Dollar for next week forecast. Dynamics of the us dollar exchange rate

Paradoxically, it is easier to predict the dollar exchange rate for a year than for a month or a week. This problem is associated with many factors: the price of oil in the short and long term, with sanctions and Russian anti-sanctions, the general economic state of Russia and the United States of America, with the policy of the Federal Reserve System of the Central Bank. Each of these factors has elements of uncertainty. The forecast of the dollar exchange rate purely in theory, of course, is as follows: due to the decline in oil prices through the development of alternative energy and energy conservation, the dollar could go down against the ruble. But this is unlikely to happen due to sanctions and internal economic problems of the Russian Federation.

Dollar exchange rate dynamics

To monitor the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in different banks, the easiest way is to use an online service, moreover, the most convenient are those services in which you can view information in a graphical form. On this page you can see the quotes of the largest banks in Moscow. Data analysis will help you choose the best currency exchange option. The official value of the dollar on the territory of the Russian Federation is set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at exactly half past eleven at noon (Moscow time). Until this moment, all conversion and exchange operations are carried out at yesterday's rate. By the way, be careful with exchangers - information about quotes in them changes several times a day, so it is so important to keep track of the changes.

Dollar exchange rate for tomorrow forecast, dynamics and graph

Now information about the current exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble is considered almost the most important and has a "universal" scale. You can find out the dollar rate for tomorrow, view analysts' forecasts, dynamics and charts either on our website, or by going to the Yandex search engine - there is daily updated information about the current dollar quotes. All major banks have archives regarding the state of the dollar exchange rate. This information is most often presented in graphs. Users are given the opportunity to track dollar quotes in dynamics, and by choosing for analysis any period of time, starting from the opening of the bank.

Current exchange rate of the cb dollar as of the date

The dollar exchange rate will be determined at the auction of the Moscow Interbank Exchange (MICEX). According to these data, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sets the official exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble the next day. You can view the current course on our website every day. We have fresh, up-to-date information from the primary source - from the currency exchange. Note that the dollar rate is constantly changing and is updated every 15 minutes, but the Central Bank fixes as a reference the rate that is set daily at 11.30 Moscow time. It is best to track the dynamics of the course in charts, taking into consideration a certain period of time.

The official dollar exchange rate today

This page provides information regarding the official dollar exchange rate today. Also here you can view statistical data in the form of graphs that clearly show the fluctuation of the exchange rate. The official dollar rate is set by the Central Bank once a day - at 11.30 Moscow time, but private exchange offices do not often adhere to an exemplary rate, setting the one that is beneficial to them, of course, their dollar rate does not go beyond the currency corridor. The most up-to-date dollar rate is the stock exchange rate. It is he who is used by the Central Bank as a reference point. It is updated every 15 minutes.

Change in the dollar exchange rate, statistics for the month

At the opening of trades, the dollar rate may rise or fall. If you are going to conduct currency transactions, remember the risk, because quotes are significantly influenced not only by the price of oil, but also by the political and economic situation in Russia and in the world. On this page, various tables are presented to your attention, clearly demonstrating the change in the dollar exchange rate and statistics for a month, a year. Also on this page you can view the online exchange rate of the Central Bank dollar for a specific date or, for example, track the dynamics for a couple of days in advance.

(10 estimates, on average: 4,60 out of 5)

Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018... In this article, I will traditionally consider the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and can change further, in order to draw conclusions about what will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018... I think that this should be of interest to all residents of the Russian Federation.

As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.

So, before making a forecast of the dollar rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics were in the past year.

Dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017.

In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened slightly over the year.

Here is a graph showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:

As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate moved within the channel, which I marked on the chart. The year began with the upper border of the channel, and ended closer to the lower one, thus, at the end of the year, there was a slight strengthening of the ruble exchange rate: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.

It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: fundamental analysis.

First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors affecting the ruble exchange rate and how they might change in 2018.

Factor 1. Oil prices. The dependence of the ruble on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent crude oil prices over the same period.

At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble was strengthening, although it should logically fall. Then oil took a fairly strong upward trend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, practically did not change.

Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $ 44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about $ 67 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. During this period, oil has risen in price by 1.5 times, but the ruble exchange rate has not changed!

What does this mean? On the one hand - that the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is decreasing. On the other hand, we all understand perfectly well that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.

Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.

What will happen to oil in 2018?

• The supply of oil on the market continues to exceed the demand for it, and this trend is predicted to continue;
• The OPEC agreement on limiting production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - oil revenues account for 50% of the country's GDP);
• High oil prices will increase US shale oil production;
• Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.

Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from current levels is more likely. If oil prices fall, the ruble exchange rate is likely to weaken as well.

Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, like “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their impact was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift the sanctions, moreover, they are constantly increasing, new ones are being introduced.

All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “the sanctions are only in our favor”), and indirectly - on the ruble exchange rate as the national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP is decreasing, inflation is growing.

The lifting of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially a complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious preconditions for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to the further devaluation of the ruble.

The nearest negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from purchasing Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.

It was only after the appearance of this news that a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.

Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate, and will contribute to its decline. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of the RF government bonds are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-resident capital from other Russian assets, in particular, shares. The fall in stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.

In addition, the gradual decline in the yield of Russian ruble government bonds leads to the fact that they become unprofitable for foreign investors even without a ban (the ratio ceases to be attractive).

All this speaks about the continuation of the outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a consequence, the weakening of the ruble.

Factor 3. Central Bank Policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, it is imperative to consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Let's consider his main instruments of foreign exchange regulation, and how he applies them.

Discount rate. Throughout 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The step of decreasing is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.

Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates the growth of inflation, which means that a foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, accordingly, can decrease.

In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decline, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant effect on the ruble exchange rate.

Foreign exchange intervention. Here it is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation through the Central Bank was more and more actively buying currency on the Moscow Exchange. So, for example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year, such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.

Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, consequently, a slight drop in the ruble exchange rate, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017 the ruble was strengthening.

Moreover, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly held the so-called. “Verbal interventions,” stating that by the end of the year the dollar rate will surely rise, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up foreign currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not occur, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.

This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015 senior officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively asserted that it would fall, it, on the contrary, strengthened a little.

All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voiced have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.

Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential elections to be held in March. In recent years, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the current president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and support to him.

One of the factors of this improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is getting stronger - it means that it is getting better, we are pursuing the correct policy” - this message can be seen among others.

I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections - also, so that there is no clear “border” of the trend change that coincides with the elections. But further, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely be gone, since there will be practically no resources left for this.

Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, in the region of 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, there is no need to expect any improvements in 2018; I do not know anything about the plans for such reforms.

