Sectoral structure of world trade. Fundamentals of International Merchandise Trade

SERVICES IN THE MODERN WORLD ECONOMY. CLASSIFICATION OF SERVICES

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES IN THE GENERAL SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES

CHAPTER 13.

Services (services) are a complex of diverse activities and commercial activities related to the satisfaction of a wide range of needs of people. The Liberalization of International Service Transactions, developed by UNTCAD and the World Bank, defines services as: services - a change in the position of an institutional unit that has occurred as a result of actions and on the basis of mutual agreement with another institutional unit.

It is easy to see that this is an extremely broad definition covering a diverse range of operations. Therefore, it is possible to distinguish between the concept of services in the broad and narrow sense of the word. In a broad sense, services are a complex of various types of activities and commercial activities of a person through which he communicates with other people. In a narrow sense, services are understood as specific actions, activities that one party (partner) can offer to the other party.

Although services are traditionally viewed as the so-called "tertiary sector" of the economy, they currently account for 2/3 of world GDP. They absolutely prevail in the economy of the United States and other industrialized countries (within 70-80% of GDP), as well as in most developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The share of services in the RF GDP in 2005 was 55.5%.

Services have a number of significant differences from goods in material terms:

1) they are usually intangible. This intangibility and "invisibility" of most types of services is often the basis for calling their foreign trade invisible exports and imports;

2) services are inseparable from their source;

3) their production and consumption, as a rule, are inseparable;

4) they are characterized by inconstancy of quality, variability and non-persistence.

The number of services, their role in the economy and international trade is growing rapidly, primarily as a result of scientific and technological progress, the growth of international economic relations in general, an increase in income and the ability to pay of the population in many countries of the world. Since services are heterogeneous, there are several classifications.

The classification of services based on the International Standardized Industrial Classification adopted by the United Nations includes:

1) utilities and construction;

2) wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels;

3) transportation, storage and communication, as well as financial intermediation;

4) defense and compulsory social services;

5) education, health care and public works;

6) other communal, social and personal services.
Most of the services under this classification are produced and consumed domestically and cannot be traded internationally.

The IMF classification used in compiling the balance of payments includes the following types of services related to payments between residents and non-residents: 1) transport; 2) travel; 3) communication; 4) construction; 5) insurance; 6) financial services; 7) computer and information services; 8) royalties and royalties; 9) other business services; 10) personal, cultural and recreational services; 11) government services.

From the point of view of the movement of factors of production, services are divided into factor services that arise in connection with the international (intercountry) movement of factors of production, primarily capital and labor, and non-factor services - other types of services (transport, travel and other non-financial services).

By now, the approaches associated with the division of services in international trade into tradable and non-tradable have changed. The signing of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) was the result of not only the harmonization of positions of different countries on international trade in services, but also the emergence of new theoretical and practical approaches to understanding the nature of international trade in services. Previously, theorists and practitioners divided services into tradable and non-tradable in international trade according to the principle of the so-called cross-border exchange of services, i.e. such an exchange, in which the producer and the consumer of the service were on opposite sides of the customs border, and the exchanged service crossed this border (by analogy with trade in "ordinary" goods). Postal or telecommunications services are examples of this kind of cross-border exchange of services. Those services that were carried out without such cross-border exchange were considered non-tradable. However, during the preparation of the GATS agreement, a new approach to the international exchange of services was formulated, according to which this exchange can be carried out in the following main ways:

1. The service moves across the customs border in the same way as a “regular” product, when the producer and the consumer are on opposite sides of the customs border.

2. A foreign producer of a service himself moves to the territory of the country where its consumer is located.

3. A foreign consumer of the service moves to the territory of the country where the service is produced.

4. Individuals - residents of one state, producing and / or consuming services in another state, move across the customs border (ie there is a combination of the second and third methods of international trade in services).

As a result of these new theoretical approaches, most types of services produced have moved into the category of tradable (in international trade) services. In this regard, some concepts related to the export and import of services acquired a new meaning. So, for example, the export of goods on a chartered foreign ship means “export of goods on import transport services”. A Russian travel agency that sends Russian tourists abroad carries out the import of tourist services, and a company that receives foreign tourists exports tourist services. A Russian professor who teaches at a foreign university and transfers part of his income to Russia is an exporter of intellectual, educational services.

