Betting on political events in bookmakers. Betting on politics in russia Betting on politics

In recent years, betting on political events has become more and more popular. Many bookmakers have added marked markets to the line to keep the maximum number of users interested. As you know, there are much more gambling people than those interested in sports. In order to attract their attention, it is necessary to improve the services provided. One of these steps was the coverage of political events and various cultural events.

Since the formation of urban communities in ancient Greece, citizens have been actively involved in political activities. Subsequently, politics became one of the most important components of the life of the population, which led to the emergence of various state systems. Each country has certain characteristics and traditions, so the forms of government vary significantly. At the moment, various political systems are known, each with its own pros and cons. It is impossible to define unequivocally a universal system suitable for every state. The political situation is periodically corrected, which entails changes in the life of society.

Some bookmaker users do not want to get involved with betting on political events, as they believe that the election results can be rigged. We must not forget that match-fixing is also possible in sports. If in large and popular championships such a probability is minimized, in regional championships "agreements" are quite possible. A similar situation is typical for political events.

For example, the presidential elections attract a lot of attention, the activities of politicians are monitored by the media, outside observers and voters. The result will depend directly on the successful actions and performances of the candidates. If elections are held for lower-level bodies, then the “right” candidates can be helped to achieve success. Ballot stuffing, incorrect vote count and other violations at polling stations are not excluded.

Types of bets on political events

Markets may differ depending on the bookmaker's office. However, in most bookmakers, you can find the following popular outcomes:

• winner of the elections: it is proposed to put not only on the triumphant of the "presidential race", but also on the elections of the mayor of London, Paris, New York and other major cities;
• changes in the legislation of states: in recent years, a large number of referendums have been held, in which citizens vote for amendments to basic laws. For example, the separation of Scotland from Great Britain, the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union, there are many rumors about the possible disconnection of Catalonia and other moments;
• percentage of votes: BC clients need to determine whether the candidate will be able to get more votes than the established value;
• who will become the next party leader: at this rate, it is important to understand how the leader is determined in order to make the correct prediction;
• gender of the future president, mayor, party leader: it is necessary to analyze the possibilities of candidates and identify the most promising men or women;
• in some bookmakers, you can find rare bets on the possible resignation of the president, the dissolution of parliaments, a second round of voting and other markets.

How to bid on a policy

In the process of analysis, it is necessary to pay attention to the rating of politicians and parties. It is not only the current positions of the candidates that are important, but also the dynamics themselves. To do this, you need to familiarize yourself with a few recent public polls. They are often run by various publishers and resources. Based on the opinion of citizens, one can judge the popularity of the candidates presented in the elections. However, it is important to understand that poll and election results may differ. Citizens of all ages and social groups are interviewed, and certain categories of citizens are more active in elections. For example, young people may ignore them, while pensioners try to participate in the political life of the country and vote regularly.

It is quite difficult to place online sports betting in which the bettor does not understand at all. Likewise, betting on elections in unfamiliar countries can become an ordinary guessing game. Domestic media provide information about the political situation in many states, but it does not always correspond to reality. Therefore, if the user of the bookmaker bets on politics, then it is necessary to study the resources of the respective country.

Candidate actions and debate are critical to shaping the image of a politician in the eyes of voters. An extensive election campaign can be carried out, great attention is paid to active speeches, leaflets and slogans have been developed, but the population has not become familiar with them. Another candidate spoke confidently on television, was able to answer the attacks of competitors and questions from citizens. This is the kind of policy that voters will vote for.

Before betting, you need to get as much information as possible, study the latest news, familiarize yourself with the speeches of candidates, their interviews. In the process of answering questions, politicians may drop some phrases that will be extremely negatively perceived by citizens. Also, an uncertain performance can cause a backlash from opponents, which will also lower the candidate's rating.