Inflation will be from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is more likely associated not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete fall in the purchasing power of the population (in 2017, it decreases by 1-2% compared to 2016, and all previous years fell even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation in comparison with 2017.

Separately, I would like to note the closure of the reserve fund and the reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are being depleted more and more, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.

Personally, I do not see and do not expect any significant positive changes in the economy that could have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I think this is not so significant.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: technical analysis.

Now that we have considered the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's conduct a technical analysis to determine when and what the price movement may be.

Attention to the chart:

In the last year, the ruble exchange rate has been clamped at, symbolizing a figure of uncertainty. It is indicated by blue lines on the chart. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakout will occur, and the rate will exit the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the value of the initial height of the triangle.

In my opinion, breaking the downward triangle, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are a lot of negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upward, after the rate fluctuates for some time inside the triangle.

Above, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which the course will most likely be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. If the level of 66.5 is broken, the dollar / ruble rate may rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018: conclusions.

Summing up the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:

1. In general, the fundamental factors indicate that the ruble exchange rate will fall.
2. There is a serious factor that currently restrains this decline - it is a strong rise in oil prices.
3. As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change slightly, and a strong strengthening is unlikely.
4. If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble will start to fall.
5. The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it is likely to be weak.
6. The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
7. With a significant increase in some negative factors, the dollar exchange rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble exchange rate may fall weaker, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.

I got this forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018. As always, I am ready for constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both famous and not so famous. The main thing is to remember that only you yourself are responsible for your financial decisions.

Join the number of regular visitors to the site and improve your financial literacy to better understand economic processes and more effectively manage personal finances. Until next time on the site!

Comments on record: 69

Hello again! I don't even know where to start) I only read the beginning of the article, I really liked your warning about what is dangerous
listen to other people's opinions when it comes to finances), I remember telling you about this last year that people should be warned. Last year, I think you shouldn't write anything to you, you yourself see everything who was right and who was not. The dollar has not gone anywhere, oil is under 70, that is, exactly as I wrote a year ago.
I will not write anything on the article itself, I have not read it yet, but later I think I will write it down.

• Hello, you are right there). In my opinion, you are solely engaged in tracking this topic, but by the way, this is your business. Of course, you will write it down later, because only for this you come here, but I immediately warn you traditionally: the slightest manifestation of disrespect, and your comment will not be. Therefore, re-read very well before sending 🙂
  Last year I did not write that the dollar “will fly away somewhere”. I will quote: “the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2017 at the moment can be described in one word:“ uncertainty ”. Conclusions: 1. Uncertainty. 2. The dollar is up rather than down. " And the word "uncertainty" was repeated in the article many times. Actually, this is what happened - nothing happened, no special movements up or down. Uncertainty remained as it was at the end of the year.

1. Hello Julia. Personally, I keep my equity in dollars. I think this is a personal matter for everyone, depending on what you plan to do with your free money and when. For long-term preservation, so far, dollars have always been better. For the euro, you can write a separate forecast, in my opinion, it can grow even further against the dollar in the near future, but then it can fall.

Again, I see the comment was deleted, but oh well, it was addressed specifically to you, others do not need to read it.

Let's go for oil)
The fact that oil has risen in price 1.5 times as you write, and the ruble exchange rate remained at the same level, in no way can mean what you wrote, it says only one thing - the purchase of surplus currency, for example: the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency in the domestic market by 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018. Not weak, huh? I thought I wrote last year that they will keep the course by any means, since further strengthening of the ruble will hit competitiveness hard.
of our manufacturers in the global market.
Regarding the supply and demand of oil. There is still a surplus, but it is not at all significant, it is worth looking at how much it has decreased in a year, the picture changes immediately. If this continues, then in 3-5 years we will not have an oversupply, but a deficit. Consumption is growing at a fast pace around the world, for example: China's oil imports totaled 34 million metric tons in December. As a result, imports for 2017 were up 10.1% to a record 420 million metric tons + a significant reduction in US inventories.
Regarding OPEC, I didn’t understand at all, what kind of extension are we talking about? As far as I know, it was extended until the end of 2018.
How did you decide that production in the United States will increase enough to put serious pressure on world prices? On the contrary, the number of drilling rigs has decreased in recent years and it is still too early to talk about increasing production.
What does Alaska have to do with it? I don’t understand at all how this can affect oil this year. Do you even know how long it takes to develop deposits?

Personally, I think that oil will continue to grow this year too, to what price it will rise is difficult to say, but there can be no talk of a fall.

Hello, I am writing from the phone there may be blots. Michael, state your version for 2018. And more specifics. Things like you write must be supported by facts. Leave your emotions to women. Sincerely.

• Or maybe you first write something on the topic yourself, before demanding it from others? So far, I have only written about oil, and I have explained my position in sufficient detail and in detail, even more in detail than it is written in the article. I don’t owe you anything, so be content with what I write. I don’t understand about emotions at all, what emotions should I leave to women?

  Emotions should not be nodded towards women. You men have even worse emotions.

Sanctions.
The only thing I agree with is that the sanctions have practically no pressure on the course.

You write that tougher sanctions will negatively affect trade? In 2017, there was also a repeated tightening of sanctions, but foreign trade turnover increased by $ 95 billion compared to 2016, while there is no data for the whole year, I can only compare it to November.

Why write about the pitiful millions that were taken out of the stock market, I don’t understand at all, they introduced them last year, they took them out, next year they will invest again. Moreover, write that this is a serious outflow. These are such insignificant amounts that it is even difficult to name them - “A drop in the ocean”, it is much less. And based on this, you decided that there is an outflow of investments from the country? I just have no words.

GDP. What's wrong with GDP? It grew by almost 2% and no sanctions could hinder growth.

Rising inflation. Even I did not think about such low inflation rates. Here, too, the sanctions did not exert any pressure.

Everything happened exactly as I wrote a year ago)

Conclusion: the sanctions both last and this year will not be able to exert serious pressure on the course.

Central Bank policy.
Discount rate. Let's start with what to write correctly - the key rate, not the discount rate) From all that has been written, it is only true that a decrease in the key rate is a positive for the ruble. How did you decide that economic growth will stimulate inflation and even more currency growth? It largely depends on what this economic growth will be based on, it can, on the contrary, strengthen the ruble if this growth is due to exports, and our exports have grown more than imports over the past year.
Foreign exchange intervention. It's ... I just have no words. What is the increased demand for currency, what are you talking about? They're buying up the surplus! And by the end of the year, purchases increased due to the rise in oil prices, as there was a lot of surplus! It is being bought up for only one reason - to keep the exchange rate, to prevent the ruble from strengthening. If they had not done this, you would have remained Konstantin without "pants", since the rate would have been 52-54) But such a rate is not profitable for our economy, therefore they are buying. And as I wrote above, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency on the domestic market for 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018, that is, more than $ 4 billion. This is a serious amount for 1 month and all the surplus! What kind of currency deficit can we generally talk about in this situation?
Regarding the "forecasts" of the Ministry of Finance, there is nothing surprising) Last year I also remember writing that this scam was for people to buy up currency.