In the course of international negotiations within the framework of the GATT / WTO, more than 160 types of services are taken into account, divided into 12 sectors:

1) business services (46 industry-specific types of services);

2) communication services (25 types);

3) construction and engineering services (5 types);

4) distribution services (5 types);

5) general education services (5 types);

6) services for the protection of the environment (4 types);

7) financial services, including insurance (17 types);

8) health care and social services (4 types);

9) tourism and travel (4 types);

10) services in the field of organizing leisure, culture and sports (5 types);

11) transport services (33 types);

12) other services.

The GATS within the WTO classifies international trade in services according to the manner in which they are provided. At the same time, the following are distinguished: 1) cross-border trade in services; 2) the movement of the consumer to the country where the service is consumed (consumption abroad); 3) the establishment of a commercial presence in the country where the service is to be provided; 4) temporary movement of individuals to another country for the provision of services. The largest volume of services (about 80% in total) falls on the first and third methods.

The IMF's international financial statistics are published under three groups of services: 1) transport services, 2) tourism, and 3) other private services.

Many types of services can be objects of international trade. Trade in services is a non-commodity business transaction. Unlike trade in goods, exporting or importing services does not necessarily mean crossing the customs border. The service can be provided to a non-resident within the customs territory of a given country, in which case the transaction will be considered international. Like payments for exports and imports of goods, international trade in services is reflected in the balance of payments. As recorded in the 1999 Business Guide to the GATS, a service becomes a subject of international trade if the provider of the service and its buyer are individuals or legal entities - residents of different countries, regardless of the place of commission transactions between them.

International exports of services are growing faster than international exports of goods. Exports of services in 1980 amounted to $ 402 billion, and in 2006 it amounted (according to the WTO data) to $ 2,710 billion, i.e. has grown more than 6 times. The share of exports of services in the total international trade in goods and services is 18-20%. This indicator is generally growing, and by 2015, according to IMEMO RAN estimates, it could amount to up to 30% of total international trade.

According to the WTO, Russian exports of commercial services in 2006 amounted to $ 30 billion (1.1% of world exports of commercial services, 25th place). For comparison: in 2002, the share of Russia was 0.8% of world exports of services, 29th place among the leading countries - exporters of services. Import of commercial services in Russia, according to the WTO, in 2006 amounted to 45 billion dollars, 1.7% of world imports of services, which meant 16th place among the leading countries - importers of commercial services. For comparison: in 2002, similar indicators were $ 21.5 billion, 1.4% of world imports of commercial services and 20th place among the leading countries - importers of commercial services. Thus, Russia is more actively involved in the global services market, although its share in it remains insignificant.

The reasons for the dynamic growth of international trade in services include:

STP and associated cardinal shifts in the international division of labor (while not only the scale of production of services is growing, but also their diversity);

The growth of the general openness of national economies, as a result of which an increasing part of services becomes an object of international trade;

Changes in the consumption structure of the population of the modern world, which is increasingly oriented towards the consumption of services;

The transition of the leading countries of the modern world, and after them other countries, to the modern "new information society", which is based on the growth of consumption of services, especially information;

The growing interconnectedness of international trade in various types of services (many of which are sold together - "in one package").

On the whole, in terms of its absolute scale, international trade in services still lags behind international trade in goods. The reasons for this include the following:

1. The bulk of services (especially services from government organizations) are sold within countries (this is clearly seen when comparing data on the share of services in GDP of individual countries and data on the share of services in international trade).

2. Trade in services, as it develops, requires ever higher technical equipment. However, this level (especially in the field of telecommunications, information, transport, tourism services) was achieved relatively recently.

3. In the liberalization of international trade in goods in recent years, much greater progress has been made than in international trade in services. The shifts achieved by the GATT and then the WTO were primarily related to trade in goods (most favored nation treatment, favorable conditions for access to domestic markets, national treatment). Services (except for the settlement of some transport and tourism problems at the international level) for a long time remained in the competence of national governments and were not subject to multilateral regulation of international trade.

However, one of the most important characteristics of modern world trade is the very dynamic growth in exports and imports of services. Many experts believe that officially published data on the volume of international trade in services underestimate the actual value of services sold in international trade. The reasons for this de facto underestimation include:

Underestimation of the cost of tourists abroad;

Services are often provided complete with goods sold abroad (and the cost of services is often fixed as part of the cost of the goods); in general, in such a situation, it is quite difficult to separate the actual cost of the goods and the cost of services;

Services make up a fairly significant part of intra-firm exchange within TNCs, and given that the sale of both goods and services in them is carried out at the so-called transfer prices (which are often deliberately underestimated), the cost estimate of the services sold in this case also turns out to be underestimated;

The assessment of banking and insurance services is also underestimated, since sometimes income from these operations is reinvested (invested) in the same foreign countries where they were received.