Individual bookmakers have their own view of setting odds and assessing the advantage of certain candidates. Therefore, it is possible to find “forks” between several bookmakers, which should be used wisely. For example, it is not uncommon for one of the contenders to have an undeniable advantage over his opponents, but several public appearances or debates have reduced his chances of winning. The bookmaker responds in a timely manner and raises the odds on the former favorite. If preliminary bets were made, then later you can make a profit even before the start of voting.

Where to bet on a political outcome

Sports bets are accepted at all bookmakers. If the client wants to diversify the betting process and choose events that are not related to sports, then this can be difficult. Not every bookmaker offers a large number of non-sports events, and the list of them leaves much to be desired. To decide where to bet on politics, you need to independently get acquainted with the lines of bookmakers and choose the most suitable option for yourself.

Bookmakers offer betting on the most current political events. Thus, it is possible to choose from several markets. For example, it is possible to bet on the name and gender of the next president, as well as to which party the future leader of the state belongs, and others, on the presidential elections in the United States.

Output

People are interested in politics to varying degrees. Some pay great attention to the study of the political situation in various countries, read specific literature, study the latest news. Others participate in the political life of the state, run for various posts, and study the intricacies of politics in practice. Someone just watches a variety of programs on TV and is also up to date with the latest news. Most of the population is politically active, so bookmakers could not ignore this fact. Among the mass of people, there are sure to be a few people who are willing to risk their own money for additional profit.

For some users, waiting for the result for a long time can be difficult. However, the advantage of such bets is the availability of a large amount of information. Citizens read and listen to news every day, so they keep abreast of current events. Awareness of the current situation in the political arena will make it possible to make more accurate forecasts and profit from bets. The main task of the bettor will be to find the most profitable odds and a timely bet, since quotes for obvious events are going down rather quickly.

In Russia, it may be prohibited to place bets on the results of elections in the country - such a proposal was made by the Ministry of Finance. The bill has been published on the official portal of legal information. According to it, the Russians will also not be able to bet on the outcome of the referendums and any events that may be associated with them. The department does not name the reason for such tightening. However, the ban does not apply to elections in other countries.

The betting market experts interviewed by Kommersant FM did not see the logic in the Finance Ministry's proposal, and this is not the ministry's first such initiative, Konstantin Makarov, president of the Bingo Boom betting company, said: “Quite often, the Finance Ministry comes out with an initiative to prohibit betting on certain outcomes of events. It was forbidden for exchange rates, but, for example, you can take on metal rates. Now a number of bills are being considered, where it is forbidden to place bets on a number of other events. Why it is impossible for the elections, it is even difficult for me to comment. I can't find a reasonable explanation. "

Abroad, bets on the outcome of political events are very popular. For example, the last US presidential election was the largest non-sporting event for British bookmakers. They accepted more than 50 thousand bets on the outcome of the struggle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. This event overshadowed even the referendum in Scotland and the appointment of a new British cabinet.

Russians also place bets on foreign political events, but they are practically not interested in the internal “kitchen”, noted Dmitry Malkov, an expert at the bookmaker market, former CEO of the Fonbet bookmaker: some foreign events. The last thing I saw was when there was a presidential election in the United States, where rates were accepted down to the states, how which electors would vote. In Russia, in general, as far as I remember, no one really took bets on elections. It's not about intrigue, there is always intrigue - you can take not just for a victory, but for a percentage. I just don't want to get involved with the state and politics. Taking bets on some political things, it turns out that, willingly or unwillingly, you come under the gaze of the state - this time, and secondly, they can always say: 'yeah, they could somehow influence this.'

The new bill of the Ministry of Finance specifies what rates and bets can be concluded in bookmakers. They want to include the results of sports competitions, horse races at the hippodrome and entertainment events that are broadcast on the air of TV channels.

Bookmakers have long gone beyond accepting bets on sports events. After all, not all gambling people are sports fans. For some time now, each bookmaker began to include bets on politics, weather, show business and some others in its line.