• Spelling mistakes, Michael, make it difficult to understand your thoughts.

Presidential elections.
There is nothing special to add, of course they will try to make people feel the improvement, but whether it really is, or not, and due to what or who was done, this is a separate topic.

Economic indicators.
GDP, inflation, there are numbers, there is nothing special to add. The reserve fund was not closed, but merged with the NWF, these are completely different things. The Reserve Fund currently has a balance of 1 trillion, which should be transferred to the NWF.
As before, I do not see any critical changes in the NWF that would give prerequisites for its depletion.

Well, now actually my forecast) The course will be in the range of 55-65, of course above 63 is generally unlikely, but I leave a small margin)
I will write out a little, although a lot has already been written above, I will repeat everything exactly.

1. Oil prices. Oil will rise in price, of course, rollbacks are possible during the year, but one way or another it will grow, you can read more above. Consequently, the inflow of currency will grow along with oil, thereby creating a surplus, which by itself will work to strengthen the ruble.

2. The volume of foreign trade. The general figures for the year have not yet been published, but we can say with confidence that the volumes have grown by about 25% over the year, I can tell you just a huge growth, while exports are growing more than imports. Accordingly, the balance increases and, consequently, the surplus of currency. Perhaps this year we will not see such an increase, but even more so there will not be a fall. Any increase in volumes, even if not very significant, will be positive for the ruble.

3. The economic indicators are slowly growing, this year the growth will be about the same, so there is no need to expect a serious weakening of the ruble.

While everything indicates that it will be very difficult for the dollar to rise above 60, a number of changes may occur during the year that will help it go beyond this mark, or may not. To be honest, the chance to break through 55 seems more real to me than to break through 65)

I want to warn everyone that this is all my personal opinion and reasoning, you should not invest money based only on my forecast, I just provided the analyst and my conclusions. Although my predictions were very accurate for 2 years in a row and fully reflected the picture of what was happening after, this does not mean that I cannot be wrong. You risk your money and think with your own head!

If you have any questions, write)

• Question: why, given all the positive or neutral factors that you described, do you predict a depreciation of the ruble?

  Konstantin, I'm talking about what I spoke about last year - don't expect a strong weakening of the ruble. If 5-10% is cheaper for you, which in principle can be equal to inflation, then let it be cheaper)

Michael, this is all great. So you write all the time “and I said ...”, “but isn't that what I told you ...”, “and I turned out to be right ...”. And under the previous article on this topic, you wrote the same thing about an article two years ago. But since you love to repeat this so much, then your words in the first commentary to the forecast for 2017: “The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 is no more than 70.”. Yes, you are really right !!! He's no more than 70! And you can also write “no more than 100” or “above 40”. And in the next comment you wrote “For a perfect balance, we need the 65 rate now, with a gradual increase to the 70 area”. The course, which “we need for a perfect balance,” as you can see, did not work out, and during the year it was never even done. Even though “you said ...”. And the most interesting thing is that we predicted the same in the direction of travel. I wrote that it will most likely grow weakly, and so will you, even you put higher numbers - so I gave them. Why don't you write now “But I told you that it will be less than 70, and it will be less than 70?”)

Write your numbers for 2018, describe the behavior of the ruble exchange rate, so that it does not coincide with my description (in 2017, it coincided, oddly enough!), And so that in 2019 you also have something to write about “and I said … ”. Because these are the main keywords in everything you write 🙂

• Already wrote at the same time, great. This is what I wanted to hear.

  Last year, you just distracted me a little from the topic. Why are you not satisfied with my forecast? I let people know that there would be no strong dollar growth! Isn't that what everyone hoped for when they bought under 70? As a result, there is no growth. Therefore, I did not even bother for the minimum threshold. In principle, I did not have a goal to designate it. For oil, for example, my forecast was generally ideal, I wrote that it would rise in price to 70, the price of oil is now 69.8, I think there is nowhere more precisely.
  All my forecasts were in a fairly narrow range from the values ​​at that time, if we assume that this forecast for a whole year was the most accurate of all that was written there, including more accurate than yours. Therefore, I consider your claims unjustified.
  Your forecast was generally uncertain and most likely upward, I’m not talking about oil at all, you wrote that the price will fall) Regarding the balance, we still need a 60+ rate, but due to serious surpluses of currency, they are simply not able to do this . I wrote that they will try to weaken the ruble, isn't that what they have been doing all year, buying up surplus currency?

  I wrote about your first two comments. First (!). In them I certainly did not “distract” you from the topic :-). Perhaps all your forecasts were somewhere in a narrow range, but here they were for the dollar (and this is the topic of the forecast, and not oil or something else) “less than 70, with a gradual increase to the area of ​​70”.). And what is “more accurate than mine” I don’t understand at all). This is no less vague than mine. I'm not making any claims, just observations. This time you wrote more specifically, which suits me more).

  If possible, insert it with a quote and completely, otherwise the meaning is completely different, you just redo what I have written. I wrote somewhere that the course will be 70? I never received a single concrete statement about the growth of the rate to 70. I wrote that the rate at the end of the year is not more than 70, making it clear to people that they do not strongly hope to return the money invested, how can I convey this information to you ? And if you mean it:
  “And proceeding from the fact that we need to raise production, the state will do its best to help export. For a perfect balance, we need a rate of 65 now, with a gradual increase in the area of ​​70. " So he is needed now, but it still does not work out and there is no statement that he will be 70 here either. The Ministry of Finance has already poured 800+ billion to buy out the surplus, and I believe that this is not weak support, since the surplus is very large, so far it has not been possible to pull it above 60. Although you claim that we have a shortage of foreign currency)
  I will repeat it again! I have never written that the dollar will grow strongly in 2017, especially in the region of 70, on the contrary, I replied that you will not see this figure very soon, here, for example, is the answer:
  “Marina, I apologize for the long answer, there were many cases. I think the 68 course will not be until the end of 2017, and perhaps only in 2018, so you just have to wait. ”
  Here I was asked specifically about the rate of 68. It was a year ago, that is, I made it clear to the person that there is no need to hope that such a rate will not be in the near future, that is, there will be no weakening of the ruble, so it does not exist, about which 70 do you even say?
  There are two options, either you are trying to "spite" me on purpose, or you are very inattentive when reading.
  Konstantin, you'd better follow yourself, there is nothing at all that you wrote that even closely reflects what is really happening now.