In general, the completeness and reliability of statistical accounting of international trade in services remains one of the complex and not fully resolved problems of international statistics.

In the sectoral structure (by main types of services), the export of services before the early 80s. transportation services predominated, but in the following decades they gave way to "other private services" and tourism, which developed much faster. At the beginning of the XXI century, “other private services” quite reasonably took the 1st place in the export of services (about 45%), since they include, in particular, such dynamically developing types of services as financial, information, communication, consulting services.

In Russia, the structure of exports of services is currently as follows: 22.3% - tourism, 37.1% - transport services and 40.6% - other private services.

The geographical structure of international trade in services is also changing.

International exchange of services is carried out primarily within the group of industrialized countries. The trend in international trade in services, as in international trade in goods, consists, on the one hand, in the prevalence, and on the other, in a gradual reduction in the share of this group of countries in trade in services (up to 70% at the end of the 90s) in as a result of activation in the service sector of newly industrialized countries and other developing countries.

In terms of trade in services, with a growing gap from other states, the United States is in the lead (14.3% of world exports and 11.7% of world imports of services in 2006, according to the WTO). The United States accounts for the largest volume of trade in services through TNC channels. At the same time, it is characteristic that the United States, with its traditional deficit (negative balance) in foreign trade in goods, has a significant positive balance in foreign trade in services. In terms of the volume of exports of services, the United States is followed by Great Britain, Germany, France, and Japan.

Unlike the United States, Germany, Japan, Canada, and China import more services than they export, i.e. are net importers of services. Most developing countries have negative foreign trade in services.

Russia is a net importer of commercial services. According to the WTO, the negative balance of services in Russia amounted to 15 billion dollars in 2006. In connection with the growth of imports of services, the negative balance of services is increasing.

We can talk about the specialization of national economies in the export of services in the system of the international division of labor. In industrialized countries, these are primarily financial, telecommunications, information, business services, advanced technologies, as well as services for education, health care and tourism. Some developing countries also specialize in the production and provision of services - tourism (Turkey, Egypt, Thailand, etc.), transport (Egypt, Panama and other states of the so-called "open ship registry"), financial (offshore centers of the Caribbean and Pacific Islands ). The role of the newly industrialized states, China and a number of other states in international trade in services is growing. Russia is a net exporter of transport services and has prospects here of using its Eurasian position for organizing transit, promising the development of services in the field of high technologies and international tourism.

M / n trade in services- a specific form of world economic saints for the exchange of services between sellers and buyers of different countries. Service- a variety of activities that do not have a material carrier in an explicit form.

2 types of services:

1. services that are mediated by things, they are associated with consumer goods (material);

2. services not related to tangible products. Their action is directed at a person or at the conditions in which he is located, their production is inseparable from consumption (intangible).

A specific branch of services is m / n tourism (m / n movement of people or travel), which is a specific category of MT. Tourist services in the m / n trade turnover act as a kind of "invisible commodity", it becomes an important, sometimes the only source of income for many developed and developing countries).

160 types of services, divided into 12 main sections (according to the UN classifier):

1. Business services

2. Communication services

3. Construction and engineering services

4. Distribution services

5. General education services

6. Environmental protection services

7. Financial services and insurance

8. Services for health protection and social. services

9. Tourism and travel

10. Services in the field of leisure, culture and sports

11. Transport services

12. Other services.

Features compared to MT products:

1. are not regulated at the border, but within the country by the provisions of domestic law. The absence or presence of the fact of crossing the border by the service cannot serve as a criterion for the export of the service

2. the service is not subject to storage. The export (import) of services often requires a direct meeting between the seller and the buyer.

3.the range of services offered in world markets< ассортимента на внутреннем рынке и < номенклатуры товаров, вовлеченных в м\н товарооборот

4. has a specific regulatory framework for its regulation. The production and sale of services has a large state. protection.

5. m \ n trade in services tries. is closely related to and strongly influenced by trade in goods.

6. not all types of services, unlike goods, can be traded. Services received for personal consumption cannot be involved in economic m / n turnover.

Development trends:

· Decrease in the share of transport services,

An increase in the share of tourism in the export of services

· Development of the “special private services” segment, which includes financial services (insurance, audit, etc.)

