only after the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine will a gradual strengthening of the ruble

I don't understand what's the point in forecasting 55-65
let's say a person has rubles and he wants to buy dollars so as not to fly in ... or hand over the dollars and put rubles at interest ... or immediately rubles at interest ...
the essence is the same ... with the corridors written here, people who want to increase their capital will be at a loss.
because if the dollar rises in price, for example, then the current deposit rate in rubles will not return you the amount in dollars ... and vice versa ...

• Firstly, the forecast is given here for a whole year, and not for a short period, hence such a range! Secondly, no one here even thought to give investment advice, there is only general information on the annual movement, and where and in what currency you should invest is your own business.

Mikhail plus for the forecast. Thanks. Although everything is clear. It's a shame that with the increase in oil prices, the ruble did not react (remained the same), which means it fell. And God forbid oil prices will also fall, then the ruble will also fall sharply ... ..So invest your savings in the yuan, or buy syndicates in China. We will definitely not lose here.

• Thank you) The ruble hasn't really fallen! The ruble would have reacted with a serious strengthening to the growth of oil, if the Ministry of Finance had not bought up billions of currency to support the exchange rate. If suddenly oil starts to fall strongly and the ruble weakens, then the Ministry of Finance will throw these purchased surpluses on the market and prevent the ruble from falling sharply. The Ministry of Finance has serious sums at its disposal; they can change the value of currencies in one direction or another.

Good day! Konstantin please comment on the situation with the ruble on 04/12/2018, the connection with the Syrian events, if you convert into dollars or gold, your opinion is very important now ... Because there is a feeling of a critical situation!

• Hello, Elena. The Syrian events, like the recent sanctions against the oligarchs, had a very negative impact on the ruble and the Russian economy in general. But personally, I do not yet see a supercritical situation, it is happening as I predicted: the ruble exchange rate has moved away from unreasonably high values ​​and returned to its real range of 60-70. He did it, however, rather abruptly, due to the confluence of these two important fundamental factors, despite the increased oil price. As for the Syrian events, it all depends on what happens next. And it is difficult for me to assume this with high accuracy - I do not know what is in the heads of the heads of state. Now the situation is really tense, and this is reflected in the ruble exchange rate and the oil price.
  If you look at the technical analysis, then a “triple bottom” pattern has formed on the weekly chart, and if it works, the rate will move higher to the level of about 66-67.

  These sanctions are far from the toughest, so all these jumps are of a short-term nature with a gradual rollback to the area of ​​60, and possibly even lower. There are a whole bunch of factors that provide support for the ruble, so I would not hope for a rate of 66-67, as Konstantin writes. Of course, everything can change, but so far the reality is.

Now, with the ruble, what I described a year ago is happening. Everything is exactly as I wrote)

What's happening now:
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation directs additional oil and gas revenues to purchase foreign currency, obtained due to the higher oil price compared to the budget.
At the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance purchased currencies for 829 billion rubles. During 2018, the Ministry of Finance can purchase currency for about 2 trillion rubles. at oil prices of $ 54–55 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated at the end of December. At $ 60 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. And at 75-80?
If not for the purchase of the Ministry of Finance, the rate would now be 50-55. And not sanctions, not everything that Konstantin loves to write about could not radically affect the weakening of the ruble.
It is too early to talk about the 65-70 rate, I think that such a rate will not be this year, but 60-65 is quite real, although there is a high probability of going back - below 60, it all depends on the ratio of planned purchases of foreign currency and the cost of oil.

Hello dear analysts!
You, Konstantin and Mikhail, have got an interesting couple of opinions that “make” this thread)))
In general, I am a person - far from stock analyzes, especially independent ones. Therefore, I am interested in a competent opinion.
The question of the currency price is selfishly relevant for me. Probably now twirl your finger at your temple, but, as a person of traditional views, a provincial without a commercial streak, in order to save money, at the end of the year I bought dollars and euros for a decent amount for me. I took dollars just below 58. The goal is to preserve savings (well, at least I didn't buy bitcoin at 12)))).
At the peak of the jump, the dollars could not be sold, since I was leaving.
What do you think is worth selling now, tomorrow, for example, for the time being a little above 60?
I remember about my own responsibility when making a decision, but I need advice))) And what to store, maybe, really, in yuan?
Ohokhonyushkii ... Well, the country, as far as I can remember, is like a powder keg.

• Hello, Elena. My opinion is not to sell. 🙂

  Hello, Elena. It is difficult to advise something, I personally keep everything in rubles. The risk when buying dollars is very high, there are many factors that put pressure on the strengthening of the ruble. Now, for example, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the introduction of sanctions against this country will greatly affect the cost of oil, it will rise in price. And if the price of oil goes up, the inflow of dollars into the country will increase accordingly. The Ministry of Finance is now buying up billions of foreign currency, only this does not allow the ruble to go below 60, if the Ministry of Finance reduces the purchase of foreign currency, the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If, for example, oil prices rise to $ 85, then most likely the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If you are lucky and the value of the dollar remains at the same damage, then you will receive about 5-7% per year, which, in principle, can be comparable to inflation for this year, in the best case, you will save your money and possibly earn a little. But there is also a high probability of losing, since if the dollar rolls back to 58 you will lose% of inflation, and if it is below 58, then the losses will be much more serious, while you will be constantly nervous. Putting rubles in% you will get the same 7-8%, while you will feel more relaxed,% will compensate you for inflation and a little more will remain. In the current situation, the ruble will not go above 65, but it can easily roll back to 58, cardinal changes may occur within a year, but so far the picture is as follows.