  "To spite on purpose", "they followed themselves."

  Here you are really hooked on this, because there is nothing more to complain about at all. And you are trying to expose something completely different from what I had in mind, what is it generally called?
  Let's go over everything else that I wrote a year ago.
  1.Oil will gradually rise in price to 70
  2. The sanctions have not put pressure on the rate for a long time and their extension will not greatly affect the rate.
  3. I can say with full confidence that the GDP in 2017 will not be in the red, perhaps the plus will not be significant, but it is definitely not worth waiting for a fall.
  4. Remember I told you that everything will change in foreign trade and the balance will grow by the end of the year and will even be more than in 2015? But you vehemently denied it! Well, here's the balance: November 2015 - 10107.7, November 2016 - 10405.7. December 2015 - 12662.9, December 2016 - 13217.7.
  Well, this year the growth will be very significant compared to 2016, especially in the first half of the year.

  Where of the above did I go wrong? That's right - nowhere! And how could I, in your opinion, say that the rate will be 70, if I myself wrote that there are a lot of constraining factors and only at the state level it is possible to somehow keep the rate and pull it up a little bit. Pulling it up a little, it does not mean that this will happen within a year or even two. I wrote that they would try not to let the exchange rate fall, as this would hit the economy, I wrote that they would gradually raise it to 65, and then to 70, but not a word that they would do it in one year. could write, as it may take a longer time and I understand that perfectly.
  You just need to read carefully and everything will be clear right away.

  🙂 Come on.
  1. I have not argued otherwise.
  2. I also did not claim otherwise.
  3. And here I have not argued otherwise.
  4. Of course I don’t remember, I have more than 11 thousand comments on the site! Why would I remember all of them? I did not “categorically deny it”. You came up with). I specially re-read all the comments, killing 10 minutes of my time. I won't do it anymore, time is money. That is, and even here, where you write “categorically denied,” this is absolutely not the case.

  And then twist it again. Wow, because you are so calling for attentiveness ... I did not say that “you said that the course will be 70”. So you love to cling to words, but you read it completely inattentively. I wrote that you claimed that the rate would be NO MORE than 70, and you were absolutely right, which is not surprising at all!) Just as if you had written that it would be below 100 or above 40.

  This concludes the debate on this topic, I will not publish more comments that flow from empty to empty - they are not interesting to anyone except you :-).

What is this currency forecast for 2018? This is not a forecast, but just a set of different factors and those analysis without specifics. Maybe so, maybe this way. You will decide up or down.

• Perhaps so, but the course will really depend on these factors, and how they will develop is difficult to predict, I do not want to point a finger to the sky. I decided: the ruble is down, the currency is up (this is indicated in the conclusions), and I also set out my vision for each factor.

2. Yes, I believe that USD / RUB will rise over the course of the year.

will grow in relation to 56-57?, that is, by the end of the year it will be higher - where you have blue marked levels 62-63.5? This is why questions arise.

Firstly, the range of 10 rubles is for a minute equal to the range of fluctuations in Euro in 1000 points! Is the forecast spread too wide?
You can give the same "forecast" as you give. Here is an example - “I predict a ruble range for 2018 of 50-60 rubles”

In general, I don’t believe in USD / RUB growth. Let's see how it really will be this year.
Thanks for the article.

• Alexander, for the forecast for the whole year, provided that the previous years were not so “stormy” the range of 10 rubles is normal. Or do you think it is better to be like many “analysts” who try to give an accurate forecast, and then turn over 10 times a year?
  Otherwise, I completely agree with you, I do not believe in a strong weakening of the ruble. And the fact that the article is not about anything, I also agree)

Hello Konstantin! I am from Kazakhstan, your forecasts are always accurate, at least until today, it was so! We all often talk about the collapse of $, is it possible? Since we also do not know in what currency to keep savings, so as not to lose ... if you answer, I will be grateful ... Thank you ..

• Hello Eileen. The situation in Kazakhstan does not seem to me well, but I do not adhere to the theory of the collapse of the dollar. I once wrote on this topic separately:

Last year I read with pleasure the article and comments of Mikhail and Konstantin) Sometimes it happens that reading discussions is no less useful than articles. Thank you!
Kostantin, do not delete Mikhail's comments, please)
Mikhail, be more restrained (although I am for freedom of speech)), and we will have more interesting comments to read!)

• I do not publish only what does not comply with the rules of commenting.

I think the forecast for the written oil will be $ 40-44 it will be hard for the ruble + a mistake in the elections President Putin will increase the sanctions within a year finishes the ruble Only after the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine will a gradual strengthening of the ruble

I don't understand what's the point in forecasting 55-65
let's say a person has rubles and he wants to buy dollars so as not to fly in ... or hand over the dollars and put rubles at interest ... or just rubles at interest ...
the essence is the same ... with the corridors written here, people who want to increase their capital will be at a loss.
after all, if the dollar rises in price, for example, then the current deposit rate in rubles will not return you the amount in dollars ... and vice versa ...

• Firstly, the forecast is given here for a whole year, and not for a short period, hence such a range! Secondly, no one here even thought to give advice on investments, there is only general information on the annual movement, and where and in what currency you should invest is your own business.

Mikhail plus for the forecast. Thanks. Although everything is clear. It's a shame that with the increase in oil prices, the ruble did not react (remained the same), which means it fell. And God forbid oil prices will also fall, then the ruble will also fall sharply ... ..So invest your savings in the yuan, or buy syndicates in China. We will definitely not lose here.

• Thank you) The ruble did not actually fall! The ruble would have reacted with serious strengthening to the growth of oil if the Ministry of Finance had not bought up billions of currency to support the exchange rate. If suddenly oil starts to fall sharply and the ruble weakens, the Ministry of Finance will throw these purchased surpluses on the market and prevent the ruble from falling sharply. The Ministry of Finance has serious sums at its disposal; they can change the value of currencies in one direction or another.

Good day! Konstantin please comment on the situation with the ruble on 04/12/2018, the connection with the Syrian events, if you convert into dollars or gold, your opinion is very important now ... Because there is a feeling of a critical situation!