Reduction of the share of official and government services

Serving the market via the Internet (E-commerce) is becoming a highly promising and dynamic type of service. The Internet offers new services for the use of E-mail. of money.

Basic forms of services for entrepreneurship

Management,

Leasing,

Franchising (system of transfer or sale of technology and trademark licenses),

· Know-how, etc.

54. Importance of foreign trade for RS. The structure and geographic directions of trade. Consequences of the trade policy of developed countries in relation to RS.

With an almost 150 million population, significant energy resources, a fairly highly qualified labor force and a low labor cost, Russia is a huge market for goods, services and capital. However, the degree of realization of this potential in the foreign economic sphere is very modest. The share of Russia in world exports in 1997 was about 1.3%. The state of Russian foreign trade is still painfully reflected by the sharp reduction in economic ties with other former Soviet republics as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the curtailment of trade with the former socialist countries - members of the CMEA, which until the beginning of the 90s. were the main consumers of domestic engineering products.

But if the role of Russia in world trade is small, then for it the importance of the foreign economic sphere is very significant. The value of the export quota of Russia, calculated on the basis of the purchasing power parity of the ruble against the dollar, is about 10%, dividing the distant and near abroad in a ratio of about 5: 1. Foreign trade remains an important source of investment goods, and also plays an important role in supplying the Russian population with food and various consumer goods.

The traditional and most developed form of international economic relations is foreign trade. By some estimates, trade accounts for about 80 percent of all international economic relations. Modern international economic relations, characterized by the active development of world trade, introduce many new and specific features in the development of national economies.
For any country, the role of foreign trade can hardly be overestimated. According to J. Sachs, “... the economic success of any country in the world is based on foreign trade. Not a single country has yet managed to create a healthy economy by isolating itself from the global economic system "
International trade is a form of communication between producers of different countries, arising on the basis of the international division of labor, and expresses their mutual economic dependence.
Structural shifts taking place in the economies of countries under the influence of the scientific and technological revolution, specialization and cooperation of industrial production enhance the interaction of national economies. This contributes to the revitalization of international trade. International trade, which mediates the movement of all intercountry commodity flows, is growing faster than production. According to research by the World Trade Organization, for every 10% increase in world production accounts for 16% of the increase in world trade. This creates more favorable conditions for its development. When there are disruptions in trade, the development of production slows down.

