Working strategy for basketball without catching up. Win-win bets

Basketball is the best ball game. This, of course, is not indisputable, the expression is attributed to the commentator of the TV channel "Match TV", the famous basketball player Vladimir Gomelsky in the past. Be that as it may, no one will argue that basketball is an entertaining and dynamic game in which everything can change at any moment. We will try to make money on this volatility of basketball.

Basketball swing

Basketball as a betting sport is popular among players and enjoys well-deserved attention from bookmakers. The latter is expressed in a solid "painting" of the line even for such specific markets as the championships in Finland or Poland. The popularity among players is evidenced by the presence of all kinds of betting strategies in basketball. One of the most famous among them is the catch-up to the winner in quarters.

As is known, basketball game comprises 4 quarters 10 (in the American and Philippine leagues - 12) minutes. As with any other sport, each particular match has a favorite and an underdog. Sometimes this is a very pronounced favorite - so much so that his victory is estimated with a coefficient of 1.05, and the handicap is 25-30 points.

This happens in every sport - let's remember the notorious "Real P1". But if in football the favorite, as a rule, confidently dominates throughout the entire match, then in basketball such a picture does not occur very often - even if we are talking about the favorite, whose probability of winning is estimated by the bookmakers at 1.05.

For example, let's take two matches with the participation of the "heavy" favorite in the face of the Spanish "Barcelona" - football and basketball. On March 1, the Spanish grand (1st place in the national championship) played host to the modest Sporting (19th place in the championship). Barça's win was not in doubt from bookmakers, which was supported by the odds of 1.05. Barcelona fully met the expectations of football analysts by beating Sporting CP 6-1. At the same time, the Catalans confidently won in both halves: 3-1 in the first (the hosts' victory was estimated at 1.22) and 3-0 in the second (estimated at 1.15).

Basketball "Barca", although it now occupies the 5th place in the Spanish championship (3 victories separate them from the first place "Valencia"), is considered one of the favorites of the tournament and has no less stellar composition than the football one.

On February 12, Barcelona hosted Manresa, which ranks last in the Spanish Championship. The chances of Catalan basketball players to win were estimated even higher than their football teammates - the odds for winning did not exceed 1.03, and the handicap was (-19). Did something incredible happen? No. Barcelona confidently won with a difference of 20 points (92:72), breaking through, albeit back to back, a minus handicap.

Now let's see how events developed in this match in terms of quarters. Barça started very confidently, breaking through the odds set by the bookmakers (-5) in the first quarter with a large margin (33-23). After a convincing start of the favorite, the bookmakers reduced Barcelona's negative handicap by the 2nd quarter to (-2.5), but it was also broken (22:18). The teams left for the big break with a score of 55:41. During the break bookmakers in the third quarter, the Catalans were again the favorite with a handicap (-2).

But in the third quarter of the match, everything went a little differently, as the BK analysts expected. “Manresa” managed to impose a fight on an eminent opponent, and as a result reduced the difference from 14 to 12 points, winning the third quarter with a 2 point advantage. The odds for the victory of "Manresa" in the 3rd quarter was 2.3. In the final segment, everything fell into place, and Barcelona again won by 8 points, breaking through the minus handicap of the 4th quarter and confidently winning the match.

Basketball live betting strategy in quarters is based on the fact that in one of the quarters the team will either be able to keep their handicap, or even be able to win at least one quarter, like Manresa in the 3rd quarter. This system is called Humpty Dumpty.

Why does it work?

Followers of the strategy argue that even the weakest team is able to win at least one quarter. Or keep a positive head start. Skeptics argue - what prevents a strong team from taking all quarters? Why should she lose in at least one of them, if she is simply stronger than her opponent?

Let's figure it out.

Let's go back to the Barcelona - Sporting football match. What a coach could do"Sporting" in the first half when the score was 3-1? Stand at the edge of the field and try to shout out to the players. What does a basketball coach do when his team starts losing in the first quarter by 10 or even 15 points? That's right - he takes time out... He takes his board, gathers the players around him and shows them what needs to be changed.

Modern basketball - this is a chess game, in which more than 150 different combinations. The attack alone can be played by such combinations as zone break, "eight", combinational attack, attack "give and go" (pass followed by a rapid dash to the ring), attack through the center, from a long distance, and so on.

The uniqueness of basketball is that a coach can take a time-out at any time in order to change the game of his team, to give an indication of a winning combination. Neither in football nor in hockey the coach has the opportunity to influence the game in such a way during the match. All this leads to the fact that the situation on the site can change at any moment, sometimes in the most drastic way. That's why basketball is called"Swing".