• Hello, Elena. The Syrian events, like the recent sanctions against the oligarchs, had a very negative impact on the ruble and the Russian economy in general. But personally, I do not yet see a supercritical situation, it is happening as I predicted: the ruble exchange rate has moved away from unreasonably high values ​​and returned to its real range of 60-70. He did it, however, rather abruptly, due to the confluence of these two important fundamental factors, despite the increased price of oil. As for the Syrian events, it all depends on what happens next. And it's hard for me to assume this with high accuracy - I don't know what is in the heads of the heads of state. Now the situation is really tense, and this is reflected in the ruble exchange rate and the oil price.
  If you look at the technical analysis, then a “triple bottom” pattern has formed on the weekly chart, and if it works, the rate will move higher to the level of about 66-67.

  These sanctions are far from the toughest, so all these jumps are of a short-term nature with a gradual rollback to the 60th region, and possibly even lower. There are a whole bunch of factors that provide support for the ruble, so I would not hope for a rate of 66-67, as Konstantin writes. Of course, everything can change, but so far the reality is.

Now, with the ruble, what I described a year ago is happening. Everything is exactly as I wrote)

What's happening now:
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation directs additional oil and gas revenues to purchase foreign currency, obtained due to the higher oil price in comparison with the budget.
At the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance purchased currencies for 829 billion rubles. During 2018, the Ministry of Finance can buy foreign currency for about 2 trillion rubles. at oil prices of $ 54–55 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated at the end of December. At $ 60 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. And at 75-80?
If not for the purchase of the Ministry of Finance, the rate would now be 50-55. And not sanctions, not everything that Konstantin loves to write about could not radically affect the weakening of the ruble.
It's too early to talk about the 65-70 rate, I think there will be no such rate this year, but 60-65 is quite real, although there is a high probability of going back - below 60, it all depends on the ratio of planned purchases of foreign currency and the cost of oil.

Hello dear analysts!
You, Konstantin and Mikhail, have got an interesting couple of opinions that “make” this thread)))
In general, I am a person - far from stock market analyzes, especially independent ones. Therefore, I am interested in a competent opinion.
The question of the currency price is selfishly relevant for me. Probably now twirl your finger at your temple, but, as a person of traditional views, a provincial without a commercial streak, in order to save money, at the end of the year I bought dollars and euros for a decent amount for me. I took dollars just below 58. The goal is to preserve savings (well, at least I didn't buy bitcoin at 12)))).
At the peak of the jump, the dollars could not be sold, since I was leaving.
What do you think, is it worth selling now, tomorrow, for example, while a little above 60?
I remember about my own responsibility when making a decision, but I need advice))) And what to store, maybe, really, in yuan?
Ohokhonyushkii ... Well, the country, as far as I can remember, is like a powder keg.

• Hello, Elena. My opinion is not to sell. 🙂

  Hello, Elena. It is difficult to advise anything, I personally keep everything in rubles. The risk when buying dollars is very high, there are many factors that put pressure on the strengthening of the ruble. Now, for example, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the introduction of sanctions against this country will greatly affect the cost of oil, it will rise in price. And if the price of oil goes up, the inflow of dollars into the country will increase accordingly. The Ministry of Finance is now buying up billions of currency, only this does not allow the ruble to go below 60, if the Ministry of Finance reduces the purchase of currency, the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If, for example, oil rises to $ 85, then most likely the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If you are lucky and the value of the dollar remains at the same damage, then you will receive about 5-7% per year, which, in principle, can be comparable to inflation for this year, in the best case, you will save your money and possibly earn a little. But there is also a high probability of losing, because if the dollar rolls back to 58, you will lose% of inflation, and if below 58, then the losses will be much more serious, while you will be constantly nervous. Putting rubles in% you will get the same 7-8%, while you will feel more relaxed,% will compensate you for inflation and a little more will remain. In the current situation, the ruble will not go above 65, but it can easily roll back to 58, cardinal changes may occur within a year, but so far the picture is as follows.

Konstantin, especially for you, because you have been persistently writing for several years that the NWF is about to be exhausted, but this never happened. And then it turns out that it is not only not empty, but has grown by 23.2%, in fact, which I was talking about.
The National Wealth Fund (NWF) in June 2018 grew by 23.2% and amounted to 4 trillion 839.26 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $ 77.11 billion, the last time we had such an amount in $ back in 2014. Do you still believe in SWF depletion?

Http: //forum..html
Everything happens with the ruble as I wrote in this forecast: the first jump took place after the presidential elections, the second (now) is taking place in connection with the strengthening of sanctions, and according to technical analysis, a very clear figure was obtained that predicts this jump (monthly chart, figure “ flag ”- the screen was attached on the forum), which worked. There are fundamental reasons for the growth, technical ones - there are also, the current leap, according to the rules of technical analysis, should raise the dollar rate to the region of 69.

So far, my prediction is coming true as never before (hello to Mikhail)).

Further, it all depends on the news background. It is likely that a certain correction will follow, a rollback of the rate back. This will be an opportune moment for those who want to buy dollars and euros. After that - growth again, perhaps more systematic. By the end of the year, I expect the rate to be at least around 70. Perhaps more, and perhaps less. It all depends on the current situation. For example, with the same sanctions: will there be a second, more “terrible” wave, which is expected in 90 days. How the Central Bank will behave, what will happen to oil, and so on.

“While my forecast is coming true as never before”
The key word here is never) As far as I remember, your predictions never came true, but here you might be lucky to guess, according to the theory of probability, sooner or later you would be right. At the beginning of the year, not you, not me, could not have known about future sanctions, in that situation the rate could not go above 65, if you pay attention, the growth was only due to the sanctions. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that last year and this year I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, but on their own they would not be able to raise the exchange rate above 65 this year, the sanctions helped)
Now it is very difficult to predict anything, it all depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, if they stop buying foreign currency for a long time, then we will see a serious rollback, if they continue to buy in full, then it will be more difficult for the ruble to strengthen. We must not forget that August is considered the most difficult month for the ruble, then the exchange rate will stabilize. The sanctions sounded in the future are quite serious, but it is not known whether they will be applied in full, or even applied at all.
I must agree that today your forecast looks realistic, let's see what happens next.

Oh, well, straight). Quite to themselves come true. And now it is especially accurate. Naturally, I assumed about the sanctions: foreign policy does not change, which means that the sanctions, as they became tougher, will continue to be toughened.

But I am not writing this to show myself as "a tough analyst who can be trusted and followed unconditionally." Rather - just personally for you)).

The fact that no one doubted the sanctions, the point is which restrictions will be applied, and no one could have known about this at that time. The sanctions could be both softer and tougher than those that were introduced, I meant that. I do not exclude the possibility that the rate may fly above 70, but there is also a high probability of a rollback (this happened more than once) Let's see what happens next, another 3 months ahead.