The term "foreign trade" refers to the trade of any country with other countries, consisting of paid import (import) and paid export (export) of goods.
Diversified foreign trade activities are subdivided by commodity specialization into: trade in finished goods, trade in machinery and equipment, trade in raw materials and trade in services.
International trade is called the paid aggregate trade between all countries of the world. However, the concept of "international trade" is used in a narrower sense. It denotes, for example, the aggregate trade turnover of industrially developed countries, the aggregate trade turnover of developing countries, the aggregate trade turnover of the countries of a continent, region, for example, Eastern European countries, etc.
The most dynamic and intensively developing sector of world trade is trade in manufacturing products, especially in knowledge-intensive goods. Thus, the export of science-intensive products is more than $ 500 billion per year, and the share of high-tech products is approaching 40% in the exports of industrialized countries.
The role of trade in machinery and equipment has significantly increased. The fastest growing is the export of electrical and electronic equipment, which accounts for more than 25% of all exports of mechanical engineering products. The annual growth of the world microelectronics market up to 2010 is forecasted at the level of 10-15 percent. In 1996, worldwide sales of electronic devices of all kinds exceeded the $ 1 trillion mark. dollars.
In connection with the increase in world exports of machinery and equipment (the leaders here are industrialized countries), the exchange of relevant services has also sharply increased: scientific and technical, industrial, commercial, financial and credit services. Active trade in machinery and equipment has given rise to a number of new services, such as engineering, leasing, consulting, information and computing services.
In general, the global export of services in the 1980s shows a noticeable growth, which slowed down somewhat in the mid-1990s. The development of the world economy is largely determined by the growth of trade in services - transport, financial, tourism. In 1995, it reached $ 1230 billion (export of goods, respectively, $ 4875 billion) and thus accounted for a fifth of the total value of world trade. The figures presented refer only to cross-border trade that appears in national balance of payments. According to foreign experts, transactions with the services of branches of foreign companies in other countries are carried out approximately three times more. One of the fastest growing areas of international trade is the trade in chemical products. An important trend of the 90s is the very dynamic growth of the world metallurgical market. The peculiarities of this market include the relative, but quite noticeable movement in the share of traditional exporters - Japan and the EU countries. The positions of the Republic of Korea and Brazil have noticeably strengthened. The place of the largest net importers is still held by the USA and China.
It should be noted that there is a tendency towards an increase in the consumption of raw materials and energy resources. However, the growth rate of commodity trade lags far behind the overall growth rate of world trade. This lag is explained by the creation of substitutes for raw materials, more economical use and deeper processing.
The tightening of environmental protection requirements aimed at limiting the emission of gases and, above all, carbon dioxide, in order to prevent global climate change, in the future will have a certain impact on reducing the consumption of coal and, to some extent, oil, as the most environmentally dirty energy sources. resources. At the same time, the role of renewable energy sources and natural gas will be enhanced.
The long-term trends in the development of the world food market are the outstripping development of trade in comparison with the growth rates of food in individual countries. Another trend is the outstripping development of trade in finished products in comparison with agricultural raw materials.
Characterizing the sectoral structure of world trade in the first half of the 20th century (before the Second World War) and in the following decades, we see significant changes. If in the first half of the century 2/3 of the world trade turnover was accounted for by food, raw materials and fuel, then by the end of the century they accounted for only 1/4. The share of trade in manufacturing products increased from 1/3 to 3/4. And finally, more than 1/3 of all world trade by the end of the 90s was trade in machinery and equipment.
The commodity structure of world trade is changing under the influence of scientific and technological revolution, the deepening of the international division of labor. Currently, manufacturing products are of the greatest importance in world trade: they account for 3/4 of the world trade turnover. The share of such types of products as machinery, equipment, vehicles, chemical products, manufacturing products, especially high-tech goods, is growing especially rapidly. The share of food, raw materials and fuel is approximately 1/4.
In the world food trade, there is a relative decrease in demand for it. To a certain extent, this is due to the expansion of food production in industrialized countries.
One of the fastest growing areas of international trade is the trade in chemical products. It should be noted that there is a tendency towards an increase in the consumption of raw materials and energy resources. However, the growth rate of commodity trade lags far behind the overall growth rate of world trade. This lag is due to the development of substitutes for raw materials, its more economical use, and the deepening of its processing.
An important trend is the expansion of trade in this group of goods between industrialized countries. In connection with the growth of such trade, the exchange of services has sharply increased: scientific and technical, industrial, commercial, financial and credit nature. Active trade in machinery and equipment has given rise to a number of new services, such as engineering, leasing, consulting, information and computing services, which, in turn, stimulates intercountry exchange of services, especially scientific and technical, production, communicative financial and credit character. At the same time, trade in services (especially such as information and computing, consulting, leasing, engineering) stimulates world trade in industrial goods (Table 2.1).
The fastest growing is the export of electrical and electronic equipment, which accounts for more than 25% of all exports of mechanical engineering products.

Table 2.1
Commodity structure of world exports by major
product groups,%
Continuation of table. 2.1

As foreign trade statistics show, in the last decade and a half, there has been a stable and constant growth in world foreign trade turnover, exceeding the growth rate of GDP, which convincingly indicates that all countries are increasingly drawn into the system of the international division of labor. World exports more than doubled from $ 2 trillion. dollars in 1980 to 5.5 trillion. dollars in 1997. This means an increase in the volume of exports by more than 70% in the 1980s and by more than 33% in the first half of the 1990s. Import indicators are also close to these figures (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2
World trade results (exports and imports)
Changes,%, to the previous year Export
North America (US & Canada) 9.5 8.0
European Union 8.0 6.0
Countries with economies in transition 14.5 11.5
Japan 3.5 12.5
Latin America 12.0 3.0
SEA countries (South Korea,
Malaysia,
Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong) 14.5 15.5
Import
North America 5.5 5.5
European Union 4.0 2.5
Countries with economies in transition 3.5 12.0
Japan -0.5 2.5
Latin America 11.0 10.5
SEA countries 3.5 4.0