There are also quite curious bets, for example, that it will snow or rain on a certain day and in a certain area. For example, BC William Hill invites you to bid on which items will be the most popular gifts for the upcoming Christmas.

The relevance of betting on politics

One of the first unsportsmanlike events on which bookmakers began to accept bets were political events, which include elections, referendums and other types of voting. For example, bettors were asked to predict who will become the next US president after Barack Obama resigns.

The bets are made not only on a specific person, but also on what gender he will be. Naturally, men have more chances in this case. A large number of bettors were betting on a referendum on the independence of Scotland.

In addition to politics, they also bet on events of a secular nature. For example, you could try to guess what name the newborn representative of the British royal family will receive. The line also includes such events as "will there be a divorce in any celebrity family." For example, Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie.

Bookmaker experts often cover the life of royal families. In one of the offices, it was asked to guess in which social network the representative of the royal court of Britain would post his next message. The favorites here are, of course, the most popular Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

Non-sporting events include changes in the weather on a specific day at a specific location. Often bookmakers offer to bet on the fact that it will snow on Christmas night.

There are even events related to life on other planets. So, the offices offer to guess the answer to the eternal question "Is there life on Mars?" and “When will the representatives of our planet first land on the“ red planet? ”.

But when it comes to politics, they prefer to go to the kitchen and hold debates there. And in vain, because most bookmakers have been accepting bets on politics for several years, where every sofa expert could test his knowledge and make money at the same time. We will show you how to do this.

Features and secrets of internet betting on politics

If the features and secrets of online betting on different sports do overlap in some way, then in politics everything is not quite so:

• You can bet on sports a week, a day, an hour before the match, and even during it. In politics, all bets are long-term and are calculated for several months, and some even for years: the new president did not have time to warm up his seat, and the bookmakers are already offering bets on the one who will replace him;
• There are no complicated names in betting on politics: no Asian handicaps, totals and races up to ten points for you. Usually, everything is much simpler: the bookmaker asks a question that is understandable even to a first grader, and we choose one of several answer options - as if we are passing a test;
• Opinion polls don't come close to the number of people betting on politics. In order not to lose money, bookmakers change the odds and thus show who people support the most;
• Sometimes bookmakers pay out winnings in advance. The situation with the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power in 2016 turned out to be especially loud: even before the results of the presidential elections in the United States were announced, the office paid winnings to all the players who had bet on Hillary Clinton - and she lost.

Today bets

The types of bets on politics are also very different from those offered by bookmakers on sports. For example, in we can bet on the number of goals in a match and the player who will score next, while in politics everything is limited to a question and several prepared answer options. Now you will see for yourself.

For the winner of the presidential or mayoral elections

Although the greatest excitement is created around the presidential elections, in addition to them, you can bet on who will become the next mayor of a major city: London, Berlin, Paris, New York. The bookmaker offers the names of the candidates, and we choose the one we expect to see in the new chair.

For parliamentary elections

We bet on which party wins the elections and takes more seats in parliament - bookmakers give a list of participants, from which we choose the most likely winners.

In Britain, where most of the major European bookmakers come from, the leader of the ruling party, as a rule, becomes the prime minister, so we can bet both on the next party leader and on the future head of government, or, for example, on re-elections or holding a referendum (he will or not).

Changes in legislation

Bookmakers can ironically offer bets on changes in the gambling legislation in the state or, for example, on the legalization of medical marijuana. This also includes the results of referendums in which residents of the country decide on independence (separation of Scotland from Great Britain, Catalonia from Spain) or participation in a political structure (withdrawal of Britain and Greece from the European Union).

In such cases, bookmakers usually ask, for example, “Will the UK leave the European Union or not?”, And we answer “yes” or “no”.

By the percentage of votes collected

This bet is similar to total. For example, a bookmaker asks the question “will the ruling party of the country gain more than half of the votes in the next elections?”, And we answer “yes” or “no”, as if this is the total more and the total is less. In addition to betting on elections, the offices accept bets on the percentage of votes collected "for" or "against" in referendums.