Let's see, of course. So far, it turns out an average annual range of 60-70 with an upward trend (as I have written). At the same time, it may go beyond 70 by the end of the year or not by the end. The toughest sanctions are still planned for November, but already on the eve of them, the rate went up.

3. No, 60 and 62, in my opinion, will be gone. Perhaps 65, something in the area. Depends on how long he grows up.

Still, the ruble has more chances to fall against Russia, the Americans have already started an open economic war here and can put pressure on the Saudis to drop oil prices and start disconnecting from payments in dollars and other obstacles, and even we need to take into account the small competence of our leadership, I'm not saying any provocations on the military fronts of Ukraine and Syria.

The Central Bank refused to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of December, oil is under 80. The only counterbalance to the strengthening of the ruble is future sanctions, but many doubt that the previously announced restrictions will be adopted, most likely they will be softer. We expect the ruble to strengthen in the near future.

Economics, 20 Mar, 21:36

The ruble strengthened to its maximum since August 2018 amid the decision of the US Federal Reserve ... rate hikes in 2019. This strengthened the Russian currency. Well dollar against the ruble fell below 64 rubles. for the first time since August 8 ... barrel. Brent is trading above $ 68 a barrel. March 18 courses dollar and the euro fell to the level of the summer of 2018. The American currency dropped below 64.5 rubles. Cheaper last time dollar was traded on the Moscow Exchange in early August 2018. Well...

Economics, 20 Mar, 01:28

Ryabkov considered the refusal of the dollar to protect the economies of countries from the actions of the United States ... Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov believes that the refusal to dollar will increase the protection of the economies of countries from arbitrary actions of the United States, which ... many politicians and economic operators to the role of the American dollar". The Deputy Foreign Minister believes that from dollar you have to give up. This will increase the security of your own ...

Finance, 15 Mar, 19:54

The dollar fell below RUB 65. for the first time since October 2018 Well dollar at the auction on March 15 dropped to 64.96 rubles, ... the euro on March 16-18 will be 74.06 rubles, and dollar- 65.42 rubles, the Bank of Russia reported. According to the Intercontinental Exchange ...

Finance, 15 Mar, 18:08

Dollar exchange rate updated at least 2019 During trading on March 15, the rate dollar dropped to 65.11 rubles. - minimum since October 2018 ..., 92 rubles. The Central Bank has set the official rate for March 16-18 dollar at the level of 65.42 rubles, euros - 74.06 rubles. Price...

Finance, 13 Mar, 15:31

Mosnarbank, which fell under the sanctions, stopped making payments in dollars Eurofinance Mosnarbank, which fell under US sanctions, stopped making payments in dollars... This was reported on the website of the credit institution. “In connection with ..., starting from 11.03.2019, the bank does not make payments to dollars USA, "the bank said in a statement. Office for the Control of Foreign ... Abroad. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the sanctions a blow to dollar.

Politics, 13 Mar, 10:42

Foreign Ministry calls US sanctions against Eurofinance a blow to the dollar ... calculations. Washington itself is increasingly convincing the world community of insecurity dollar, pushes to abandon its use, "- said in the message. V...

Economics, 06 Mar, 11:29

The Ministry of Economic Development has worsened the forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2019 ... Minister Maxim Oreshkin. This is due to the “change in the euro / dollar", And not with the internal factors of the Russian economy, he explained. Ministry of Economic Development ... the forecast for the ruble “is more likely associated with a change in the euro / dollar than with some internal factors ”. Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development predicted the rate ... The exact forecast figure for 2019 is 66.4 rubles. per dollar, follows from the presentation to the speech of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, said "Interfax". Simultaneously...

Finance, 21 Feb, 03:38

Zimbabwe decided to get rid of the dollar and introduce a new currency ... the course means Zimbabwe is working for two different dollar- real cash dollars and digital dollars, which are priced much cheaper, explains the head of the Central Bank ... hyperinflation has withdrawn its own currency from circulation. Instead of Zimbabwean dollar residents of the country began to use dollars USA, British pounds and currencies of neighboring countries ...

Finance, 14 Feb, 16:07

The dollar exchange rate exceeded 67 rubles. for the first time since January 15 ... above RUB 67, follows from the trading data on the Moscow Exchange. Dollar reached a maximum of 67.045 rubles. At the same time, the maximum euro amounted to 75.53 rubles. January 8 course dollar dropped below 67 rubles. for the first time since December 17, 2018 ..., 865 rubles. January 24 at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange rate dollar dropped below 66 rubles. for the first time since December 7 last year ...

Finance, 08 Feb, 09:46

Gref called it dangerous to shake his finger at dollar holders ... that de-dollarization is necessary and strategically correct, he said. "Today dollar is a monopoly in the world, and any monopoly is evil, "said the head of Sberbank ... and in Swiss francs. Most of this portfolio is occupied by dollar and the rest - the ruble and other currencies The idea of ​​de-dollarization of the Russian economy ... He stressed that the United States often uses restrictions on operations in dollars for political pressure. Already in early October, the government presented ...