According to rough estimates, the world trade turnover in 1998 reached 11.9 trillion. dollars. Analysis of changes in international trade, including at the present stage, involves consideration of two aspects: first, the rate of its growth in general (exports and imports) and relative to the growth of production; secondly, shifts in the structure: commodity (the ratio of the main groups of goods and services) and geographic (the shares of regions, groups of countries and individual countries).
As for the first, it can be stated: the steady outstripping growth rates of world trade turnover are an indicator of new qualitative features of international trade associated with an increase in the capacity of world markets. Characteristic are the outstripping, rather high rates of expansion of trade in finished industrial products, and in them - in machines and equipment, even higher rates of growth in trade in products of communications, electrical and electronic equipment, computers, etc. The exchange of components and assemblies for units supplied by way of industrial cooperation within the framework of TNCs expanded even faster. And another dynamic phenomenon is the accelerated growth of international trade in services.
All this could not but affect the radical shifts, both in the commodity and in the geographical structure of world foreign trade exchange. At the same time, the share of the main groups of developed, developing and former socialist countries has remained practically unchanged over the past 15-20 years. In the first case, these are values ​​of the order of 70-76%, in the second, this value is in the range of 20-24%, and for the last group this figure does not exceed 6-8%.
In the commodity exchange of world foreign trade, there is an obvious tendency towards an increase in the share of finished goods, which account for more than 70% of world trade. The remaining share is divided approximately equally between agricultural exports and the extractive industries. For comparison, it can be said that in the middle of this century, commodities accounted for about two-thirds of exports and only one-third of finished goods.
Services currently account for almost a quarter of international trade. That is why we consider the services market separately.

The current position of Russia in international trade is clearly discordant with the prevailing directions and trends in the international division of labor in the overwhelming majority of countries. Possessing unique natural resources, large production, scientific and human potential, Russia is still content with the position of a country of fuel and raw materials specialization. Up to 90% of its exports are energy resources, raw materials and semi-finished products, and the share in world trade does not exceed 1.5%.

High indicators of the Russian export quota - 45% in 2000 calculated at the official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia compared to 7-8% in Soviet times - is a direct result of the loss of almost half of the country's economic potential in the 90s, rising prices and the depreciation of the ruble after August 1998. At the same time, this quota is not an indicator of a diversified economy, but most likely indicates an excessive dependence on the demand of the external market, the conjuncture of which for these goods in the long term can change dramatically. The largest export dependence is in the extractive industry and primary processing industries: in the production of energy resources - 46% for oil, 33% for gas, and in metallurgy, wood processing, basic chemistry and the production of mineral fertilizers, the export quota reaches 70-80%.

In recent years, it is raw materials exports, due to high prices on the world market, especially for oil, that have become the locomotive of the development of the entire national economy and its further fuel and raw materials orientation. In 1996-2000. exports increased by more than 22%, providing 6.5% of GDP growth and a decisive contribution to overcoming the consequences of the 1998 crisis.

In the crisis conditions of the transition period in Russia, receipts from exports, primarily raw materials, played the role of one of the few effective instruments for stabilizing the domestic financial market, replenishing the budget, maintaining the ruble exchange rate and accumulating sufficiently large foreign exchange reserves, which are so necessary to pay off high external debt.

Table 26.5. Dynamics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation

Index	1996-2000 g.		2005 billion dollars
	USD billion	%
Turnover - total, including:	625	100	370
far abroad	494	79	315
CIS countries	131	21	55
Export - total, including:	418	100	245
far abroad	347	83	212
CIS countries	71	17	34
Import - total, including:	207	100	125
far abroad	147	71	103
CIS countries	60	29	22

Source: Customs statistics of the Russian Federation.

The foreign trade turnover of Russia in recent years has been characterized by a constant, almost two-fold excess of exports over imports: the trade balance asset in 2005 reached 120 billion dollars. At the same time, no serious positive changes have taken place in the commodity structure of this turnover over the past decade. The main place in exports with a tendency to further increase is still occupied by the products of the extractive industries, primarily oil and natural gas - 55% in 2002 against 45% in 1990, metals (about 19 and 16%, respectively), products of the chemical and timber processing industry (about 12 and 9%), machinery, equipment and means of transport (9.5 and 18%), food and agricultural raw materials (2.6 and 2.1%). In 2005, Russia's foreign trade turnover in comparison with the previous year increased by 1/3, including exports by 34% and imports by 28.5%.

Russian supplies of science-intensive products to the world market amount to about 8-8.5 billion dollars, or 7-8% of the total Russian exports of goods and services. In 2005, exports of machinery, equipment and vehicles accounted for only about 5% of all exports. The main part of these supplies (6-7 billion dollars) falls on the so-called security products - weapons, goods and services of the nuclear and rocket and space industries.

In imports over the same years, the main item continues to be machinery, equipment and means of transport (36 and 44%, respectively), food and agricultural raw materials (22.5 and 22.7%), chemical products (17 and 9%), textiles and footwear (5 and 9%), as well as some metals (6 and 5%).