Konstantin, especially for you, because you have been persistently writing for several years that the NWF is about to be exhausted, but this never happened. And then it turns out that it not only has not become empty, but has grown by 23.2%, in fact, what I was talking about.
The National Wealth Fund (NWF) in June 2018 grew by 23.2% and amounted to 4 trillion 839.26 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $ 77.11 billion, the last time we had such an amount in $ back in 2014. Do you still believe in SWF depletion?

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Everything happens with the ruble as I wrote in this forecast: the first jump took place after the presidential elections, the second (now) is taking place due to the strengthening of sanctions, and according to technical analysis, a very clear figure was obtained that predicts this jump (monthly chart, figure “ flag ”- the screen was attached on the forum), which worked. There are fundamental reasons for the growth, technical ones - there are also, the current leap, according to the rules of technical analysis, should raise the dollar rate to the region of 69.

So far, my prediction is coming true as never before (hello to Mikhail)).

Further, it all depends on the news background. It is likely that a certain correction will follow, a rollback of the rate back. This will be an opportune moment for those who want to buy dollars and euros. After that - growth again, perhaps more systematic. By the end of the year, I expect the rate to be at least around 70. Perhaps more, and perhaps less. It all depends on the current situation. For example, with the same sanctions: will there be a second, more “terrible” wave, which is expected in 90 days. How the Central Bank will behave, what will happen to oil, and so on.

“While my forecast is coming true as never before”
The key word here is never) As far as I remember, your predictions never came true, but here you might be lucky to guess, according to the theory of probability, sooner or later you would be right. At the beginning of the year, not you, not me, could not have known about future sanctions, in that situation the rate could not go above 65, if you pay attention, the growth was only due to the sanctions. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that last year and this year I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, but on their own they would not be able to raise the exchange rate above 65 this year, sanctions helped)
Now it is very difficult to predict anything, it all depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, if they stop buying foreign currency for a long time, then we will see a serious rollback, if they continue to buy in full, then it will be more difficult for the ruble to strengthen. We must not forget that August is considered the most difficult month for the ruble, then the exchange rate will stabilize. The sanctions announced in the future are quite serious, but it is not known whether they will be applied in full, or even applied at all.
I must agree that today your forecast looks realistic, let's see what happens next.

Oh, well, straight). Quite to themselves come true. And now it is especially accurate. Naturally, I assumed about the sanctions: foreign policy does not change, which means that the sanctions, as they have become tougher, will continue to be toughened.

But I am not writing this in order to show myself as "a tough analyst who can be trusted and followed unconditionally." Rather - just personally for you)).

The fact that no one doubted the sanctions, the point is which restrictions will be applied, and no one could have known about this at that time. The sanctions could be both softer and tougher than those that were introduced, I meant that. I do not exclude the possibility that the rate may fly above 70, but there is also a high probability of a rollback (this happened more than once) Let's see what happens next, another 3 months ahead.

Let's see, of course. So far, we get an average annual range of 60-70 with an upward trend (as I have written). At the same time, it may go beyond 70 by the end of the year or not by the end. The toughest sanctions are still planned for November, but already on the eve of them, the rate went up.

3. No, 60 and 62, in my opinion, will be gone. Perhaps 65, something in the area. Depends on how long he grows up.

Still, the ruble has more chances to fall against Russia, the Americans have already started an open economic war here and can put pressure on the Saudis to drop oil prices and start disconnecting from payments in dollars and other obstacles, and even we need to take into account the small competence of our leadership, I'm not saying that all sorts of provocations on the military fronts of Ukraine and Syria.

The Central Bank refused to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of December, oil under 80. The only counterbalance to the strengthening of the ruble is future sanctions, but many doubt that the previously announced restrictions will be adopted, most likely they will be softer. We expect the ruble to strengthen in the near future.

Today, the dollar is one of the world's major currencies. Entrepreneurs work with it, it is in it that ordinary citizens try to make savings. Naturally, the rate of this currency worries a lot. And today it is not at all difficult to track it promptly. If you have to sell or buy a dollar in Moscow in the near future, you can pick it up on our portal. Data on the main world currency is available to you around the clock.

How to find out the dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks?

It is not at all difficult to find out the dollar exchange rate in Moscow exchange offices today. For this you need:

1. Set the date that interests you in the search. You can select data for today, tomorrow or yesterday.
2. Wait until the program displays for you the dollar rate for today in, as well as in exchange offices.
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For what purposes can the data on the exchange rate be used?

The given data on the dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks are best used for preliminary calculations. It will allow you to determine the best bank for such transactions, as well as estimate how much rubles you need to make an exchange. Before the operation, it is recommended to contact directly the exchanger or the bank in order to clarify what currency they have in cash and whether the exchange rate has changed in this organization over the past hours.