Politics, 05 Feb, 20:18

Russian Ambassador to Iran announced the rejection of the dollar in mutual settlements ... Dzhagaryan. According to him, the parties “have already essentially abandoned dollar". “We will rely on the Russian ruble and the Iranian rial, in ... Why did the Bank of Russia switch from dollars to euros and yuan ... and in very exceptional circumstances. So, the United States froze tens of billions dollars Iranian Central Bank (some of these locks date back to 1979 ... the world. The yuan could potentially become a global reserve currency along with dollar, said on January 9 the Governor of the Bank of England (British Central Bank) Mark Carney ...%, although about half of international trade settlements are still carried out in dollars... “The US economy surpassed the British economy in the second half of the 19th century ... The exchange rate of the dollar fell below 69 rubles ... in the currency trading of the Moscow Exchange, the ruble is strengthening in relation to dollar and euros. The rate of the American currency has been systematically decreasing for two ... Moscow time. North Sea oil is traded in the region of $ 54.65. 21 December dollar rose to 69 rubles. for the first time in three months. The euro overcame ... lost 21.1% of the cost to dollar dollar strengthened (by 6.3% in ... Chronicle of the weakening ruble: what will happen to the exchange rate in 2019 ... lost 21.1% of the cost to dollar and 15.5% against the euro. Two previous years, the ruble to dollar strengthened (by 6.3% per year ... they diverge very strongly - from 65 to 75 rubles. to dollar- depending on the scenarios under consideration, taking into account the different degree of pain in the new ... development of the US-China trade conflict. According to Sberbank forecasts, the average rate dollar in 2019–2020 it will be 65–70 rubles. at cost ... The Central Bank recorded an increase in population demand for foreign currency in October ... years by 4% and 22%, respectively. It is specified that the demand for dollars in October exceeded September indicators by 5%, demand for European ... The dollar has risen in price to 69 rubles. for the first time in three months ... loses in price following oil. At auction on Friday dollar has risen in price to 69 rubles., follows from the trading data. It happened ... by more than 5%. On Wednesday evening, the Russian currency went up to dollar and the euro amid news of the US Treasury's decision to withdraw ... The euro exchange rate exceeded 78 rubles. for the first time since late September ...: 40 Moscow time, the maximum was 78.12 rubles. Moreover, the course dollar at the Moscow Exchange exceeded 68 rubles. for the first time since November 14. By ... at the same time, the maximum was 68.48 rubles. per dollar... The day before, the euro rate also rose above 77 rubles. for the first time since ... the sanctions list, the ruble exchange rate began to strengthen. By 21:10 Moscow time dollar cost 66.97 rubles, but later corrected to 67.14 ... Worse than trend: why the ruble weakened in 2018 after two years of growth ... to rise in price dollar and the flow of capital from emerging markets to US assets. This year's index dollar(DXY) representing the cost dollar relatively major ... emerging markets have their own problems that are not directly related to the exchange rate dollar... Strengthening dollar may correlate with stress in emerging markets, but not ... Medvedev ruled out the superiority of one currency in the world ..., there can be no hegemony, ”the Russian prime minister said. Talking about dollar as a reserve currency, he recalled that a hundred years ago “was .... The document indicates that European companies are still trading in dollars in key strategic markets, exposing the business to monetary and political ... The dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below ₽66 ... follows from the data of the Moscow Exchange. So, at 21:25 alone dollar cost 65.95 rubles. By 21:30 it reached a minimum of 65.91 rubles. At the same time, the maximum per day dollar showed during the opening of trading - for him at 10:00 ... 74.9 rubles. On Tuesday, November 13, the euro exchange rate and dollar against the ruble began to rise after the value of .... At the end of October, analysts from the Gaidar Institute admitted that the course dollar can grow up to 80-90 rubles. in case if... Raiffeisenbank allowed the dollar to rise above 70 rubles. by the end of the year ... for oil and the absence of operations of the Ministry of Finance for the purchase of foreign currency. Well dollar by the end of 2018 it may exceed the mark of 70 rubles, they admit ... in the absence of intervention (it is possible that the mark of 70 rubles for dollar with current oil) ”, - says the review. On Monday afternoon, the ruble is trading around the level of 67.7 rubles. per dollar... Back in mid-October dollar cost about 65.5 rubles. Partially mitigate the deficit ... The dollar rate rose above RUB 67 on the stock exchange. for the first time since October 11 Well dollar on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 67 rubles. for the first time since October 11, ... the currency was sold for 67.02 rubles. Moreover, at the minimum dollar traded for 66.77 rubles. The euro at 11:44 was traded ... 76 rubles, and the minimum was 75.72 rubles. November 2 cost dollar at the auction for the first time since October 12, it rose above 66 rubles ... the fall in oil prices to $ 50-55 per barrel, the rate dollar may rise to 80-90 rubles. An Israeli citizen in Vykhino-Zhulebino was robbed for $ 357.5 thousand On Thursday, November 8, a man approached the police department for the Vykhino-Zhulebino district and said that his father, who had come to visit him from Israel, had been robbed and $ 357.5 thousand had been stolen from him. in the territorial police department, the information was confirmed by a source in the central office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. “About 18 hours ... The dollar exchange rate exceeded 66 rubles. Price dollar during trading on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since October 12 ... at the level of 66.14 rubles. By 17:00 Moscow time course dollar at the Moscow Exchange dropped to 65.97 rubles, having added since the opening ... for oil will fall to $ 50-55 per barrel, then the rate dollar can grow up to 80-90 rubles. Euro and dollar fell after Bolton's statement on anti-Russian sanctions ... the decision to impose new sanctions against Russia. Euro and dollar fell against the ruble on the Moscow Stock Exchange after the assistant ... of the closing level of previous trading. After the publication of Bloomberg, the euro and dollar against the ruble began to correct upward. By 15:50 Moscow time, the value of the euro on the Moscow Exchange reached 74.53 rubles. dollar- 65.43 rubles. The main danger for Russian markets in any ... Experts have named the conditions for the dollar to rise to 90 rubles. ... the preservation of sanctions, the ruble will collapse in relation to dollar up to 80–90 rubles. Course dollar may rise to 80–90 rubles, if ... the ruble exchange rate, it reaches the level of 80–90 rubles. per dollar with an oil price of $ 50–55 per barrel, it is very high, "- they say ... in 2021, and according to the conservative - up to 65.7 rubles. per dollar... In the Accounts Chamber, the ruble exchange rate included in the draft budget was considered ... The dollar fell below RUB 65. for the first time since October 1 Well dollar dropped below 65 rubles. for the first time since October 1. About this ... traded below 75 rubles. 8 August. The Central Bank has established an official rate dollar on October 23 at the level of 65.3 rubles, the euro rate ... JPMorgan analysts called the ruble undervalued ... such as the Turkish lira and the South African rand, which will weaken to dollar by 30 and 8%, respectively, follows from the analyst's currency forecast ... near 65.5 rubles. per dollar... It costs about the same now: on Monday dollar traded at about 65.6 rubles ... rubles in the short term, he said. All other things being equal dollar has a chance to return to the range of 60–65 rubles. in the fourth ... Venezuela refused to use the dollar in the foreign exchange market due to sanctions Venezuelan authorities have decided not to sell dollars in the foreign exchange market and use other currencies due to sanctions ..., the yuan and other currencies, except for the American dollar... As noted by Bloomberg, now one dollar officially stands at 63 Venezuelan bolivars, while ... in August, the national currency of Venezuela was devalued by 96% in relation to dollar... In September, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US will strengthen ... The Central Bank answered the question about the possibility of tightening dollar deposits ... in July, the president said that Russia did not intend to abandon the use of dollar, since it cannot replace it as a universal reserve currency ... The dollar exchange rate exceeded 67 rubles. Well dollar on the Moscow Exchange at the opening of trading exceeded 67 rubles, the rate ... according to the data of the Moscow Exchange. According to information at 10:20 Moscow time, the course dollar amounted to 67.06 rubles, the euro exchange rate - 77.13 rubles. Chapter ... of the socio-economic development of Russia until 2024, in which the course dollar should return to the level of 64-65 rubles. in October-December ... Kostin called complete rejection of the dollar a utopia ... the financial and economic block of the government is working on the issue of reducing the dependence of the economy on dollar, but there are no plans to abandon dollar payments. His plan ... - Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that to reduce the impact dollar on the Russian economy is necessary to "ensure stability in calculations." When ... does not go. As Siluanov explained, “no one is going to rule out dollar walking dollar, no one is going to forcibly change dollar savings for ruble ones or ... VTB spoke about the plan for de-dollarization proposed to the Ministry of Finance ... VTB noted that this is not a complete rejection of dollar, its withdrawal or a ban on circulation in the economy. “Our proposals ... Russia may be forced to increase settlements in national currencies, refusing to dollar... This, as he stated at the Moscow Financial Forum at the beginning ... because such currencies are less stable. “Only increase, replace [calculations in dollars] impossible. National currencies are more volatile, and this generates additional costs ... Kudrin supported the idea of ​​foreign trade in national currencies ... the head of the Accounts Chamber. Completely refuse payments in euros and dollars impossible, Kudrin emphasized. “Our main trading partner, the European Union, is unlikely ... the head of state said that Russia did not plan to completely abandon dollar... In early October, Kostin said that Putin supported his proposal ... from The Bell sources, the government is preparing its own project to abandon dollar, while the document does not provide for a complete de-dollarization of the economy. The authorities propose ... The media learned about the preparation by the government of a plan to phase out the dollar ..., clarifies one of the interlocutors. He assures that “the prohibition of settlements in dollars Economy, 01 Oct 2018, 19:02 ... Bank. Analysts predict the return of the Russian currency to 60 rubles. per dollar... The ruble is one of the three most undervalued world currencies according to the ... RBC methodology), the analyst predicts the strengthening of the Russian currency to 60 rubles. per dollar... The last time the Russian currency was traded at this level 9 ... currencies included the Czech crown, South Korean won, Thai baht, dollar and the Swiss franc. Dollar overvalued by about 7%, follows from the review of the bank. How...