The relatively high profitability of commodity exports in recent years and the resulting economic policy and interests of leading industrial and financial groups give little hope for a large-scale transfer of income to the manufacturing sector of the Russian Federation. Moreover, large assets are still going abroad.

As you know, fuel and raw materials specialization is strategically unpromising, since in fact it means the consumption of national wealth, seriously undermines the production and scientific and technical potential of the nation's development and, ultimately, its international competitiveness. A change in export orientation is possible only with active government intervention, which seems to be an extremely difficult matter.

Improving Russia's international specialization would be possible in the following main areas. Firstly, this is a serious diversification of existing exports by increasing the degree of processing of manufactured products, expanding the range of the main export commodity groups, and more actively involving new regions of the country in foreign economic activity. This is perhaps the least costly route.

Another way is the comprehensive expansion of domestic high-tech exports, including products of electrical engineering, electronics, scientific instrument making, special equipment and weapons, goods and services of the nuclear and aviation industries. Potential opportunities for entering the foreign market for these industries are provided by the rapidly developing technological and industrial cooperation in the world. Difficulties on this path today are the relatively low quality of domestic products, the lack of access to the consumer market for many types of special equipment and services, the violation of the previously established links between science and production, its basically outdated technological base.

Russia has serious opportunities for financial support of these areas in the form of an already accumulated record high gold and foreign exchange reserve (about $ 150 billion in mid-2005) and rather large funds accumulated in the "stabilization fund", mainly due to an extremely favorable market environment. the world oil market. A significant precedent in this respect was the merger in mid-2000 of Severstal with the European concern Arselon. It allows us to talk about a real possibility of Russia's participation in European integration according to a new scenario, i.e. based on the use by the parties of the advantages of the international division of labor and specialization, without waiting for interstate agreements on a free trade zone or a common economic space.

In addition, the real way for our enterprises to successfully enter the highly competitive world markets in the most dynamic sector of the world economy and international trade - the manufacturing industry - lies through broad cooperation with leading companies in industrialized countries.

The main trade and political problem for Russia today is finding acceptable conditions for joining the WTO, which opens the way for our country's equal participation in international trade. During negotiations on the part of the most influential members of this organization, the so-called quadro, i.e. USA, EU, Japan and Canada, Russia has requirements that are not mandatory for the acceding countries. These include the complete abolition of import duties on a wide range of goods, the refusal to regulate domestic prices (tariffs) for energy resources and their increase to the world level, large-scale liberalization of the service sector, limitation of state support for agriculture and subsidies for exporters of agricultural products. These requirements indicate a desire to accept Russia on terms different from the "standard" ones, ie. on the terms that the WTO usually applies to countries that have a weak competitive position.

It should be borne in mind that the degree of liberalization of Russian imports is already quite high. Thus, the arithmetic average level of duties in Russia in 2001 amounted to 11.8% against 7.8% in 1993. For the EU, this figure is 3.9 and 3.7%, respectively, the USA - 4.0 and 5.6% ... At the same time, it is known that India, China, Vietnam, Romania, Bulgaria, Mexico, Brazil and a number of other countries that have recently become members of the WTO already have a higher level of customs protection compared to the Russian one.

The essence of the discussion in our country on the issue of participation in the WTO boils down to the fact that it should not be an end in itself and cannot be achieved at any cost. The main benefit for the country, if it joins the WTO, is the "voluntary-compulsory" formation of a truly market, competitive environment, where all participants in foreign economic activity will have to comply with the rules of the game established in the world. As a result, a predictable and reliable organizational and legal basis for sustainable and confident further economic growth of Russia will be created gradually, during the pre-agreed transition period.

Self-test questions

1. Expand the essence of the concepts of "international division of labor" and "international specialization and cooperation", show their role in the development of world trade and global production.
2. What are the "comparative advantages" of a country's participation in world trade?
3. What are the main indicators characterizing the degree of a country's participation in international trade?
4. How is the relationship between trade in goods and services manifested?
5. What goods and services determine the development of modern international trade?
6. What are the main directions and features of modern trade policy (bilateral and multilateral)?
7. What are the features of the application of the most favorable and national treatment?
8. What are the specifics of Russia's participation in international trade, and the specifics of its export and import commodity structure?
9. What is the difference between the WTO and other international economic organizations?
10. On what conditions is Russia's accession to the WTO possible?

Its competitiveness.

International trade theory.

International trade in services.

Essence, features of international trade.

World trade - movement of inventory items abroad in exchange for cash flows.