To the floor of the president, prime minister, mayor

When there are many candidates for the position, bookmakers suggest betting not on a specific surname on the door of the office, but on something less risky - the gender of a politician just fits this “something”. In this case, we also have two options to choose from: a man or a woman.

British bookmakers are especially active in terms of betting on politics, because in their country there is a parliamentary monarchy: there is a secular government of elected politicians and there is a royal family, whose power is inherited. Thanks to this, bookmakers make it possible to bet on all sorts of little things:

• will the prince's bride celebrate Christmas at the castle or not;
• what gender will be and what name will be given to the next baby in the royal family, around the time it is born;
• when and where the wedding will take place with the participation of a member of the royal family, which artists will perform at it, which guests will be invited, what outfits the bride and groom will wear and which design house will sew them.

However, such attention is paid not only to members of the British royal family. For example, after the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections in the United States, bookmakers offered whatever bets on him: whether he will leave office himself or as a result of impeachment, how soon will this impeachment be announced which country the president will visit first and will attach it to White house sign "Trump" or not.

Policy betting strategies

Since bets on politics are usually long-term, no progressive strategy is needed, such as: if the bet does not pass, we bet twice as much on the next one and on the odds of at least 2 - this can only be used if there is a maximum of a week between events, and not months and years.

We will show how they work with examples:

Fixed amount. We decide to place bets of one hundred rubles - so we spend not a penny more, not a penny less;

Fixed percentage. We count 3% of the starting bank (money that we are ready to spend on betting) in five thousand - it turns out one hundred and fifty rubles. We spend only them, even if we now have three thousand or already ten on our account;

Floating percentage. We take 2% of the total bank, taking into account its changes. If there are three thousand on the account, the size of the bet will be one hundred and fifty rubles, if you have accumulated ten thousand - we bet two hundred rubles.

However, it is still possible not to lose money regardless of how the political situation ends. For this, professional bettors use surebets.

Forks

Imagine that a political event is a fork, and every outcome to it is its prongs. So the surebet is when we bet on all the outcomes-prongs from different bookmakers, depending on where the coefficient is higher. And no matter what rate ends up passing, we earn on the difference in quotes.

The difference arises from the fact that bookmakers calculate the probability of each outcome differently, and the more money the players have bet, the lower the odds will be. There are special services that look for surebets in different offices, but the rates on politics are much less than on any sport, so you have to look for yourself.

Therefore, we take the formula B = 1 ÷ K 1 + 1 ÷ K 2 + 1 ÷ K 3 and decipher it:
B - the value of the plug;
K - coefficient for each outcome: first, second, third ...

If the value of the surebet is more than one, according to the formula P = (1 ÷ K ÷ B) × C we calculate the size of the bet for each outcome:
Р - the size of the bet;
K - coefficient for the outcome;
B - the value of the plug;
С - the amount of bets on all outcomes (money that we allocated for the event).

For surebets, it is better to choose events like the gender of the next child in the royal family or elections, where only two or three people are considered real contenders. There are no more than four prongs in a table fork - so take events with a maximum of four outcomes.

To place bets on politics, you first need to choose a bookmaker and register with it, and then find a suitable event and make an accurate forecast of its outcome. How to cope with all this, we will now tell you.

Bookmaker selection and registration

B are of two types: legal and illegal. The legal ones have a license, they pay taxes and work through the Interactive Betting Center (), an intermediary between offices and players. On the Center's website, bettors can replenish an account and withdraw money, view the history of funds transfers and contact support. Bookmakers without a license have neither the right to work in Russia, nor guarantees the safety of clients' money, because their sites are blocked.