Note what happens in NBA matches when a team misses a 0-6 or 0-8 sprint. The coach immediately takes a time-out, after which the team usually returns to the game, winning back the advantage.

Another important point is psychology. It is difficult to maintain concentration all the time when your team is winning at 20 or even 30 points. In one of the quarters, it is quite possible, if not to relax, then to slightly reduce the grip in defense, and the leaders to fall into individual actions. An opponent for whom “flying” at 20-30 points (and even in front of his fans) is a real shame, will certainly take advantage of this, and, if not completely demoralized, will try to impose a fight, or even return to the game. We see such examples in every round of every championship..

Another important aspect is the desire of coaches to save leaders starting five, when the result of the match is no longer in doubt. This approach is widely practiced on both sides of the ocean: in San Antonio before the start of the final quarter, Parker and Leonard can sit on the bench, in Dallas - Nowitzki, in Moscow CSKA, convincingly defeating Parma - all the starting five, so that the young the players were able to prove themselves and disrupt the applause of the audience. This is especially true in the second half of the season for European clubs, in parallel with the home championship forced to play in European competition. That is why we often see how in the last quarter the team that lost the entire match takes revenge.

All this allows us to say with confidence that the quarter won by the underdog is not just interesting statistical information, not an accident, but a real regularity of modern basketball. Bookmakers are well aware of this., setting limits on bets on quarters (especially on the last quarter), or even completely blocking the accounts of players who have learned the basics of basketball catch-up. You too can make money on the basketball swing if you follow a few simple rules.

How to bet on the Humpty Dumpty system

To play on the Humpty Dumpty system, you need to find a match, the bets on which will be received live.
Some Humpty Dumpty followers argue that matches should be selected based on the following criteria:

A) The team should play better in the second half than in the first.

B) Studying the statistics of the team, you need to make sure that it does not have a tendency to "drain" all quarters

V) In head-to-head matches, none of the teams must lose all quarters of more than two matches

G) The team does not have a tendency to major losses in all quarters, except for one

These rules may work for European basketball, but they don't work for the NBA. An example is the game between Orlando and the New York Knicks that took place on the night of March 1–2. In the first round match in December, the Niks lost all 4 quarters to Orlando, but in the March meeting they took a convincing revenge, losing only the last quarter and winning the match 101: 90 (the pre-match line gave odds 2, 2 for the victory of New York "And odds (+1) in quarters).

Through careful analysis, we find a match of equal teams or a game in which underdog may put up fierce resistance to the favorite. In doing so, we pay special attention to:

1. - German championship
2. - Philippines Championship
3. - NBA
4. - French championship
5. -champion Italy
6. -championships of Finland and Sweden
7. -Czech Championship

After the start of the match live, we watch the first quarter, and we bet on the underdog in case of his loss, or to one of the teams that lost a quarter, in case of a game of equal teams. If the underdog wins the first quarter, we are out of the game and never bet on the favorite - there will be too much negative handicap on him in the next quarters. If the “heavy” favorite lost to the underdog in the 1st and 2nd quarters, then in the third, the minus handicap for his victory in the quarter can reach (-10) points.

Before entering the game, we break our bank into three parts. On the second quarter we bet 15% of the bank, on the third quarter - 30% of the bank, on the 4th quarter - 55% of the bank. These numbers are not an axiom, and you can break the bank at your discretion in such a way that at each next step you will recoup the lost money and make a profit. Just don't forget that the team often wins in the last quarter.

In this case, you can enter the game not from the second quarter, but from the 3rd or even from the 4th. In this case, we can start immediately with 30% of the bank or 55% of the bank, or wait for the team to lose in the first three quarters of the match in order to load the standard 15% of the bank into the last quarter.

Through careful analysis, you you will always find 2-3 matches a day in European or Asian championships, and 1-2 matches in the NBA, which will be suitable for betting. On weekends, when the next rounds of the European national championships take place, there will be many times more of them.

Basketball is one of the most popular and beautiful sports. This fast-paced game attracts bettors looking to make money. Many players use different strategies. Dogon is very popular in basketball.

Let's figure out how to apply the strategy correctly. There are several types of this technique.

Quarter Catch

This strategy is designed for LIVE bets. Any basketball game consists of four quarters. Each lasts 10 minutes (in the American and Philippine leagues - 12).