Finance, 27 Sep 2018, 07:00

Banks in July imported into Russia a record volume of cash euros since 2014 .... The main reason is the threat of US sanctions imposing restrictions on settlements in dollars for state banks. Russian banks in July 2018 were imported to ... it is known since April, and amid fears of freezing settlements in dollars banks and companies decided to play it safe by purchasing euros, the macroanalyst of Raiffeisenbank agrees ... with a proposal to agree to settlements under contracts in euros instead of dollars if the need arises. The company asked contractors to sign an annex to ...

U.S. dollar- the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. It is denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. Banknote denominations in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but since 1945 they have not been issued anymore, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - $ 100, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: $ 100 - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - Capitol, 20 - White House, 10 - US Treasury, 5 - Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The 1 dollar bill on the back has a special design consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate documents issued by the government and stored in Washington DC.

It is believed that in order to counter the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design should be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic currency was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the ratio of prices for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos, and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the Gold Standard Act was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was first devalued by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold is now worth $ 35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only currency that could be exchanged for gold, while the exchange rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's settlement currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, the chronic budget deficit in the United States led to the fact that the amount of dollars held by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after the corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one, the Jamaican Monetary System, was created, which finally legalized the refusal of gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American producers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to virtually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and deutsche mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotations began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in emerging markets, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 is a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important development for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, into which the central banks of many countries - the creditor of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted at 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite the competition from the euro, today the currency of the United States occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for payments through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are processed through this currency and basic quotes are set.

The opinions of specialists regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $ 14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of China, which is in second position, almost twice. In addition, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors, who keep their assets in the US currency and during crises seek to convert them into dollars during crises, are contributing to the high dollar exchange rate, find a refuge from the elements of the market economy in US debt instruments.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in Russia for today, March 13, 2019, 17:39, is 65.7674 rub. (1 USD = 65.7674 rubles). The Bank of Russia dollar exchange rate for tomorrow, March 14, 2019, is set at the level 65.589 rub. Below on this page you can see a graph of the dynamics of the dollar rate against the Russian ruble (USD / RUB) for a week, month, quarter, for a year and for all time, find out the exchange rate for a given date, and also find out when, how and why the Central Bank sets the official course.

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The dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today, March 13, 2019 (Wednesday): 65.7674 rubles.

The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia dollar as of today, March 13, 2019, 17:39, is 65.7674 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the Central Bank lowered the dollar rate in Russia by -0.3089 rub. (-0.47%).

The dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for tomorrow, March 14, 2019 (Thursday): 65.589 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, March 14, 2019, is 65.589 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the dollar rate was depreciated by -0.1784 rub. (-0.27%).

Dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Russia - Graph

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2019 was 55.6717 69.9744 rub. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has weakened by -8.7211 rub. (-13.26%).

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current month was 55.6717 rub., maximum value - 69.9744 rub. Over the month, the US dollar has fallen in price against the Russian ruble by -3.4177 rub. (-5.2%).

Archive of the dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the selected date

In this table, you can see the dynamics of the dollar rate in Russia by days for a given date.

When and how does the Central Bank set the official ruble exchange rate?

The Central Bank sets the US dollar against the ruble for tomorrow, every weekday. The established rate begins to operate on the next calendar day after the day of establishment and remains in force until the next established rate becomes effective. Data are published on the regulator's website before 15:00 Moscow time (as a rule, this happens around 14:00)

Let's take an example: on Tuesday, the Bank of Russia set the dollar rate for Wednesday. This is the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow. In this case, on Tuesday, the rate for today is the rate set on Monday. On Wednesday, the rate for today becomes the rate set on Tuesday, and the rate for tomorrow (Thursday) is published on Wednesday around 2:00 pm Moscow time.

Separate logic applies on weekends and holidays. So, on Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sets the course for tomorrow, which is valid on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The new course for tomorrow will not be published until Monday afternoon and will take effect on Tuesday. The same logic applies to holidays.

How is the Central Bank's rate formed? To do this, the regulator averages the quotes of the USDRUB pair at trading on the currency section of the Moscow Exchange during the index session (from 10:00 Moscow time to 11:30 Moscow time). Then, based on the dollar rate, the Bank of Russia forms the official rates of the other 33 currencies. The exchange rate of the ruble depends on supply and demand in the market.

Why do we need an official dollar exchange rate, because it quickly becomes obsolete and does not “keep up” with the real dynamics of the foreign exchange market? It is the standard for government agencies in the preparation of reporting, and also serves as a convenient reference point for people far from the world of stock exchange news.

Average monthly dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation 2017, 2018, 2019

The average dollar exchange rate at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current year is 66.0656 rubles. The average dollar rate for the current month is at the level of 65.8378 rubles.