It is considered one of the best legal bookmakers. Here's how to start betting in it:

Event selection and analysis

Try to place your bets on political issues that you understand, or at least try to understand. Even if you consider yourself an expert and are ready to say with confidence that such and such a bet will take place in such and such an event, still analyze the situation in as much detail as possible, taking into account various factors:

The personality of politicians and promises. The masses do not read the program of changes that the candidates are planning to introduce - they look at the candidate for the post and listen to him, therefore public speeches and debates play a very important role in the distribution of votes in the elections;

Rating of candidates or parties. Do not pay attention to public opinion polls: they cover a maximum of several thousand people, and tens or hundreds of millions live in the country. Look for open information from analytical agencies that work with big data and research social networks that are used by millions of citizens, not a select couple of thousand.

One of the main reasons for Donald Trump's victory is the emphasis of his advertising campaign on social media, although opinion polls showed a serious advantage in favor of Hillary Clinton. Now guess which agencies predicted Trump's victory;

Objectivity of the media. You cannot read about the referendums in Britain only on domestic sites, just like you cannot read about them only in British newspapers (but it is advisable to speak English, although you can use a translator). As a rule, each media outlet adheres to certain views and supports a particular party, so you need to use many sources to collect a complete picture of the situation, fully assess it and make an accurate bet.

The bets on politics are long-term, so take your time: the odds in half a day will most likely not drop sharply, so it is better to take the time to analyze the event as closely as possible.

Gather information, make a thesis and, like an artist, step back and look at the resulting picture from the side. Perhaps then you can see the connections between the key points that will help you decide which bet to place.

Choosing a strategy

Usually bettors allocate the same amount for a policy that they bet on sports, so you can use any variant of Flat that we have already described, or try to find surebets. Some players prefer to bet on politics more than usual, but the disadvantage of this approach is that the bets are long-term, and over a long period of time anything can happen, including not in favor of the bettor.

If you use Flat, we advise you to look for value bets. These are the outcomes in the probability of which you are very confident and think that the bookmaker gives an overestimated coefficient on them. If your forecast is really "iron", then it turns out that the office allows you to earn more than you should win.

As with surebets, services are bad at looking for political bets with an edge, so do everything with pens. The probability (B) in percentage, which the bookmaker estimates the outcome, can be calculated according to the formula B = 1 ÷ K × 100, and the coefficient (K), which corresponds to the probability predicted by you, calculate as K = 1 ÷ B ÷ 100.

For example, a bookmaker offers a coefficient of 2.07, which means that he estimates the reality of the outcome with a probability of 1 ÷ 2.07 × 100 = 48.3%. You think that the probability is 60% - then the coefficient that you would give would be 1 ÷ 60 × 100 = 1.67. Apparently, either the office underestimates the chances, or you overestimate.

Underwater rocks

Sometimes it is not a bad analysis of an event that hinders making money on political bets, but pitfalls that players simply did not know about. But you will know:

• Western bookmakers spend much more on politics than Eastern European ones, so overweight bets come across there more often, but the odds are initially more accurate. If you look at the quotes for a long time, you can bet in the wrong place, but an excellent situation arises for surebets: you take one outcome in some British office, and the second in a company from the CIS;
• There are almost no bets on Russian politics, usually bookmakers affect first-world countries and mostly English-speaking ones. For this reason, you will either have to tighten up English, or very often use a translator, because information from Russian sources that either translate or see everything from their bell tower is definitely not enough for a good analysis;
• The stakes on politics are so long-term that from the moment you make them until something happens, there can be three coups d'état. This is difficult to predict, so it is not worth betting for several years: take a maximum for a year, and best of all for a couple of months;
• In principle, it is difficult to make predictions, because on the political scene a lot of things are happening behind the scenes - if you watched the series "House of Cards", then you know what we are talking about. If you do not take into account this feature of betting on politics, forget about other pitfalls and spend a large amount, you can generally be left without money.

Bookmakers schedule their bets on politics more clearly than on any sport, but this is offset by how difficult it is to predict what will happen in a few months or even years. If you think that you are quite well versed in politics and can regularly and accurately assess the reality of various events, we are happy for you. Follow the advice we've given and your chances of placing an accurate bet will only increase.