According to statistics, only in isolated cases one team wins all quarters. Even the favorite is inferior to the inveterate outsider in at least one of them. We bet on the underdog to win in the first quarter. If the bet loses, then you need to double the amount for a similar outcome for the second, etc. Bettor should keep betting until he gets the desired result.

For example, consider an NBA match between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks. The hosts are considered clear favorites, so the bookmaker offers to bet on their victory at a coefficient of 1.38.

But we are not interested in the outcome of the meeting. We bet on the victory of "Milwaukee Bucks" (outsider) in the first quarter of 1000 rubles at the odds of 2.3. Defeat. The next bet will be 2,000 rubles at the odds of 2.2. Failure again. We have to double the rate again to 4000 rubles (coefficient 2.3). In the third quarter, the guests won. The bet is played.

Let's calculate the profit: 4000 * 2.3 = 9200 - 4000 (our rate) - 3000 (lost bets) = 2200 rubles of net profit.

If you run into a match in which the favorite has won all quarters, then you can continue to lead the selected team. The main principle is to double the rate until an acceptable result is achieved.

Study the statistics carefully. Avoid betting on teams that constantly drain all quarters.

Why the strategy works

• Trainer tips. What can the coach of a football club do if his players lose in the first half? Stand at the sideline and try to shout out to the players. What does a basketball coach do? Quite right - it takes a time-out. The coach points out to the players mistakes, gives specific instructions and encourages them. Basketball is a battle of tactics. Each team uses over a hundred different combinations: zone defense, eight, attack through the center, etc. In this sport, the coach, with the help of time-outs and an unlimited number of substitutions, can radically change the course of the match.
• Psychology. It is difficult to maintain concentration if you have a significant advantage over your opponent (20-30 points). If players feel that victory is not going anywhere, they often slow down. Outsiders use this, so they try to win at least one of the quarters in order to avoid shame.
• Rotation. If the match is going well, the coach can rotate the roster - to save the players from the starting five for other meetings. A similar technique is practiced in the NBA. Coaches often put them on the leader's bench after the third quarter, giving newcomers an opportunity to prove themselves.

This is also true for European giants (especially in the second half of the season), who are forced to compete not only in national championships, but also in European competitions.

Catch up on totals

Most bookmakers accept basketball quarter bets. For a successful game at a distance, we recommend choosing an office with the lowest margin. If the odds for an equal outcome are 1.9, then you can deal with this bookmaker (ideally, if the quotes are 1.95). Usually the average total of bookmakers for a quarter is 49.5.

For example, we have chosen a match between team "A" and team "B". We put 1100 rubles on TB in the first quarter at a coefficient of 1.9. We are losing. We double the next bet - 2200 rubles (odds 1.9). Defeat again. We double again - the bet is 4400 at the odds of 1.9. Victory.

Let's calculate the net profit: 4400 * 1.9 = 8360 - 4400 (our rate) - 3300 (lost rates) = 660 rubles of net profit.

Better to bet on TB in NBA matches. This is a popular tournament, so the betting margin in the line is minimal.

Let's analyze the statistics of teams' performances in the NBA:

In the given example, the teams are highlighted, which often break the total over in the second quarter.

An interesting situation in terms of indicators in the third quarters.

There are many promising markets here. "Phoenix" stands out against the general background. The team has 25 TB matches in the third quarter. Golden State is slightly behind - 24 riding games.

The following figure highlights the teams that significantly add in the ending.

Indiana stands out against the general background. The ending of the meetings is almost always carried out by its players on the TB.

If you carefully analyze the statistics and choose the right team for bets, then the bettor will have a stable profit.

Odd or even

You can bet on even or odd on any game. The disadvantage is that this approach is more like tossing a coin (heads or tails) than an intellectual battle with the bookmaker. It is impossible to predict the probability of a certain event at a distance.

If you are betting odd or even in quarters, then get ready for the fact that every tenth coupon will be a losing one.

Catching up with a certain team, doubling your bets if you lose? You can run into a series of 10-15 defeats in a row. Wait for the team to play 5-7 matches with one result, then bet on the opposite.

Outcomes

By the outcome we mean the standard P1 and P2. Some pros recommend playing 1X and X2 to win on a tie. The coefficients differ not critically. But the player will save himself from unpleasant surprises.

A beginner will definitely ask - are there draws in basketball? This sport excludes a draw - an overtime is assigned, in which the winner is determined. A beginner needs to carefully read the rules of the office. Some bookmakers calculate bets solely based on the results of regular time.