Modern features of international trade:

- a sharp increase in the volume of international trade in goods and services;

- a change in the commodity structure of world exports towards an increase in the exchange of high technology products and services;

- transformation from a simple sale on the foreign market of a certain surplus of production into a pre-agreed supply of goods between cooperating enterprises of different countries;

- a tendency towards an increase in the import dependence of a number of countries;

- regulation (liberalization) of international trade through the activities of the GATT - WTO;

- liberalization of international trade, the transition of many countries to a regime that includes the abolition of quantitative restrictions on imports and a significant reduction in customs duties - the formation of "free economic zones";

- active activity of transnational corporations in the world market;

–The developing countries remain mainly suppliers of raw materials, foodstuffs and relatively simple finished goods to the world market. The desire of developing countries to diversify their exports at the expense of industrial group products is often met with some form of opposition from industrialized countries;

- some developing countries, primarily NIS (newly industrialized countries: Singapore, Thailand, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan), have managed to achieve significant progress in restructuring their exports, increasing the share of finished products, industrial products, including machinery and equipment;

- an increase in intra-industry trade between developed countries (between automotive, aviation, electronic, steel and other companies) has become a very noticeable trend;

–The growing role of the Asia-Pacific region in the system of international economic relations, including in the field of international trade. Among the promising leaders of world trade are China, India;

- after the collapse of the socialist bloc, trade between the EU and the countries of the former socialist bloc increased sharply.

Sectoral structure of world trade

1. The most dynamic and intensively developing sector of world trade is trade in manufacturing products, especially in knowledge-intensive goods.

2. The role of trade in machinery and equipment has significantly increased. The fastest growing exports of electrical and electronic equipment.

3. One of the fastest growing areas of international trade is the trade in chemical products.

4. An important trend of the 90s is the very dynamic growth of the world metallurgical market. The peculiarities of this market include a relative, but quite noticeable decrease in the share of traditional exporters - Japan and the EU countries. The positions of the Republic of Korea and Brazil have noticeably strengthened. The place of the largest net importers is still held by the USA and China.

5. In general, the development of the world economy is largely determined by the growth of trade in services - transport, financial, tourism.

6. If in the first half of the century 2/3 of the world trade turnover was accounted for by foodstuffs, raw materials and fuel, then by the end of the century they accounted for only 1/4. The share of trade in manufacturing products increased from 1/3 to 3/4. And finally, more than 1/3 of all world trade by the end of the 90s was trade in machinery and equipment.

Competitiveness of sectors of the Russian economy:

First group- competitive resource industries by world standards (oil, gas, timber, diamond industries, partly energy, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy). These industries employ 4% of all employed in the economy and 17% in industry. They create about half of the added value in the industry and about 15% of GDP, if we count in domestic prices (in world prices - much more). Russia ranks first in the export of natural gas, rough diamonds, aluminum, nickel and nitrogen fertilizers; the third-fourth place in the export of oil, oil products, electricity, potash fertilizers and rolled ferrous metals.

Second group- manufacturing industries with great scientific and technical potential, capable of producing products that are competitive not only in the domestic market, but also (under certain conditions) in the foreign market. These include the aerospace, nuclear industry, partly power engineering, heavy machine tools, biotechnology, forestry, woodworking and pulp and paper industries, as well as the military industry. This group of industries needs a protectionist policy of the state to maintain competitiveness in the domestic market.

While Russia firmly holds the second place in the conventional arms market, providing about 13% of the world's needs, Russia's positions in the markets for civilian finished products and high-tech products are extremely weak. Today Russia exports 5 times less high-tech products than Thailand, 8 times less than Mexico, 10 times less than China, and 14 times less than Malaysia and South Korea.

Third group- these are industries that can hardly be competitive in the foreign market, but are able to satisfy a significant part of the demand in the domestic market: automotive, agricultural engineering, light and food industries, production of building materials. All these industries, taken together, provide about 18% of industrial output, but almost never export their products.

The considered group of uncompetitive industries includes agriculture (it accounts for about 15% of those employed in the national economy, but only 7% of GDP). In relation to this group of industries, it is probably necessary, firstly, to actively use protective import tariffs and other legal protectionist measures (while maintaining reasonable competition) and, secondly, to encourage domestic demand for their products in every possible way (through the system of public procurement, leasing, etc.).

In international trade in services, Russia also focuses on traditional and low-tech niches: tourism and transport services. These two positions in the second half of the 90s accounted for 75 to 80% of all Russian exports of services.

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