Dogon usually means predictions for outsiders - it is too rare for one team to win all matches in a row. You wait for the winning streak of one of the favorites, then bet in each game against him. The main principle is to double the amount until you get the desired result.

You can also bet on the favorite. But you will be faced with modest quotes - you will need a more serious bankroll to catch up. For example, if you bet on the favorite with the odds of 1.35, you will have to constantly triple the amount.

Conclusion

You don't have to use quarter-on-quarter. You can bet on the results of entire matches. But playing at certain intervals of the meeting will help you increase your deposit faster. Remember that careful analysis of the event is the key to success.

Theory of catch-up strategy for basketball betting. Previously, this strategy was successfully used exclusively for playing in casinos. Today betters use it effectively in bookmaker bets. With this universal strategy, each player can place bets on the outcomes with the same probability.

The better needs to double the size of his bet after each time the previous one loses until he can win at some bet. Thus, the gambler needs to win back the lost funds, and then make a profit. The player should deposit a good amount of money in advance in the game account before he starts using the catch-up strategy for basketball bets. This is done so that there is enough funds to double the size of subsequent bets in the event of a series of losses. It is recommended to have a stock of 10-12 bets.

Experienced players can place bets on outcomes that are quoted at odds from 1.80. Beginners are advised to bet on selections with odds of 2.00 or higher. This is explained by the fact that with the odds of 1.80 with a doubling of the bet size, the amount may not be enough to win back the previous losses. As you can imagine, it is important to correctly determine the size of the next bet according to the strategy. It turns out that with odds up to 2.00, in the event of a long series of failures, there will come a moment when it will be necessary to bet an amount that is more than twice as large as the previous one.

Applying the strategy of catching up in quarters for bets on winning a basketball match, you should bet when in a basketball match the team on which the bettor is betting is inferior to the favorite. It should be noted that the inferior team should not be in the role of an obvious outsider. As a rule, bookmakers set odds for such a team from 2.00.

Due to the fact that the favorite of the meeting does not play all four quarters at his maximum capabilities, the underdog has a good opportunity to take advantage of the opponent's fatigue and, thus, try to win one of the quarters. It's hard to say which quarter will be lucky for the outsider. Therefore, this strategy will help the bettor to make a profit by betting on an outsider to win in the quarters.

The disadvantages of the strategy include, firstly, the bookmaker's limits, and secondly, the significant size of the player's bankroll. On the positive side, with this strategy the player has a fairly high probability of winning.

Basketball betting strategy in practice. Let's say you bet € 20 on the underdog Cleveland Cavaliers to win in the first quarter at 2.40. Let's imagine that the bet is won, so you don't need to bet further in this match. Therefore, you are looking for another basketball match.

In the event that the bet still loses, then you must bet 40 euros on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win in the second quarter. If you lose again, then raise the bet to 80 euros and bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win. And if you lose again, then bet 160 euros in the fourth quarter. For example, this time you won, which means you earned 160 × 2.40 = 384 euros. The net profit will be 384 - 160 = 224 euros. Since the previous bets were losing, you lost 20 + 40 + 80 = 140 euros. In total, your profit will be 224 - 140 = 84 euros.

Scope of the catch-up strategy for basketball betting. Bookmakers can upset many players with limits. So, for example, the size of your next bet on this strategy may exceed the bookmaker's limit. Because of this, you will not be able to place a bet of the required size in order to gain profit. In addition to limits, also pay attention to the level of odds - bet at bookmakers with high odds in Live.

The research was carried out within the framework that I wrote about before.

Users have a lot of questions as to what the number of levels of catch-up may not be enough if they fail in betting.

Let me remind you that according to the classical theory of bets on the "" system, up to 8 levels are made. Somewhere more, somewhere less, they adjust the rates. Now I will not write about this, because the topic has already been analyzed. According to my proposed theory of betting on basketball, up to 4 levels of catch-up are planned. Many betting and sports fans disagree with this.

How can you reduce?

Exceptional analytics and system knowledge. There are no secret tricks, naked statistics.

To write this post, I analyzed the match that came to my hand, literally 15 minutes ago (!). Those. I didn’t wait half a day, I didn’t "sand" the matches... This was the second match that fell on the eye. Yes, you could pick up the odds. higher by the winning rate. But she entered from the first bet, so I'm not really worried) So,

I took screenshots as I played, I didn't use Photoshop. You can check the data.

What is the essence of the decline

Watch the progress of the matches, which usually go live from 1-2 to 10 pieces for basketball. We are interested in matches in which two teams play. previous face-to-face meetings were about equally effective. Or matches in which one team beat another more often, and in the current match in live, the first quarter is lost (!). Those. it is quite natural that he will take the second or third. Not necessarily the entire match. And one of the quarters. Sometimes it happens that the first quarter is drained from surprise, not gathered, or a bunch of other reasons. But it is very likely that the team, which usually takes the upper hand over the other, will win one of the quarters.

As a result of this selection, it is possible to stop at 2-3 levels of the catch-up maximum. And most often it comes in 1, 2 times. Try it.

Match - example

Let's go back to our match selected as an example - Caserta - Milan... Here is the first screen.

Seeing a situation in which Milan is clearly the favorite. I made the first screen. Caserta somehow miraculously took the first quarter. Milan will play the match later, but the first quarter fits perfectly into our system. I will show the statistics of the head-to-head meetings of these teams. Here you can clearly see who is the favorite.

I boldly made a bet on the second quarter of this game with a bet on winning in the second quarter of Milan. Coef. was 1.5, really. But not the point. I had no doubts about it. You could just put more.

Second quarter

During the beginning of the quarter, I made a new screen. Take a look. Milan started actively. Then the truth was equalized, but as a result he won a quarter back. And then another third. But according to my scheme, after withdrawing the winnings, I no longer bet. If the second quarter had not played, we would have bet on 3 and 4. They would definitely have taken one.

As a result of the match, Milan won. The strategy has passed.

And here is the result of the bet.

The rate was test. Therefore, 100 rubles. In this case, I was more interested in the article than the prize. I took screenshots during the game at Betcity. You can use whatever is convenient.

And the whole basketball in general. Today I propose to determine whether there is really a working live basketball betting strategy?

I am quite skeptical about the various strategies of the game, since there is no 100% tactic that allows you to win without risk and without much difficulty. But there are some justifiable approaches and concepts of the game. Next, we will talk about this, what you should pay attention to during live basketball matches.

Working strategy for betting on basketball in live

The most common live basketball betting strategy is the quarter totals strategy. Yes, there is a certain grain of truth in this, that it is rare to find a game when all four quarters in a match end with a total more points scored or a total less. But sometimes such matches still take place. Some cappers offer this concept of the game to be combined with catch-up, which, in my opinion, promises a failure at a distance. If a capper stumbles upon a game where all four quarters are threshing the ring, then his pot will lose its weight pretty much.

If you nevertheless decide to bet on the total in quarters, then first of all the following must be taken into account:

• Team form
• Leaders shape
• Bench scoring statistics

Basketball is an intense sport where substitutions take place every few minutes. All teams from the start go out in their most optimal compositions, which means that if all the leaders are healthy at the start, then it is best to take the total more points for the first quarter. If the bet is playing, then in the second quarter we look at the total points less, since in most cases the leaders of each team will rest most of the time in the second quarter.

But, it is necessary to take into account the depth of the bench, because there are such teams in the NBA in particular, where the benches are incredibly powerful and score no less points than the main starting ones. In less popular championships, where the choice of individual performer teams is not so rich, they can, with a more or less equal game, play the entire first half with one squad. Most recently, I watched such a match in the Argentine Basketball Championship. We threw well in the first half, but in the second we had frequent substitutions and the total fell.

Read also Live volleyball betting strategy: how and what to bet on?

Let's summarize what you need to consider if you bet on the strategy of betting on basketball in live on total more / less points in quarters:

1. Major players scoring statistics
2. Bench scoring statistics
3. Team form in general

It is quite obvious that if a team plays the first half of the game with one line-up, then substitutions will go in the second half, so in the second half it is worth taking ITM.

Strategy for betting on basketball in live on total total

However, I prefer a completely different strategy. It consists in the following:

• Viewing the first half of the meeting (2 quarters)
• The starting total is compared with the current one after two quarters
• If the total has increased by 7-10%, then the total points are taken less, if the total has fallen by 7-10%, then the total points are higher (the total total of the match)

Let me give you a small example. Yesterday there was a basketball match in Argentina. Initially, the total before the game was set at 162.5. But the players did not fly at all. Yes, it happens that you expect more total goals, but all the main basketball players seem to be quite good, but they come out and cannot score. The first three quarters were held on TM, and this is where we see what will happen to the bank if you catch the first three quarters on TB and even catch up. Therefore, I do not recommend using this strategy.